Eesti majanduspoliitika

Economist prognoosib Eestile kasinuspoliitika jätkumist

Märtsis toimuvate parlamendivalimiste tulemusi ja neist sõltuvaid tagajärgi on praegu veel võimatu ette ennustada, kuid üldiseks poliitiliseks suunaks jääb kasinuspoliitika, kirjutab Economist, vahendab BNS

Ülemaailmsest majanduskriisist ja euroala kriisist taastuva Eesti tulevased valitsused jäävad truuks rangele eelarvepoliitikale, mida võib-olla ilmestab mõni suurem projekt kasinuspoliitikast kurnatud avalikule arvamusele meele järgi olemiseks, märgivad parempoolse lehe ajakirjanikud.

Positiivsed arengud Eesti ekspordi sihtriigis Rootsis toetab majandust, seda tasandab tagasikäik Vene turul.

Economist ennustab Eestile 3-protsendilist majanduskasvu, 2,7-protsendilist inflatsiooni ja 0,2-protsendilist eelarvemiinust SKP suhtes.

Valimised on selles suhtes non event. Erutuda pole mõtet, ka poliitika äärealadelt ning uutelt tulijatelt pole midagi peale kasinuse oodata. Ma arvan, et jätkavad sotsid ja reform. Sotsid on küll lubanud makse tõsta, et oma kulutustele kate leida, kuid see neil tõenäoliselt ei õnnestu ja hirmudeks põhjust pole minu meelest.  Kuulsin raadiost just, et reformi populaarsus on 32%, keskil 23% ja sotsidel midagi 21,..%, IRL-l 16%. Arvan, et uuued tulijad löövad pildi vaid asjatult segi ja ega neilt midagi oodata majanduslikus plaanis pole ka.  Erakondade majanduspoliitikas on erinevused kosmeetilised, nagu Stalnuhhin ütles: meie majanduspoliitikat tehakse rahandusministeeriumist.  Nad võivad makse veidi ümber mängida ühele ja teisele poole ning siis teineteist süüdistada pärast, et see ei töötanud või see ei töötanud :)

Sellist majanduspoliitikat viljeledes peame me laias laastus lootma vaid sellele, et suudame oma kaubanduspartnerid EL-s üle lüüa oma ekspordiga. Meie valuutakurss langeda ei saa, samuti ei saa me sisenõudlust toetada valitsuse defitsiitse kulutamisega. Eksport on ainuke variant, kui tootlikkus ei tõuse kiiremini kui ekspordi sihtriikides, siis peame oma palkasid hoidma tõusmast kiiremini kui need seal tõusevad(muuseas Saksamaa tegi seda ja kõik kiidavad taevani, selle tegemise ajal peeti Saksamaad Euroopa majanduspiduriks ja ega ta praegugi tiiger pole, aga see selleks, kaubandusbilanss on positiivne ja seda kummardatakse). EP analüütikute väited on täiesti õiged, sellise poliitika raamistikus teist varianti ei ole. Natuke rase ei saa olla.

Ka rahvas ei taha “laristajaid”, et selles suhtes midagi ette heita ei saa poliitikale ja poliitikutele.

Arvan, et Economisti prognoos SKP kasvule on liiga optimistlik, aga mine tea.

Chicago gave hundreds of high-risk kids a summer job. Violent crime arrests plummeted.

Chicago gave hundreds of high-risk kids a summer job. Violent crime arrests plummeted.

A couple of years ago, the city of Chicago started a summer jobs program for teenagers attending high schools in some of the city’s high-crime, low-income neighborhoods. The program was meant, of course, to connect students to work. But officials also hoped that it might curb the kinds of problems — like higher crime — that arise when there’s no work to be found.

Research on the program conducted by the University of Chicago Crime Lab and just published in the journal Science suggests that these summer jobs have actually had such an effect: Students who were randomly assigned to participate in the program had 43 percent fewer violent-crime arrests over 16 months, compared to students in a control group…….

Ungari on õigel teel

2015 debt financing plan: Hungary to become more self-reliant

Hungary’s plans to raise new foreign currency financing in 2015 are limited to residency bonds and the Premium Euro Hungarian Government Bond (PEMAK); no other foreign currency bond will be issued. The State Debt Management Agency (ÁKK) will continue to rely heavily on the forint-denominated government bond market, as well as demand from retail buyers, Deputy CEO László András Borbély said in a presentation of the 2015 debt financing plan on Thursday.

Ungari on õigel teel ja püüab välisvaluutas denomineeritud võlga vähendada. Nad ei ole päris paradigmas muidugi, kui räägivad “erasektori tahtest forintivõlga hoida” jne. See on Ungarile ainuõige tee ja tundub, et nad on aru saanud,  riigi  majandus ei ole suveräänne, kui see laenab välismaal väljastatavat valuutat.

Meie valitsus valiks tõenäoliselt antud situatsioonis kursi fikseerimise ja laenaks eurodes põhjendusega, et intress on madalam. Sellega oleks kiitus ja aupaiste rahvusvahelistelt finantsinstitsioonidelt garanteeritud, tõenäoliselt ka asjaosaliste poliitiline karjäär EL-s.

MMT is not a religion

by Bill Mitchell

Friday lay day – public spending is not necessarily matched by tax revenue in the long-run

……First, in relation to Russia or any other nation that is suffering problems that come from its external sector I say the following. MMT is not a religion. It is not a panacea. It is not a policy code. It is not a solution.

MMT is a way of thinking about modern monetary systems. I am currently working on a new book which will trace the evolution of MMT – its antecedents (the shoulders the current proponents have stood on) and where it differs, say from the Keynesian thinking that was dominant in the Post WWII period up until the mid- to late 1970s. It will be published by Edward Elgar in late 2015 and is progressing well.

MMT provides an organising framework for understanding the possibilities available to a currency-issuing government and the limitations that a currency-using government (such as a Member State of the Eurozone) faces. It allows us to understand in a deeply-grained way, the relationships between the treasury and the central bank and the relationship between the government sector in aggregate and the non-government sector.

No ‘Keynesian’ literature up until the 1990s (or beyond for that matter) provides the level of granularity that the MMT literature that we have developed over the last 20 years provides. But all that will come out in the book.

A common misconception seen in the derivative literature on MMT (which is dominated these days by blogs, social media pages and tweets) seems to think that MMT says that currency-issuing governments are omnipotent and can solve any crisis just by spending. None of the main proponents of MMT over the last 2 decades has ever made statements to justify such a view.

A nation that has a narrow industrial base, has one dominant source of export revenue (for example, oil) which experiences significant price volatility, and relies on imported food faces significant real constraints if the export revenue collapses.

Then superimpose politically-motivated embargoes on that nation’s ability to import goods and services and the situation becomes highly problematic.

Even if that nation’s government issues its own currency, all that means is that it can buy and bring into productive use any real good and service that is for sale in the currency it issues.

It cannot buy imports that are for sale in another currency. It cannot set the terms that govern the exchange of its own currency and other currencies it might need to buy those imports.

Such a nation then may turn out to be very poor in material terms if its export revenue fails and the currency-issuing government cannot easily expand the real resources available to alter that state. The government can only ensure that all the real resources it can purchase are being used to their maximum, if that is a desirable outcome. But that is the limit of its currency-issuing capacity.

A nation with limited real resources has limited prospects for material welfare. That is the fact. The constraint is real and the infinite financial capacity the government might have in its own currency cannot alter that……

MMT vastus tingimusteta põhisissetulekule

Kindlasti oled sellest kuulnud enne, Tingimusteta Põhisissetulek näiteks või on seda kuidagi teisiti nimetatud BIG (basic income guarantee). Idee iseenesest seisneb selles, et riik maksab inimestele tingimusteta raha, mille eest siis need saavad ära elada. Sellega tavaliselt tegelevad ja seda ideed nö promovad inimesed, kel majanduse toimimisest ja rahandusest mingit arusaama pole, aga mitte ainult muidugi. Nad räägivad, et tootlikkus kasvab ja kõigile ei jätku enam varsti tööd, kui inimestele põhisissetulek garanteerida, siis nad teeksid sellist tööd, mis neile meeldib jne jne. Siin on MMT kriitika niisuguse programmi suunal. Ma olen mõnega isegi vahest püüdnud diskuteerida, kuid tavaliselt sellest midagi välja ei tule, ebaloogilisi väiteid tuleb trobinal neilt.  Ma ei väida, et sotsiaaltoetusena niisugune asi töötada ei saa, aga see idee oleks siis hoopis erinev sellest, et inimesed elavad ilusti ära ilma raha nimel töötamata ja saavad siis enda kunstiandeid arendada, enda andekusele ja kutsumusele vastavat tööd teha vabast tahtest, sisemisest kutsumusest vms.  Kergelt meenutavad zeitgeistlasi. “monetary cranks”

Pavlina R. Tcherneva

The Job Guarantee: Delivering the benefits that Basic Income only promises A Response to Guy Standing

meie ajakirjandusest see teema ka läbi jooksnud:

Tingimusteta põhisissetulek kodanikuõiguseks?

Mitmeid raadiosaateid on meil olnud, kus eestkõnelejad seda ideed kiidavad. Šveitsis viidi isegi selleteemaline referendum läbi, mis aga läbi kukkus.

John Gray – “Half of Europe is being sacrified in order to solve the 20th century German question”

Harper’s Magazine organised in October 2013 a conference on Europe inspiring its February issue (and also its already classic cover).

Here is the pessimistic view of John N. Gray on Europe, engulfed in its resurrecting daemons, at the center of which Germany stands.

“This is one of these periods in history where what we ought to do, what enlightened opinions ought to implement, what can be done, what tweakings and reforms can occur are really secondarily significant to what is actually happening and likely to happen.”

“The project of transcending national sovereignty in Europe is advancing through a complete national project, that is German.”

“Large-scale projects like European Union project, which run into insoluble difficulties are never rationally dismantled. They simply collapse.”

“One of the fundamental errors of American opinion is that to assume that Europe can recapitulate American nation-building.”

Kreeka presidendivalimiste esimene voor kukkus läbi

greek parliamentCrucial Greek Presidential Vote Fails in 1st Round

Parliament has failed to elect a new Greek president in the first round of voting, leaving another two tries before the government falls and early elections have to be called.

The conservative-led government’s candidate, former European Commissioner Stavros Dimas, received 160 votes Wednesday, far short of the 200 needed for an outright win.

The two-party coalition has 155 seats and requires backing from opposition or independent lawmakers to ensure Dimas’ election in the third and final round, when 180 votes will suffice.

Asi jääb kolmanda vooru peale, aga 20 häält on puudu, et 180 täis saada. Kui vahepeal imesid ei juhtu, siis tulevad Kreekas parlamendivalimised uuel aastal.

Ostke tikke ja seepi

pesuseepJärgnev artikkel ilmus 2011

Hyperinflation is inevitable: How you can prepare

“Inflation usually lags monetary increases by about two to three years. We are sitting right at 2.5 years from the doubling of the money supply.”

Või võtame juttu kodule lähemalt

Kristjan Lepik:

Rahatrükk tundub üks mõnus asi – trükid muudkui raha juurde ja lahendad probleeme. Eriti see USA viimaste aastate kahe rahatrüki vooru (QE1 ja QE2) taustal. Kuid siin oluline mõista, et esiteks ilmnevad sageli rahatrüki mõjud pikema perioodi jooksul (inflatsioonirisk) ning teiseks – ühtegi strukturaalselt viga rahatrükk ei paranda, lisab vaid turgudele likviidsust ning annab mõnevõrra aega.

 

Keskpankade võlakirjaostuprogrammid pole kuskil inflatsiooni põhjustanud, ei saagi põhjustada, aga kui teoreetiliselt jääb asi arusaamatuks, siis võiks tagajärgedele tähelepanu pöörata.

Itaalia on ainuke riik eurotsoonis, kus enamik inimestest arvab, et euro on halb nende riigile

italy euroGenerally speaking, do you think that having the euro is a good or a bad thing for Italy?

  • 47% A bad thing
  • 43% A good thing
  • 9% Can’t decide
  • 1% Don’t know

Itaalia on ainuke riik eurotsoonis, kus enamus elanikkonnast arvab, et euro on nende riigile halb.

Is Italy becoming the Eurozone’s most anti-euro country?

Umbes poole moodustavad ka Itaalia eurovastased parteid. Seega asi on neil enam vähem paigas. Ma mõtlen, et meil ka Eestis tegelikult. Rääkisin mõni päev tagasi inimesega, kelle kõrgharidusega tütar töötab Soomes koristajana. Ta ütles mulle, et temale meeldib Taavi Rõivas ja Reformierakond.  Muidugi, ega Ansip üleilmset finantskriisi ei põhjustanud.

MMT seletab

MMT seletusi riigirahandusest ilmub järjest rohkem, sedapuhku siis Austraaliast.

THE CONVERSATION

Warwick Smith, Research economist at University of Melbourne

Why the federal budget is not like a household budget

…..So, here lies the key insight. Inflation is the limiting factor for government expenditure, not taxes or borrowing. A government that can create money doesn’t need your money from taxation or from borrowing in order to spend. There is no limit to how much money a sovereign government can spend, but if government spending plus private spending exceeds the productive capacity of the economy then you get inflation.

The real calculation faced by government should not be about how much money the government has – it has an infinite amount. The calculation should be about the capacity of the economy to absorb government spending without driving inflation…….

Kommentaarium artikli taga kubiseb MMT sõbralikest kommentaaridest. :)

Saadikud ründavad komisjoni kasinuspoliitikat

euroby Press TV

MEPs slam European Commission policies

Members of the European Parliament have vented their anger over the European Commission’s economic policies such as cuts in public spending and increased taxes, Press TV reports.

During a European Parliament debate in Strasbourg on Tuesday, members agreed that austerity measures have led to a social crisis in the European Union and that the euro has failed as a currency.

“The currency that does not work leads to people who have no work. Many across this chamber who belong to groups and institutions that still pay lip service to the currency that does not work, know in their heart of hearts that I am speaking the truth,” said British MEP Patrick O’Flynn during the debate.

Recent figures show the bloc’s jobless rate stands at 11.5 percent. The unemployment rate is even worse among those aged between 15 and 24, as 23.3 percent are without work.

“I would agree with you and many others who say that the current status quo is economically nonviable. Having a common currency without having common fiscal, common social, common environmental policies is not working,” said Belgian MEP Philippe Lamberts.

The worsening debt crisis has forced EU governments to adopt harsh austerity measures and tough economic reforms, which have triggered massive protests in many European countries.

European countries are struggling with an economic crisis that erupted in early 2008, leaving millions unemployed and in financial distress.

According to official figures, over 125 million people across the European Union, about a quarter of the bloc’s entire population, either live in poverty or are at the risk of poverty……..

Vähemasti on mingisugune debatt/arutelu toimumas. Meie Eestis oleme küll selles osas nurjunud ja ma mõtlen just kodanikena, mitte ma ei mõtle meie poliitilisi jõude ilmtingimata. Kas mina ka? Jah, ma olen nurjunud selles mõttes, et kuhugile ma ei ole suutnud neid ideid viia. See diskussioon puudub meil täielikult, seda ei olnud viimaste europarlamendi valimiste ajal ka, kuigi oleks pidanud olema juba ainuüksi sellepärast, et näidata inimestele, mis see EL siis tegelikult on, kui meie saadikutel puudub igasugune võimalus fiskaalpoliitika osas midagi ära teha.

Täna on huvitav päev, sest täna toimub Kreekas presidendivalimiste esimene voor.  Antonis Samaras peab saama 200 häält enda kandidaadi toetuseks, tal neid hääli ei ole, aga kõik on veel ebaselge. Kahes esimeses voorus on 200 häält vajalikud 300st ja kolmas on 180. Kui kolmes voorus presidenti valida ei suudeta, siis saadetakse parlament laiali ja toimuvad ennetähtaegsed parlamendivalimised, mis tähendab tõenäoliselt Syriza ja Alexis Tsiprase võitu nendel valimistel. Kasinusele Tsipras alla ei kirjuta ja on  lubanud bailouti tingimused üle vaadata ning neist lahti öelda. See kõik tuleb ajal, mil kasinuspoliitika vastu on nö “ühisrinne” tekkimas Euroopas. Kui Kreeka võlakriisi ajal süüdistati Kreekat raamatupidamise võltsimises ning moraalne sentiment oli suuresti, et nad ise väärivad seda, siis nüüd on teised tuuled puhuma hakanud.

Greece presidency vote raises fears of political turmoil

But because the second round threshold is also 200 votes, a third round is likely to then take place on 29 December with a final threshold of 180 votes – but that will still be difficult for the government to achieve.

“It’s unlikely this Parliament will elect a president,” says Nikolas Voulelis, the editor of the left-leaning Efimerida ton Syntakton daily. “If the government gets less than 165 to 170 in the first ballot, it will be very difficult for them to reach 180 by the final vote.”

Sellepärast ongi tänaseid tulemusi huvitav jälgida. Kui nad saavad täna juba 180+  häält enda kandidaadi toetuseks, siis on ülejäänud kaks vooru suure tõenäosusega vaid formaalsus ja troika ning kasinusmeetmed on jälle võitnud.

There is a real prospect that if snap elections take place early next year they may not lead to a government being formed, culminating in a second round of polls the following month. If unlikely political alliances do lead to the creation of a new administration, it will be under intense pressure from its first day in office. The odds on its long term survival are low.

Greece is definitely back. In fact, it never really went away.

lisa:

Kreeka presidendivalimised ei ole salajased

Greece’s crucial Presidency vote: what’s the procedure?

At 7 pm local time the roll call procedure will start in the Greek Parliament. Three hundred lawmakers will be asked to say either the name of the sole presidential candidate “Stavros Dimas” or just “Present” if they don’t agree

Ma pean ütlema, et mulle see meeldib, rahval on selge ettekujutus, et kes on kasinusvalitsuse poolt ja kes mitte.

Ambrose Evans-Pritchard is wrong, we need fiscal

Ambrose Evans-Pritchard wrote an article of why Paul Krugman is wrong. Sure, Krugman is wrong but not the way Pritchard thinks.

Ambrose Evans-Pritchard: Why Paul Krugman is wrong

IS-LM was intended for fix forex, ok it doesn’t work even there, but It is definately wrong in a floating exchange rate regime.

He writes:

Mr Congdon’s claim is a self-evident truism. Central banks can always create inflation if they try hard enough. As Milton Friedman said, they can print bundles of notes and drop from them helicopters. The modern variant might be a $100,000 electronic transfer into the bank account of every citizen. That would most assuredly create inflation.

I don’t see how Prof Krugman can refute this, though I suspect that he will deftly change the goal posts by stating that this is not monetary policy. To anticipate this counter-attack, let me state in advance that the English language does not belong to him. It is monetary policy. It is certainly not interest rate policy.

This is exactly wright, It is not monetary policy. You see, central banks are not authorized to do fiscal policy, they are not authorized to send every citizen a check. Yellen would go to jail if she did that. Central bank’s monetary operations are neutral in a sense that they don’t give private sector net financial assets. QE is an asset swap, one might say that It stimulates as far as It changes price of those assets, price of credit perhaps etc. This is why BOJ has failed to create inflation for decades despite of QE.  This is why Milton Friedman had to use helicopters in his example to get money in the hands of citizens. There is no monetary operation in central bank’s tool box that would allow to do that.

Liquidity does nothing do repair aggregate demand, does nothing to repair balance sheets. We need fiscal for that. Paul Krugman has moved quite a bit from monetarist position. He used to promote QE in  Japan.

Wage Cuts And Austerity Have Come To Belgium

scissors_cutting_euroWage Cuts And Austerity Have Come To Belgium

Workers are paying the bill while business is getting a free lunch

Today, trade unions in Belgium are organising a general national strike. This will come on top of 3 days of regional strikes as well as a national manifestation, all of which have been massively followed up by workers over the past month. Moreover, the trade union leadership is considering to continue with such actions in the new year. For Belgium, with its tradition of social dialogue, this is rather unheard of and to see similar intense trade union action one has to go 20 years back.

Belgian workers have however every reason to be upset. The conservative government, having taken up power recently, is applying an austerity programme of such depth that it reminds one of the brutal austerity policies that have been pursued in in many other European member states. Policies that have triggered the long European recession of 2011-2012. The total austerity package proposed amounts to some 11 billion euro or close to 3% of GDP.

Looking at the measures that are in the pipeline, both workers and unemployed people will face austerity from the cradle to the grave. There are cuts in childcare benefits, substantially increased childcare costs and (higher) education fees as well as swinging cuts in the educational budget and public services in general. Next year, workers will be forced to undergo a real wage cut of 2% while collective bargaining on wage increases is outlawed for the coming two years. Unemployment benefit systems are being hollowed out in many different ways and at the end of their active life, workers will have to work longer (to the age of 67) before being entitled to (reduced) pensions.

In all of these measures, the pressure is on wages while income from capital is not touched at all. On the contrary! On top of the 2% imposed cut in real wages comes a huge reduction in employer social security contributions. Business will enjoy a transfer of 4 billion euro or more than 1% of GDP.

The eternal alibi: Competitiveness, competitiveness, competitiveness…

These 4 billion are handed over to business on the basis of an old law on the competitive position of Belgium. According to this law and the annual statistics that are produced as a result of it, the competitive position of Belgium is under threat because hourly private sector wages in Belgium are rising too strongly in comparison with its three neighbouring countries (Germany, France and the Netherlands).

This, of course, puts employers in a perfect position. All they have to do is pointing to this law and its associated statistics to defend their case that there’s no room for collective bargaining on wage increases, that wages have to go down and that they urgently need another round in employer social security contributions.

It is however simplistic to reduce competitiveness to the dimension of wages. There are many other and indeed much more important factors than wages that influence competitive performance.

Belgium, it turns out, is a perfect case to illustrate how misleading such a simple wage competitiveness analysis can be. Indeed, as analysed below, a broader analysis of Belgian economic indicators shows that the competitive position of Belgium is actually very good……

tallinna lennujaamTallinn-Brussels flights grounded today due to strike

Half of the air traffic in and out of Brussels Airport have been grounded today, including four flights between Tallinn Lennart Meri Airport and the Belgian capital, the result of a one-day strike today by Belgian unions…….

How to Balance the Government Budget. The MMT way!

by Peter Martin

balance budgetHow to Balance the Government Budget. The MMT way!

………Of course, the money comes from where all money comes from in the first instance, and as Keynes said, if something can be done it can be afforded. The only danger of too much spending is too much inflation. The danger of too little spending is the recession we have now, both in the UK and, even worse, in the Eurozone.

The problem is that the electorate, and most politicians, don’t understand economics. That’s not surprising. The mainstream media don’t explain it at all correctly. To most people, the government is like a company or a household. To spend money it has first to acquire money. That’s true for a user but not at all the case with an issuer of currency.

It’s rather like living in society where everyone thinks the world is flat. If we insist the world is really round then they might not like that and vote for someone else. We, in turn,  wouldn’t like that so the best approach may be to pretend we think the world is flat too, and work our way around the problem as best we can!………

rahvakogu“Balance the budget the MMT way” oli Marek Kruusenvaldi Rahvakogus esitatud maksukrediitide idee.  Mina pean seda parimaks majanduslikuks ideeks, mida ma eesti keeles lugenud olen.  Kuigi iseenesest ei ole see mingi poliitiline plaan või isegi majanduslik programm, et mida teha tuleks või mida tegema peaks. Küll aga on see tööriistakast. Nii kaua, kui meie poliitilistel jõududel puudub see tööriistakast, tõmblevad nad Maastrichti hullusärgis. See idee nullib nende väited, kes väidavad, et me ei saa seda või toda endale finantsiliselt lubada ning asetab poliitökonoomilise diskussiooni mõnes mõttes veelgi õigemasse raamistikku, kui MMT seda teeb. Kui MMT puhul kahtlevad lugejad, et kas ikka turud ei rahasta ja kas ikka intressid taevasse ei tõuse, kas ikka raha otsa ei saa, siis maksukrediitide puhul oli kõigil kriitikutel kohe selge, et maksevõimetuse riski valitsusel neid krediite väljastades ei ole. Kohe asetus diskussioon õigesse raamistikku ning saadi aru, et võimalik negatiivne, mis sellega seonduda võib, on inflatsioon. Nutikamad said kohe aru, et tegemist on rahaga.  :)  Mina arvan, et defitsiidi hüsteeria vastu võitlemine, otseselt eurost loobumist soovitades või MMT-d kasutades, näidates, et defitsiidi terroristide jutt vale on, ei anna nii häid tulemusi ja strateegiliselt on maksukrediitide idee palju parem. See ei vastandu ka neile, paremalt ega vasakult, kes seondavad europrojekti igasuguste positiivsete sõnadega ja näevad poliitiliselt lagunevas Euroopas endiselt helget tulevikku. Lisaks sellele võimaldab see väiksema valuga eurost loobuda, kui tulevikus selline vajadus peaks olude sunnil tekkima. Samas on  idee ka piisavalt lihtne ja terminoloogiat on võimeline mõistma terve ühiskond minu arvates.

Majanduse elavdamise ning inflatsioonimõjude ja tööpuuduse vähendamise meede

Minule oleks meeldinud valitsuse tööprogramm veel seoses nende maksukrediitidega, see oleks olnud inflatsioonivastane, lisaks sellele oleks sisuline täistööhõive saavutatud, mis mõjuks sotsiaalselt positiivselt ühiskonna sidususe jne perspektiivist lähtudes. Aga võib olla oleks seda tõesti esialgu liiga palju ja strateegiliselt on parem, kui idee on võimalikult lihtne. Mulle tundub, et lihtsuse osas see kirjatükk oma eesmärgi ka täitis, lugejad said üldjoontes aru sellest, millest oli vaja aru saada, iseasi kas see väga paljude lugejateni jõudnud on.

Põhiline, et linnukese kirja saaks

checkMõni aeg tagasi postitasin siia lingi Eugen Vegese artiklile Äripäevas, nüüd leidsin tema blogist ka poliitiliselt ebakorrektse alguse tollele artiklile.

Tööjõumaksude vähendamine on otsustatud

Tööjõumaksude vähendamine on nüüdseks otsustatud. Peagi jõutakse kokkuleppele ka maksudes, mida kergitatakse, ja asi läheb käiku. Kui otsustajad näevad mingis asjas võluvitsa, siis tuleb üldsusel sellega leppida. Nii tuli leppida eurotsooniga (euroga) ja Euroopa Stabiilsusmehhanismiga liitumisega, tuleb leppida reeglitega, mida üldsusele peale surutakse. Need on samasooliste kooseluseadus, töövõimetusreform, valimisseadus, erakonnaseadus, eripensionide seadus jne.

Olen nõus, mis puudutab kooseluseadust, siis mina ei oleks ka homode abielude lubamise vastu, kui rahvas seda tahaks. Selle seadusega saadi aga linnuke kirja ja tekitati polariseerumine ühiskonnas. Ma olen nõus Gräziniga, kes ütles, et riigil oleks tulnud teha paar statandard lepingublanketti notaritele, sest juba enne sellise seaduse vastuvõtmist oli võimalik sisult sarnane leping sõlmida samasoolistel. Muidugi linnuke on vägev ja lausa rahvusvaheline, me oleme progressiivsed ikkagi! Mul viskas täiega üle see palagan.  Nüüd hakkame suure kära saatel tööjõumakse alandama, samas tõstame kohe mingisuguseid teisi makse, tolku sellest tõenäoliselt ei ole, aga linnukese saame jälle kirja (kui ma eksin ja samasoolised said mingid olulised õigused seoses selle seadusega, mida neil enne ei olnud, siis palun tule ja valgusta mind).

Ma vist kordan ennast, aga ma ei näe meil ühtegi poliitilist jõudu, kellega saaks neid asju, ja mitte ainult neid, sisuliselt arutada. Kõlavad loosungid nagu struktuurne eelarve tasakaal (see mõiste hirmutab juba kõik võhikud kaugemale eelarvedebattidest), sallivus ja tolerantsus jne.

Ten questions on Greece & SYRIZA, with ten answers – Q&A with Jorge N. Rodrigues

Yanis Varoufakise blogist

Ten questions on Greece & SYRIZA, with ten answers – Q&A with Jorge N. Rodrigues

  1. Why Prime Minister Antonis Samaras called, in a surprising move, early presidential elections for December 17?

It is my view that Mr Samaras has been betrayed by Berlin and Frankfurt. He has been promising Greek voters a “clean exit from the bailouts” by the end of December. I refuse to believe that he made this up – and I trust he only made that promise because he was promised such a “clean exit”. In this context, his strategy was to wait until February, when the “clean exit” would be announced with considerable fanfare, and then call an election putting voters in front of a dilemma: A vote for me is a vote for an immediate exit from the bailout nightmare. A vote for SYRIZA is a vote for conflict with the EU that will result in Grexit and chaos. Me or the deluge.

Alas, Berlin’s promise to allow him to claim that he bailout had been exited cleanly was withdrawn a couple of weeks ago. Mr Samaras felt betrayed and his own media and MPs turned against him. He had a stark choice: Wait this thing out, with daily loss of control over his own government, until a Presidential election in Parliament in February, which he would lose thus being forced into an unwinnable election? Or go for it now, in a last ditch attempt to terrorise voters into voting for him rather than for SYRIZA? He opted for the latter.

  1. Did Samaras have other options, or he is completely sandwiched between troika and Opposition and this move was desperate?

His move was desperate because he never considered his one alternative option – the one that resonates with the truth about Greece’s economy and with regard to the Eurozone crisis: the option of telling Germany and Brussels that enough is enough. That the grand lie must end that Greece is on the way to recovery and will escape its bankruptcy if only a few more reforms and a little more austerity are applied.

Bossid Euroopast Kreekale: ärge valige valesti

Don’t Vote ‘Wrong’ Way, Europe Chief Tells Greece

The European Union’s most powerful official warned Greeks to avoid the “wrong election result” by not voting for a left-wing coalition party into government.

Jean-Claude Juncker, the president of the European Commission, told Austrian broadcaster ORF that while he did not wish to impose his views on Greek politics, the radical Syriza party would bring about economic disaster….

Hirmutamistaktika jätkub, tegelikult on kärped ja abipaketi tingimustega nõustumine kaasa toonud majanduskatastroofi Kreekas ja lõppu pole sellele näha.

Bloomberg View

 EU Can’t Tell Greeks How to Vote

……Sorry, but there’s no such thing as a “wrong” election result in a modern democracy. If the Greek people choose to elect Tsipras, they’ll be backing his plan to renegotiate Greece’s debt burden by stiffing its creditors, and to ease back on economic austerity. And that’s their prerogative, regardless of whether Juncker likes the idea or not, and regardless of whether Juncker regards Tsipras as an “extreme” force…….

Postimees

Kreeka peaminister hoiatas «katastroofi» eest

Kreeka parlamendiliikmetel seisab ees pingeline nädalavahetus: neil tuleb otsustada, kas toetada peaministri poolt üles seatud presidendikandidaati või riskida üldvalimistega, mis võivad tuua võimule vasakradikaalse partei Syriza.

Peaminister Antonis Samaras karmistas sõnakasutust, hoiatades oma paremtsentristlikku Uue Demokraatia erakonda, et Kreeka riskib «katastroofilise» euroalast väljumisega, kui parlament ei vali riigipeaks endist Euroopa keskkonnavolinikku Stavros Dimast.

«Me valasime verd, et eemaldada välismaalaste huultelt sõna «Grexit» [Geek exit ehk kreeka väljumine – toim], ja nüüd on Syriza toomas seda tagasi,» vahendab Financial Times Samarase hoiatust.

Syriza, mis hoiab arvamusküsitlustes stabiilset 5-protsendilist edumaad, põlgas peaministri väited ära kui «[inimeste] hirmutamiseks mõeldud ilukõne … On naeruväärne mõelda, et see ülessoojendatud jutt euroalast väljumisest võiks ehmatada ühiskonda, mida juba lämmatab karm kasinus.»

Ägenev sõnasõda on eelmaitse valimisvõitlusest, mis vallandub kolmapäeval, on juba ette toonud kaasa kõige järsema kukkumise Ateena börsil alates 1980ndatest aastatest ning süüdanud taas hirmud euroala pärast laiemalt.

Arvatavasti läheb presidendi valimine parlamendis välja kuni 29. detsembril toimuva kolmanda ja lõpliku vooruni. Selleks ajaks tuleb Samarasel leida lisaks 25 poolthääletajat, kes praegu vajaka on.

Aeg on euro magama panna

Väga hea lugemine, Ha-Joon Chang’ist olen ma ka varem kirjutanud siin blogis.

By Michael Nevradakis, Truthout | Interview

What They Haven’t Told Us About the European Financial Crisis

………..Do you believe that the euro, as a currency, and the common market were structurally flawed from the start?

Well, I’m afraid it was. The most obvious analogy with the European currency union is the United States. The US is another continental-sized economy with very diverse conditions. Parts of California and Massachusetts are among the richest places in the world; if you go to a place like Mississippi, you could be in a third-world country. Despite that, the US hasn’t experienced a problem like the European Union has when something goes wrong in some part of the economy, and plenty of things have gone bad in different parts of the US economy over the last 200 years, but it hasn’t had the kind of problem that the European Union has with Greece, Italy and Portugal because there’s a very high degree of fiscal integration.

“If you want a currency union, you need at least the US level of integration through labor market policy and fiscal integration and so on, and unfortunately, the euro was launched when these conditions were not there.”

So in the EU, if income falls by one euro in one of the countries for whatever reason, roughly five cents go back to that region through EU-level transfers. In the case of the United States, something like 50 percent goes back if income falls in one of the states through the Federal transfer system, so there’s a high degree of fiscal integration. Also, you cannot really compare the extent of labor mobility in the two economies, because, okay, in Europe you also have this freedom of labor movement, but the truth is that because of the language barrier and cultural barrier and differences in the structure of the housing markets and so on, actual mobility is very limited, whereas in America, lots of people move. For example, in the 1980s when all the heavy industries went into decline in the Midwestern states, a lot of people moved to the Southwest, like Arizona and New Mexico, and also California.

The point that I’m trying to make is, if you want a currency union, you need at least the US level of integration through labor market policy and fiscal integration and so on, and unfortunately, the euro was launched when these conditions were not there. So yes, I’m afraid that it might have worked had they introduced the common currency among the core five to six countries with similar levels of income and low language barriers and so on. Unfortunately this project was pushed when conditions were not ready due to political reasons, and we are living through the consequences of this ill-judged decision to launch the common currency then.

Would a departure from the eurozone and a return to a national, independent currency be a viable option for Greece, and how could Greece accomplish this and rebuild its economy under such circumstances?

Whether Greece should stay in the eurozone or not is a matter of relative cost and benefit. There’s no God-given reason why it should or shouldn’t. But yes, my view is if the European Union is going to maintain the current policy stance, it is better for Greece to exit the common currency and devalue its own currency and reflate the economy. Of course, the biggest trouble is that in the decade or so of currency union, a lot of Greek industries have been destroyed; so basically you have much weaker productive capacity to rebuild the economy even after you devalue, so it will be a tough struggle.

But when you look at examples like Argentina, which basically had a unilateral currency union with the US dollar in the 1990s, and when that didn’t work out it delinked its currency with the US dollar and defaulted on many of its loans, it became the fastest-growing economy in Latin America between 2003 and 2011. When you look at a case like that, you begin to think that maybe Greece will be better off outside the eurozone. My view is that frankly, unless you are really ready to leave the euro, the rest of the eurozone countries, especially Germany and so on, they are not going to give you many concessions, so I think it is also strategically better if you think about a future outside the eurozone in a more serious way…….

How did you first come to MMT, everyone?

How did you first come to MMT, everyone?

I’ll start: I heard Wray interviewed on a Marxish podcast called “From Alpha to Omega.” It unmoored me in the best possible way and I’ve been hooked ever since.

Like ·
  • 5 people like this.
  • Ankur Patel Was a Marxist – Leninist until junior year of high school when I began reading about Keynesian economics and catholic social teaching. Found my way to MMT after reading about different Keynesian schools.
    20 hrs · Like · 3
  • Peter Gogol Dr. Kelton spoke at my old church one Sunday a few years ago. I had been reading Paul Krugman’s columns and blogs for years before that and the term Kansas City School economics would bubble up from time to time in the comments, but that talk was the first time MMT was really laid out for me.A key step to improving our collective lot is to get the financial community and political leaders to understand MMT. However, they’ll continue to be gun-shy to actually legislate and budget based upon MMT until more of the public is vaccinated against federal debt hysteria which has been pervasive for the last few decades. One way to help with that might be widespread standardized talks. The effort could be modeled on Al Gore’s climate change lecture. This time around, for MMT it could be titled “A Convenient Truth.”

    16 hrs · Like · 3
  • Kar Nels Reading that the Fed bought treasuries and paid us interest and it occurred to my simple brain – why not have Fed buy all the debt? Reading that banks got near zero percent loans for Fed printed money and also bought treasuries and we had to pay bank interest really infuriated me.
    16 hrs · Like · 1
  • Timothy J Leahy I saw Warren Mosler’s name mentioned in a comment on a Huffington Post article, and only saying it was a ‘paradigm shift’, but no link provided. I Googled him and skeptically began reading 7DIF (which was brand new!). Pretty early on in the book I realized it made more sense than what I previously thought. Was addicted for a while, reading everything and everyone I could find on the subject. I figured the policy proposals were basically no-brainers, that is until I came up against the resistance, the Borg. That was disheartening, and that’s been the last few years with very few exceptions.
    16 hrs · Edited · Like · 5
  • Kyle Preece Mike Norman interview by Lauren Lyster at Capital Account (Russia Today).
    13 hrs · Like · 1
  • Jan Zemánek Marshall Auerbeck at the former New Deal 2.0 blog back in 2009
    http://www.nextnewdeal.net/marshall-auerback
    Fiscal Sustainability Teach-In and Counter-Conference in 2010
    http://www.netrootsmass.net/fiscal-sustainability-teach…/

    7 hrs · Edited · Like · 2
  • Robert Kelly Scott FergusonThat Alpha to Omega episode with Randy Wray was excellent by the way. That’s when it finally hit me about why so much “risk free” financial assets were required to collateralize all the derivative deals that ended up causing the 2008 GFC.
    8 hrs · Like · 1
  • Robert Kelly I met Warren thru a friend back in the 90’s. So I got to read 7DIF when it first came out. Then I tried Soft Currency Economics, which I had to re-read about 5 times. I have to admit it took quite a while to sink in.
    8 hrs · Like · 2
  • Rodney Rondeau I was searching articles to learn about inflation and I came across Bill Mitchells website. It just made sense.
    7 hrs · Like · 1
  • Lachlan Riley When I was at university I was tasked with writing a paper about the financial crisis and macroeconomic means of addressing it. I stumbled upon ‘The Full Employment Imperative’ in doing so.I did not properly understand MMT properly until later, after seeing Keen’s reasoning about private debt and endogenous money somehow lead to MMT people showing me.

    7 hrs · Like · 1
  • Jason Bessey I’ve been scratching my head over the nature of money for a few years now. I could never really wrap my head around a satisfactory way of conceptualizing it.Then, starting a few months ago, I had been reading a few mentions here and there on Facebook about something called, “Modern Monetary Theory”. One day, I decided to look it up.

    I ended up on some website called, “firedoglake.com“.

    And two things jumped out at me:

    (1). The government issues its own currency. Thus, it can’t run out. So why taxes? To create a demand for it because it’s intrinsically worthless.

    I was like, “Duh. Why didn’t I think of that?!?!”

    (2) He took two GDP equations and derived this thing called, “The Sectoral Balances Equation”. Three sectors, Public, Private, and Foreign. All (logically) mutually exclusive and jointly exhaustive. A deficit in one sector is a surplus in another.

    The logic was inescapable. It was necessarily true. No way around it.

    Up until that point, I thought Geogism was one of the coolest ideas I had ever read. MMT — at that moment — almost instantly hit that same level of coolness in my mind. (And coming from me, that’s high praise.) It just clicked!

    And then I realized what tax should drive should drive that currency. In my mind, MMT complemented Georgism in a wonderfully simple and elegant manner. It was like the micro and macro, supply side and demand side just together for me like pieces of a puzzle.

    Not long after that, I even started a Facebook group I called, “Geo-Chartalism” to explore the possibility of synthesis between the two schools of thought.

    6 hrs · Like · 1
  • Chris Hanley I became friends with Warren Mosler. After about 30 lunches dinners and boat trips, it finally sunk in.
    5 hrs · Edited · Like · 1
  • Scott Ferguson Maybe that’s the key to the MMT revolution in the United States: Warren Mosler has to take each and every one of us on a tropical sea cruise. Sure beats storming the Bastille.
    4 hrs · Edited · Like · 7
  • Vernon Etzel of all things, I was into Bill Still at the time, did a youtube video, and got a contact from Sweden who asked me to look into Mosler and MMT. Saw a Kelton/Mosler academic video and it completely changed my perspective.
    5 hrs · Like · 2
  • Joe Crisi I never understood how cutting debt led to anything good. I kept asking the conservatives and received the standard answers of “It frees up the private sector”. Someone, I don’t who, sent me a link on the MMT. That was a quite a while ago. I was very skeptical at first.
    4 hrs · Like · 2
  • Chris Hanley Joe Crisi, MMT is just as confusing to liberals as it is to conservatives in my experience.
    4 hrs · Like · 3
  • Scott Ferguson For one thing, MMT destroys the liberal’s sense of self-righteous on issues of taxation. At a deeply emotional level, it’s difficult for folks to give up the pride they feel in donating “their” money to help the less fortunate, not to mention the moral superiority they also feel in relation to those “greedy” and “selfish” right-wingers who want to keep all their income for themselves.
    4 hrs · Edited · Like · 3
  • Bryan Walsh Steve Keen write-up about the wrongness of Krugman, to the part of his book talking about Post-Keynesian econ, to Michael Hudson, and his UMKC crew. Tried reading MMT primer, but had to put it down and learn a bit more econ/finance vocab, but stumbled on Mosler’s “7DIF”, and it sank in. That book has changed everything.
    3 hrs · Like · 2
  • Bryan Walsh So many lay-discussions of economic “schools”, sound eerily similar to discussions by martial artists debating styles. What I’ve grasped of MMT so far reminds me of discovering Bruce Lee’s philosophy for the first time. Lifting the veil of b.s.. It was overt partisanship that made me look for counters to Krugman, and I’m grateful I did. I am still a massive Dean Baker fan, though.
  • Stavros Karageorgis I’ve actually forgotten, but I think it was indirectly, through John Harvey and Steve Keen. It helped that I was already ‘converted’ to endogenous money in the late 1980s. But it hadn’t really sunk in. I am ashamed to say that I did not GET the importance of the euro, the Eurozone, the implications . . . I remained as mired in the mainstream, in one very important sense, as my mentor (B.J. Moore) was. I underestimated the continuing importance of fiat money in the contemporary world. The final ‘nail-in-the-coffin’ was Scott Fullwiler’s and Bell/Kelton’s presentation of the actual, full, operational details in a formal format (Warren Mosler had obviously already prepared me for that). Then the anthropoligists’ and economic historians’ accounts of money. Suddenly, my entire previous education made sense in a different light. It was a true ‘paradigm-shift’, or an ‘alternation’ (to put it with Berger and Luckmann)
    2 hrs · Like · 2
  • David Glotzer I’m still an undergraduate, I was always interested in financial crisis because this conundrum of ours started when I was still in high school, but was not getting much out of the mainstream view, got put off by the lack of explanatory power in orthodox theory by people who I otherwise admire such as joe stiglitz and went on to study other things. I was studying physics a the time before making the switch to math and Econ and I came across a an interview with Dr. Galbraith at umkc talking about the sociology of Economics. This peeked my interest and videos on MMT were easy to find from there. My economics education has been extracurricular ever since.
    2 hrs · Like · 2
  • John O’Connell From a discussion at SeekingAlpha
    59 mins · Like · 2
    See Randall Wray Alpha to Omega intervjuu on siin

Siim Veskimees: elu võimalikkusest Euroopa tagahoovis

Siim Veskimees: elu võimalikkusest Euroopa tagahoovis

……..Sama kehtib peaaegu igal alal – tuleb võtta uued, isegi pisut pöörased ideed ja neist midagi teha. Meil on inimesi, kes sellega tegeleda tahavad ja ka hakkama saavad. Meil on vaja valitsust, kes tagab, et siin oleks nüüd ja tulevikus turvaline olla. Meie oma valitsust – aktiivsete, teadlike ja poliitikast huvitatud tegusate inimeste esindust…..

Siim Veskimees kirjutab, et demokraatiast parimat valitsemisviisi polevat. Minu arvates on demokraatia halvim valitsemisviis, välja arvatud need kõik ülejäänud. Igal juhul mina demokraatiasse ei usu, see küll töötab tagasiside mehhanismina mingil määral, aga ka siin mitte alati, kui vaadata Reformierakonna võimul püsimist läbi aegade. Massiline tööpuudus ja väljaränne, aga rahvas usub, et selline valitsemine on edukas, veelgi enam, Krugman ollakse valmis tükkideks kiskuma, kui see ütleb, et kasinus pole edu toonud Eesti majandusele.  Soome tööle sõitvad inimesed kiidavad laeva peal Eesti majandust, et meil pole võlgu võetud. Kuidas see demokraatia töötada saab, kui keskmine valija endale jalga tulistab pidevalt? Ei ole meie selles suhtes erandid, kuskil pole sellist kodanikuühiskonda, kus inimesed aktiivselt poliitikas toimuvat jälgivad ja oskavad enda jaoks kasulikult otsustada. Ma tuletan meelde, kuidas EL-i astumisel oli üheks põhiliseks argumendiks massidele välismaal töötamine, isegi rahvusliku demokraatia on valmis paljud loovutama, kui see peaks meid nende arvates rikkamaks tegema.

15 & 16 May: EU crisis policies put on trial

Corporate Europe Observatory

15 & 16 May: EU crisis policies put on trial

Location:
Rue Pletinckx 19, Brussels
Date:
Thursday, May 15, 2014 – 14:00 to Friday, May 16, 2014 – 17:00

After six years of crisis and four years of new EU economic governance measures and Troika policies, it is high time to assess their devastating results. Transnational Institute (TNI), Corporate Europe Observatory (CEO) and Transform!, with the support of several European networks and organisations1, are organising a People’s Tribunal on EU Economic Governance and the Troika on 15 and 16 May in Brussels.

The Tribunal aims to analyse and expose the EU policy measures taken in response to the crisis, by presenting the social consequences of these measures in countries all over Europe.

The Tribunal will bring together a dozen witnesses from different European countries. In their testimonies, they will set out the social consequences of the EU’s crisis policies related to an issue specific to their own country……..

Europe’s Misguided Investment Mania

PROJECT SYNDICATE

Daniel Gros

Europe’s Misguided Investment Mania

……..Economic performance in the United States and the United Kingdom holds an important lesson for the eurozone. Both economies’ recoveries have been driven largely by a pickup in consumption on the back of stronger household balance sheets, especially in the US. The revival of investment has followed the resumption of consumption growth. If European policymakers are serious about economic recovery, they should focus on consumption, not investment.

MMT-raha maksude maksmiseks saab tulla vaid valitsuselt

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