Lapi targad

Peavoolu majandusteooria üldiselt eeldab, et intresside langetamine/tõstmine mõjutab investeerimist. Firmad peaksid rohkem investeerima hakkama, kui intresse alandab keskpank ja vastupidi. Eriti armunud on sellesse kontseptsiooni austria majanduskoolkonna teoreetikud, kes väidavad tihti, et boom ja bust ongi sellest tingitud, et keskpank oma intressiotsustest nö “loomulikust intressimäärast” mööda paneb ja tänu näiteks liigmadalatele intressidele tehakse valesid investeeringuid, sest raha on odav.

Firmade finantsjuhtide seas läbiviidud küsitlused muidugi seda ei kinnita. Austria treooria on suuresti religioon, mida niimoodi empiirilistele andmetele tuginedes falsifitseerida  osade arvates ei  saagi (Mises, Rothbard).  Peavoolu teooria ikkagi teeskleb vähemalt, et tegemist on teadusega.

Steve A. Sharpe and Gustavo A. Suarez

Finance and Economics Discussion Series Divisions of Research & Statistics and Monetary Affairs Federal Reserve Board, Washington, D.C.

Abstract

A fundamental tenet of investment theory and the traditional theory of monetary policy transmission is that investment expenditures by businesses are negatively affected by interest rates. Yet, a large body of empirical research offer mixed evidence, at best, for a substantial interest-rate effect on investment. In this paper, we examine the sensitivity of investment plans to interest rates using a set of special questions asked of CFOs in the Global Business Outlook Survey conducted in the third quarter of 2012. Among the more than 500 responses to the special questions, we find that most firms claim to be quite insensitive to decreases in interest rates, and only mildly more responsive to interest rate increases. Most CFOs cited ample cash or the low level of interest rates, as explanations for their own insensitivity. We also find that sensitivity to interest rate changes tends to be lower among firms that do not report being concerned about working capital management as well as those that do not expect to borrow over the coming year. Perhaps more surprisingly, we find that investment is also less interest sensitive among firms expecting greater revenue growth. These findings seem to be corroborated by a cursory meta-analysis of average hurdle rates drawn from firm-level surveys at different times over the past 30 years, which exhibit no apparent relation to market interest rates…..

Kui kuuled Lapi tarkasid rääkimas, et keskpank hoiab intresse kunstlikult madalana, siis on arvatavasti tegemist majandusrentnike huviga ülejäänud ühiskonnalt parasiidi kombel majandusliku rendi taotlemisega, mingeid vettpidavaid ja veenvaid teooriaid neil pole, mis nende juttu kinnitaksid.

About Kristjan

Defitsiidi terrorismi vastase pataljoni eriüksuslane (finantsignorantsuse vastu võitlemise osakond). Treening: MMT, postkeinsism, Tartu Ülikool Majandusteadus
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