Kriis tuleb, aga millal?

Kriis tuleb, aga millal?

Riigi reservide kogumisele minek tähendaks, et keegi erasektoris peab hakkama elama võlgu, juhib tähelepanu Ragnar Nurkse instituudi teadur Egert Juuse.

Positiivsed majandusnäitajad toidavad optimistlikku tulevikuvaadet. Selles ei ole midagi iseäralikku. Küsimus on pigem selles, kas jätkuva kasvu ootused ka tegelikkuses realiseeruvad ning kas praegune kasv toetub tugevatele alustele, mille najal lõigata kasu tulevikuski.

 

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European Commission – Statement

Commission will not propose to weaken the deficit criteria of the Stability and Growth Pact

Brussels, 1 December 2017

The story run by some German media that the European Commission would propose to weaken the deficit criteria of the Stability and Growth Pact is purely invented. These rumours have nothing to do with the reality. It was never considered within the Commission and has nothing to do with the proposals the Commission is currently working on to deepening Europe’s Economic and Monetary Union.

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Is The Left Finally Waking Up To Eurozone Realities?

Väga mõnus lugemine Thomas Fazilt.

Is The Left Finally Waking Up To Eurozone Realities?

…The paper does just that, thoroughly detailing why the problem is, in fact, the euro itself (and to a lesser degree the EU), and not simply the policies that are commonly associated with it, and why Europe’s tribulations cannot simply be explained in terms of the conservative political orientation of leading member states, as integrationists often argue. Firstly, austerity did not simply materialise after the eruption of the so-called ‘euro crisis’, and was not called into existence by the Fiscal Compact; it is embedded in the treaties, meaning that the very architecture of the Eurozone left countries facing an external deficit – itself a result of the liberalisation of cross-border financial flows institutionalised in the EMU’s architecture, as acknowledged even by vice-president of the ECB, Vítor Constâncio – no alternative but austerity and internal devaluation as the only possible response to an external shock such as that of 2009 and onwards. If austerity is embedded in the treaties, it follows that ‘overcoming austerity’ would require treaty change, which, as we know, is close to impossible. Furthermore, entrenched austerity is just one aspect of the problem: the entire neoliberal textbook – prohibition of industrial policy, free movement of capital, financial liberalisation, etc. – is effectively sewn into the very fabric of the European Union…..

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Kattel ajab mäda

 

Ma vaatasin seda videot ja nad on paradimgast väljas ning ei saa aru, milles asi on. Ma teisi ei kommenteeri, vaid Rainer Kattelit, tema jutt algab 48:30, sest ta on vast minu blogi lugejale tuttav nimi.(esimene rääkija tegelikult puudutab fiskaalliidu teemat küll, aga ei sõnagi sellest, et see on vajalik rahaliidu toimiseks ja et ilma selleta ei saa).

Mulle hakkab tõsiselt vastu Katteli jutus see, et ta väidab, et on liiga palju raha ja küsib siis, et kuhu see raha läheb. Seda teeb ta seoses ECB varaostuprogrammiga või teisiti nimetatuna QE. See jutt demonstreerib, et ta ei saa aru, kuidas finantssüsteem opereerib.

ECB varaostuprogramm lisab likviidsust süsteemi, see “ei anna majandusse lisaraha”, mida investeerida. See on suur viga Katteli mõtlemises. Ta ei ole MMT mees ega ka mitte finantsinimene, et võib olla norin asjata. Valitsuse defitsiitne kulutamine “annab majandusse lisaraha”. Mis puudutab erasektori investeeringuid, siis need on nõudluse taga kinni, kapital otsib kasumit. Kogu MMT kontseptsioon räägib nõudlusest, kommertspankadel ei ole ju rahast puudust, mida välja laenata. Valitsuse suurem netokulutamine (kulutamine-maksud) lisab majandusse nõudlust.  Siin ei ole midagi MMT-le ainuomast, Keynes rääkis samast asjast.

Rainer Kattel kõlab hiljem selles videos nagu “supply-sider”, “UKs tarbitakse, aga investeeritakse vähe”, samuti räägib  ta jälle sellest, et Eesti Pank ostab varasid ja raha on tohutult palju. Ma ei tea, mis majandusinimene ta on, aga sellest on tohutult palju räägitud ja postkeinsistide blogides ning foorumites arutatud seda asja. Ma olen väga pettunud. Investeering loob säästu . Sääst on investeeringu raamatupidamislik vastaskanne. Nii ei ole, et Keskpank ostab finantsvarasid majandusest ja tekitab sellega investeerimisvõimalused.

Võiks ju väita, et ma võtsin asja kontekstist välja ja ta räägib üleeuroopalisest investeeringuprogrammist. No ok, aga ärge siis unustage, et EL-i eelarve pole piisavalt suur, et see saaks täita või kuidagi asendada fiskaalseid transaktsioone.

Kuulasin paneliste ja nad on omadega metsas. EMU probleemide lahendajat neist pole. Need probleemid on endiselt laual, millest aastaid olen kirjutanud. Olen lugenud paljusid ettepanekuid EL-i poliitikutelt ning tunneli lõpus valgust ei näe. Vasak- ja paremäärmuslaste populaarsus kasvab, ei näe mingit võimalust praegu EMU jätkusuutlikus suunas reformimiseks. Poliitikute jaoks ja isegi enamuse majandusinimeste jaoks on see teema kahjuks keerulisem ajukirurgiast. Tundub, et asjaosalised saavad aru, et EMU probleem on tasakaalutus liikmesriikide vahel, kuid nende pakutavad lahendused on endised , st neil ei ole lahendusi. Kohe võiks vastu vaielda, et aga poliitiliselt pole keskne fiskaalvõim praegu teostatav ja ei saa minu kombel hakata plätrama, et kõik on p….s eurotsoonis? Ma oleks oodanud, et keegi rääkinuks ausalt ja sirgjooneliselt euro probleemidest. Sellest, et milles see probleem ikkagi on.  Seda kõike oleks saanud teha arusaamise juures, et hetkel ei ole võimalik probleemi lahendada või siis selle probleemi täpsema määratlemisega oleks saanud küsimuse formuleerida, et mida edasi teha. Selle asemel ma kuulsin häma investeeringutest ja innovatsioonist, ärge saage valesti aru, need ei ole vähetähtsad teemad, aga peamine probleem seisneb kaubandusdefitsiidiga riikide puudulikus nõudluses ja kõrges tööpuuduses. Isegi mitte kasinuspoliitika pole peamine küsimus või probleem,  äärmuslik kasinuspoliitika ja nn struktuursed reformid kaubandusdefitsiidiga riikides on tasakaalutuse tagajärg.

USAs on föderaalselt kehtestatud miinimumpalk, föderaalne sotsiaalabisüsteem jne. Aga fiskaalsed transaktsioonid föderaalvalitsuse vahendusel osariikide vahel on vajalikud.

Panelistid on kõrgelt haritud ja kõrge kvalifikatsiooniga, muljetavaldavatest ridadest nende CVdes puudust pole. Aga sk408 oleks suutnud sisukama ja huvitavama ettekande koostada kui ükskõik milline neist laval olijatest. Ta ei oleks eksinud ka ECB võlaostuprogrammi osas.  Rääkides eliidist ja rahvast….

 

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As Trump targets immigrants, U.S. farm sector looks to automate

As Trump targets immigrants, U.S. farm sector looks to automate

Sellest siis neoliberaalide rassismijutud ka seoses illegaalse immigratsiooni ja oritööjõu peatamisega. Sama teema ka Brexitiga seoses.

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BREXIT VOTE ALREADY DELIVERING AS WAGES INCREASE

BREXIT VOTE ALREADY DELIVERING AS WAGES INCREASE

Britain’s Leave vote is already delivering for British workers, with starting salaries increasing at the second-highest rate since 2015.

The pro-mass migration Independent have been forced to report that: “Shortage of EU workers pushing up UK pay” with the Recruitment and Employment Confederation’s monthly survey highlighting a rise in wages.

Bloomberg have also reported that a labour market that is becoming less saturated is boosting wages, especially starting salaries.

Britain hasn’t even left the European Union and already the prospects for British workers are improving. Just imagine what can be done with a properly controlled migration policy and an end to out of control mass migration.

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Shame on Fitch. Social Security poses no risk to long term debt dynamics. Also, “revenue negative” lacks meaning for currency issuer.

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Most Progressives are Neoliberals in Disguise Professor Bill Mitchell

Seda videot võiksid vaadata näiteks meie sotsid. Bill juhib tähelepanu väga olulistele argumentidele, mis on valed ja mida kasutavad meie nn progressiivsed. No näiteks ei ole rikkaid vaja maksustada kõrgemalt, et valitsus saaks opereerida ja mingeid teenuseid osutada. Rikkaid võib kõrgemalt maksustada teistel põhjustel, sotsiaalne õiglus, egalitaarne ühiskond jne, aga mitte nendel põhjustel, millele enamus vasakpoolseid alla kirjutaksid.  Me nägime, kuidas vasakpoolsed Piketty ümber aplodeerisid. Mitte, et Piketty jutus poleks üldse sisu olnud, aga tulenes see vasakpoolsete armastus Piketty vastu nende rikaste vihkamisest. Nii kaua, kui nad sellel kursil jätkavad, ei erine nad minu jaoks neoliberaalidest ja tõenäoliselt nad jäävad ka kaotajaks selles mängus.

Aga kui viimase aja MMT videodest rääkida, siis rõhk paistab olevat raamistamisel ja jutupunktidel. MMT vastu häid argumente pole, küll aga on MMT nurjunud siiani just selle tõttu, et ei suuda ennast massidele arusaadavalt väljendada.

 

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The Good Dream is Factual MMT Warren Mosler

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Sir Peter Tapsell; Abolish the Euro PMQs24/10/2012

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Actually the magic money tree does exist, according to modern monetary theory

Actually the magic money tree does exist, according to modern monetary theory

….Furthermore, Mitchell and Fazi point out that the notion that neoliberalism is anti-state is a misconception. In fact, the state has been essential to the neoliberal project as became evident in the aftermath of the 2008 financial crisis. The state is not only required to bail out corporations and banks but to create new markets and in an authoritarian mould to police its citizens. However, Mitchell and Fazi intend to reclaim national sovereignty as part of a 21st century progressive vision. This is where modern monetary theory (MMT) comes in.

Bill Mitchell is one of its key proponents. MMT is one of those Alice in Wonderland, down the wormhole kind of concepts that neutralises every received wisdom – from that childhood conversation when your father sat you down to explain banks using saving deposits to invest in other businesses right up to politicians telling us that the UK is broke. In other words, prepare to be blown away and forget what you think you knew about money……

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Trump’s top economist offers solution to unemployment: More government jobs

Trump’s top economist offers solution to unemployment: More government jobs

 

President Donald Trump’s top economist has an unusual idea for dealing with the problem of long-term unemployment: Just have the government hire people.

That’s a New Deal-style idea more closely associated with highly progressive Democrats. But Kevin Hassett, the conservative chair of the White House Council of Economic Advisers, believes some Americans are so disconnected from the workforce that the best idea to get them working again could be a federal jobs program that would ultimately lead to private-sector employment.

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EU ‘superstate’ fear as Brussels chief Juncker plots for Chancellor for the whole of Europe

EU ‘superstate’ fear as Brussels chief Juncker plots for Chancellor for the whole of Europe

Brussels was accused last night of ‘hurtling at breakneck speed’ towards becoming a post-Brexit superstate after the EU set out plans for its own Chancellor of the Exchequer.

Jean-Claude Juncker’s European Commission has signed off a new ‘agenda for a more united and stronger’ Europe.

It includes a new European Union finance supremo able to go into member states and make ‘structural reforms’ to their domestic budgets – and accelerates Brussels’ timetable for closer integration.

The decision was last night greeted by Brexiteers as vindication for the UK’s Leave vote.

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Politicians don’t know where money actually comes from, poll shows

RT

Politicians don’t know where money actually comes from, poll shows

MPs never tire of telling the public ‘there’s no magic money tree’ to pay for vital services. But it appears most politicians have no idea where money actually comes from, according to a new survey.

Campaign group Positive Money commissioned polling company Dods to give a cross-section of MPs four statements about Britain’s money and banking system, and to ask whether they’re true or false. Just 15 percent were aware that new money is created when banks make loans, and existing money is destroyed when members of the public repay loans. Some 62 percent thought this was false, while 23 percent responded ‘don’t know.’ The Tories seemed to have a slightly better idea, with 19 percent answering correctly, compared to just 5 percent of Labour MPs.

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Rahakordaja elab

Tegin täna õepojale testi rahanduse kohta internetis(Maaülikool). Õigeks oli loetud vastus, et rahapakkumine kasvab, kui keskpank alandab kohustuslikku reservimäära kommertspankadele. Mine peavoolu teoreetikule seletama, et nii ei ole nagu te räägite, siis on vastus: me teadsime seda kõike.    🙂  Rahakordaja elab. Ma leian, et eurost suurem probleem on ignorantsus, mida akadeemia kultiveerib.

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MMT konverents 2017

MMT konverentsist videomaterjali

Seal on palju huvitavaid videosid. Ma just vaatasin  “MMT and Real World Financial Market Practitioners”. Meenutatakse jutte tollest ajast, kui QE algas. Debase dollar, cause inflation jne, mulle meenuvad sõnavõtud ja artiklid Eestis sel teemal. Äripäevas kirjutasid inimesed, et Fed on bad bank ja ECB ei ole bad bank, sest ECB polnud sellega veel alustanud. Kristjan Lepik kirjutas Tarkinvestor portaalis, et inflatsioon on pikema vinnaga asi ja fakt, et kohe inflatsiooni ei tekkinud, ei näitavat midagi. Samuti ootas ta mulli lõhkemist USA riiklikele võlakirjadele. Üleüldine sõnum tundus olevat, et targad turud varsti karistavad patustajaid. Neid inimesi peab rahvas ekspertideks ning arvab, et nad midagi olulist teavad.

Koomilisi sündmusi jääb ka sinna aega, kui USA võlg downgrade’ti, mis Treasury intresse ei mõjutanud jne. MMT oli siin teistest ees, sest mõistis, kuidas süsteem töötab.

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THE LEFT – Neutered By Neoliberalism

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Üks ÜRO dokument, millest sa peavoolu meedias ei kuule

Promotion of a democratic and equitable international order
Note by the Secretary-General

In fact, IMF advocacy of structural adjustment has privileged powerful
corporate interests and created a vicious cycle of dependence for borrower countries. As noted by Peter Dolack:
Ideology plays a critical role here. International lending organizations … consistently impose austerity. The IMF’s loans, earmarked … to pay debts or stabilize currencies, always come with the same requirements to privatize public assets (which can be sold far below market value to multi-national corporations waiting to pounce); cut social safety nets; drastically reduce the scope of government services; eliminate regulations; and open economies wide to multi-national capital, even if that means the destruction of local industry and agriculture. This results in more debt, which then gives multi-national corporations and the IMF, which enforces those corporate interests, still more leverage to impose more control, including heightened ability to weaken environmental and labour laws.

lisaks:

IMF still appears more committed to the obsolete neoliberal economic model.

Tasub lugeda, see on algusest lõpuni kriitiline IMF-i aadressil.

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Austerlaste lollused

The New York Times Publishes Op-Ed by a Crazed “Government Deficits Don’t Matter” Economist

…On Wednesday, she was back at it with an op-ed in The New York Times, where she had this to say:

 Because bigger deficits wouldn’t wreck the nation’s finances… The government’s deficit is always mirrored by an equivalent surplus in another part of the economy.

This is simply thinking that doesn’t look at the full picture, Money borrowed by the government squeezes out private sector borrowing. That is savings are used to fund the government bureaucracy instead of the creative, competitive private sector.

It is very difficult to understand how someone can not grasp this.

 

Mina leian, et kõige väheminformeeritud on majanduses ja rahanduses just austerlased. See artikkel annab ka järjekordselt ülevaate nende rumalusest.

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The New York Times ja Stephanie Kelton

How We Think About the Deficit Is Mostly Wrong

…..Are the proposed tax cuts a huge giveaway to the rich? Most definitely. Will they, as advertised, create a booming economy with benefits that trickle down to everyone else? I don’t think so. Mr. Trump’s plan will widen the country’s already dangerous wealth and income gaps, and because the gains go mostly to those at the very top, the tax cuts won’t do much to promote broad-based consumer spending or overall job growth.

That’s enough to reject the plan. But it would be unwise to oppose tax cuts, or any other federal legislation, simply because they add to the deficit.

Why? Because bigger deficits wouldn’t wreck the nation’s finances…..

 

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Tavaline poliitiline tsirkus USAs

Mick Mulvaney Is Now a Keynesianslate.com/…/mick-mulvaney-says-tax-cuts-will-only-create-growth-if-they-lead-to-deficits

….That group apparently includes White House budget chief Mick Mulvaney, who during his time in Congress was known as squawking deficit hawk. Back during the 2011 debt ceiling crisis, he famously said that it would be better for the government to default on its obligations than pass a clean hike and warned that “we desperately need is structural change that stops Congress from continuing to spend a bunch of money we don’t have.” He also co-authored a budget amendment known as “cut, cap, and balance”—the name says it all—and once introduced an amendment that would have made Congress offset Hurricane Sandy aid with cuts to other spending, just because.

And today? Well, now Mulvaney’s job is to sell a tax plan that will almost certainly set the federal government back 13 figures. His new stance is not only that deficits are good, but they are essential if anybody wants tax cuts to grow the economy.

“I’ve been very candid about this. We need to have new deficits because of that. We need to have the growth,” Mulvaney recently said, according to Bloomberg. “If we simply look at this as being deficit-neutral, you’re never going to get the type of tax reform and tax reductions that you need to get to sustain 3 percent economic growth.”…..

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Itaalia eksperiment

Italy’s Great Experiment

Italy is experimenting with giving tax-cuts to its citizens in exchange for public services―such as pulling weeds and cutting grass. Wow. What an amazing idea! The government issues a tax credit, and uses it to pay a citizen in exchange for the citizen’s services to the government. The government could even make this arrangement more formal by printing the tax credits on pieces of paper called “LIRIES” (or something like that) and paying for the weed-whacking services with this “cash.” That way the citizen who’s earned the “LIRIES” has the option of using them as payment to another citizen (who’d also like a tax-cut) for, say, a bag of potatoes. So, the first citizen pulls some weeds, gets paid in “cash” and then uses the “cash” to buy her dinner. If you thought about it, you could possibly run an entire economy in this fashion…..

The Great Italian Experiment (part 2)

….And these methods of obtaining Euros to spend are falling short of what Italy needs to pay its citizens to do. So…. Italy has decided to pay its citizens with tax-credits, and then (why not?) with paper tax-credits. And then, presumably, the EU says, “Whoa, hold on here! It looks like you are printing your own money, which is not allowed by our rules!”

We could then proceed to an International Court in which Italy claims it isn’t breaking the EU rules because it isn’t printing “money” but is simply issuing tax-credits. The EU would then have to argue that “tax-credits” are, in fact, what “money” is! In making that argument, it would be forced to explain everything we’ve just explained which would, in turn, reveal and establish not only the absurdity of the Eurozone monetary system, but also that the whole world (including the U.S.) is misunderstanding and mismanaging its money system—and unnecessarily making a vast majority of the world’s citizenry miserable in the process.

Ka eesti keeles on varem sellist ideed viljeletud.

Marek Kruusenvald:Majanduse elavdamise ning inflatsioonimõjude ja tööpuuduse vähendamise meede

Võib olla on Marek käinud Itaalia valitsust nõustamas?  🙂

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Simon Wren-Lewis: Why is MMT so popular?

Why is MMT so popular?

Iseenesest positiivne, et tema kaliibriga mees sõna võtab, aga möga ajab ta. Eks neil ole hirm, sest nende elutööl on oht mõttetuks muutuda.

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Poola Solidaarsus protestib Junckeri vastu

Solidaarsus oli iseseisev ametiühing Poolas, mis aitas kommunistliku režiimi purustada. Nüüd organiseerib Solidaarsus anti-EL proteste.

Anti-Juncker protest hits Warsaw as Polish defiance of ‘EU occupation’ spills onto streets

 

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Money is Created Out of Nothing (Ben Bernake, Chairman of the Federal Reserve)

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