The Euro Survival Explained By One Graph

hat tip to Tom Hickey at MNE

The Euro Survival Explained By One Graph (which also helps explain why the crisis will not be resolved)

target2 balances

The graph shows the balances of the Eurozone National Central Banks (NCBs) with the European Central Bank (ECBs). According to the Monitor it is “a key indicator of Europe’s balance of payments crisis and continues to be a biomarker of financial stability in the Euro area.”* As the Financial Times explains, “Target2 is the real-time gross settlement (RTGS) system owned and operated by the eurosystem. Target stands for trans-European automated real-time gross settlement express transfer system….It acts to balance out payment shortfalls and surpluses throughout the system, by transferring funds between respective national central banks as and when needed.” The methodological back story is interesting because the indicator was initially invisible to policymakers because (a) the ECB did not keep track of these numbers (it started publishing the numbers only at the end of October 2015), in part, (b) because on its balance sheet they net out to zero. Originally the indicator was put together from NCB balance sheets.  (The back story can be found in this article.) What the graph shows is that the German central bank has accumulated a huge surplus (at the height of the crisis this was also true of the Netherlands), while Greece (and a few other Mediterranean countries) has a huge deficit…….

Kui sa seda graafikut vaatad, siis näiteks hispaanlased on miinuses (nad on võlgu), sellepärast ka puudulik nõudlus seal ja sakslased on plussis, neile ollakse võlgu. Vahendajaks on Euroopa Keskpank, me nimetame neid lihtsalt eurodeks, mitte nii, et Hispaania on Saksamaale võlgu. Hispaania on Euroopa Keskpangale võlgu ja Euroopa Keskpank on  Saksamaale võlgu-nii on  seda õige kirjeldada.

Ma olen ise kirjutanud Target2-st pisut siin:

OSTSIN PAJULA RAAMATU

Pajula eksis oma raamatus. Ta ei saanud aru, kuidas TARGET2 töötab. Temale sarnaselt arvavad paljud, et mis vahet selles on , kui me eurot kasutame. Nad ei saa aru, et see on nüüd ühine supp kõik. Inimene, kes saab rahandussüsteemis toimuvast aru ja võrdleb eurosüsteemi näiteks tavalise ujuvkursiga süsteemiga, tabab kohe ära, et siin  on asjad väga erinevad. Ei ole nii, et rahvuslik keskpank otsustab, kas anda laenu Kreeka Keskpangale, see toimub automaatselt läbi TARGET2-e.

About Kristjan

Defitsiidi terrorismi vastase pataljoni eriüksuslane (finantsignorantsuse vastu võitlemise osakond). Treening: MMT, postkeinsism, Tartu Ülikool Majandusteadus
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