Wynne Godley and Alex Izurieta
For sustainable growth at an acceptable rate to take place, any further fiscal relaxation will have to be coupled with an expansion of net export demand, so that all three financial balances move toward zero. The more net export demand rises, the less the need for fiscal expansion. If net export demand were to rise so much that the balance of payments deficit reached 2 percent of GDP, and the private deficit reverted to zero, the need for further fiscal relaxation would roughly be halved, to $350 rather than $700 billion in 2006. It is difficult, in any case, to see how full employment can be maintained without the budget reverting to deficit–its normal state during the whole postwar period A substantial expansion of net export demand is easier spoken of than achieved. The classic remedy would be to bring about a dollar devaluation. However, by our reckoning, the size of the devaluation required — under the strong assumptions that world demand is unaffected and that the gesture is not neutralized by higher inflation — is very large, in the region of 20-25 percent. Unfortunately, there is no presumption whatever that market forces will automatically bring about the required adjustment in a timely way. In today’s world
of free international capital movements, devaluation of the currency has ceased to be a policy instrument in any normal or direct sense.
Another possibility is that other countries, which have so far depended on the United States through her growing external deficit to provide a locomotive force for their own economies, should be encouraged to engage in some form of coordinated reflation. Unfortunately, there exist neither the institutions nor the agreed-upon principles needed to bring such a thing about. In the very last resort, the United States should not forget that nondiscriminatory measures to control imports (not to be confused with “protectionism”) are permitted under Article 12 of the successor to the GATT.
Wynne Godley räägib isegi USA puhul impordi kontrollist. Ta ei olnud Mosleri lähenemisega nõus, et kulutame defitsiitselt ja laseme turujõududel kaubandusdefitsiidiga tegeleda(läbi valuutakursi liikumise), import on tulu ja eksport on kulu. Godley oli Kaldoriga ühes paadis selles küsimuses.
Mida ütlevad Mosler ja Wray tasakaalutuse kohta? Nad ütlevad: Imbalance? What imbalance? 🙂