Euroopalikud väärtused, Beware of the alien nation, Beware of the truth that they seek

Anatole Kaletsky käib minu arvates välja üsna realistliku stsenaariumi, et mis Kreekas juhtuda võib. Nad suruvad veel suurema kasinuse peale Kreekale karistuseks vastuhaku eest, kuni Syriza populaarsus kaob ja valitsus kukub. Mitte, et Syriza oleks kasinusele vastu hakanud kuidagi mõtestatult, aga kära nad ju teinud on küll. Viimane ongi vasakpoolsete strateegia  reeglina, ise nad majanduse juhtimisega hakkama ei saa ilma, et piim ja leib poest ei kaoks ja et pildil püsida, nad närivad parempoolsete kallal. Syriza teebki seda, mida ta kõige paremini oskab, Merkeli ja Saksamaa kallal närida ja vinguda, endast ohvreid kujutada, “me teeksime küll, aga meile tehakse liiga”. Ma arvan sarnaselt Kaletskyga, et Tsiprase ja Varoufakise strateegia kukub läbi, seda on Euroopas läbi nähtud. Arvan, et vastaspool sellele mängibki: kasinus on küll halb, aga õppetund sellest on see, et kui valid teise poole, siis saad veel hullema ja neil on minu meelest õigus. Arvan, et see võib täitsa vabalt realiseeruda. Tulemuseks on arvatavasti veelgi suurem inimeste teineteisele vastandumine Euroopa riikides, see protsess on isegi meil Eestis alanud.

Kui rääkida vasakpoolsusest Euroopas, siis siin ei ole tegemist inimestega nagu näiteks kommunistid NSVL-s. Nonde jutus ja tegemistes oli mingisugune loogika või vähemalt sa said aru neist mingil määral ning suutsid nendega midagi argumenteerida. Need inimesed on teisest puust, nende ajud on mürgitatud postmodernismiga, nad valavad su üle tühjade loosungitega euroopalikest väärtustest jne. Priit Hõbemägi on minu meelest tabavalt kirjutanud neist. Jah, võib olla teen vasakpoolsetele liiga, nende seas on ka paremliberaale.

Why Syriza Will Blink

…..This brinkmanship is no accident. Since coming to power in January, the Greek government, led by Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras’s Syriza party, has believed that the threat of default – and thus of a financial crisis that might break up the euro – provides negotiating leverage to offset Greece’s lack of economic and political power. Months later, Tsipras and his finance minister, Yanis Varoufakis, an academic expert in game theory, still seem committed to this view, despite the lack of any evidence to support it…..

…..For the EU authorities, by contrast, a Greek default would now be much less problematic than previously assumed. They no longer need to deter a default by threatening Greece with expulsion from the euro. Instead, the EU can now rely on the Greek government itself to punish its people by failing to pay wages and pensions and honor bank guarantees.

Tsipras and Varoufakis should have seen this coming, because the same thing happened two years ago, when Cyprus, in the throes of a banking crisis, attempted to defy the EU. The Cyprus experience suggests that, with the credibility of the government’s default threat in tatters, the EU is likely to force Greece to stay in the euro and put it through an American-style municipal bankruptcy, like that of Detroit.

The legal and political mechanisms for treating Greece like a municipal bankruptcy are clear. The European treaties state unequivocally that euro membership is irreversible unless a country decides to exit not just from the single currency but from the entire EU. That is also the political message that EU governments want to instill in their own citizens and financial investors.

If Greece defaults, the EU will be legally justified and politically motivated to insist that the euro remains its only legal tender. Even if the Greek government decides to pay wages and pensions by printing its own IOUs or “new drachmas,” the European Court of Justice will rule that all domestic debts and bank deposits must be repaid in euros. That, in turn, will force a default against Greek citizens, as well as foreign creditors, because the government will be unable to honor the euro value of insured deposits in Greek banks.

So a Greek default within the euro, far from allowing Syriza to honor its election promises, would inflict even greater austerity on Greek voters than they endured under the troika program. At that point, the government’s collapse would become inevitable. Instead of Greece exiting the eurozone, Syriza would exit the Greek government. As soon as Tsipras realizes that the rules of the game between Greece and Europe have changed, his capitulation will be just a matter of time.

About Kristjan

Defitsiidi terrorismi vastase pataljoni eriüksuslane (finantsignorantsuse vastu võitlemise osakond). Treening: MMT, postkeinsism, Tartu Ülikool Majandusteadus
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