Isegi Brüssel hakkab Merkeli poliitikale vastu

 Brussels pleads with Germany to let wages rise

(AFP) Germany must increase workers’ salaries to help its neighbours out of the economic slump, the European Union’s employment commissioner Laszlo Andor said Saturday.

The Hungarian said Berlin’s big foreign trade surplus was hurting its European partners, and urged it to stimulate domestic demand by increasing wages and public expenditure.

“The rise in salaries has fallen behind the rise in productivity in Germany” for more than a decade, Andor told the German conservative daily Die Welt, in an interview due to be published on Sunday.

Brussels was now urging Germany, the EU’s economic powerhouse, to relax its iron grip on wages, which he said was “indispensible” for the recovery of the rest of the region.

“It would be better if salaries rise in parallel with productivity,” Andor added.

His comments come amid signs of stalling growth in the 18-member eurozone, particularly its largest economies Germany and France, as the bloc struggles to recover from years of financial crisis.

Brussels now appears to be taking a view long championed by France that a rise in German salaries would give the struggling eurozone a much-needed stimulus.

France’s President Francois Hollande this month called on Berlin to boost spending as “the best favour Germany could do for France and for Europe” to help growth.

“It’s very important that Germany increases public spending, stimulates demand and reduces its excessive trade surplus, which is hurting its European neighbours,” Andor said.

“Changing wage policy is indispensible, the Commission believes,” he told the paper.

Bundesbank chief Jens Weidmann last month said German wages have scope to rise as much as 3 percent because “we are practically in a situation of full employment”.

This runs counter to many on the German right, including Chancellor Angela Merkel, who believe its low wage policy has given the country its competitive edge.

Pay remains a prickly issue in Germany, which has just approved its first national minimum wage to come into effect in January 2015, despite stiff opposition from employers.

Mis sellest saab, on muidugi teine asi. Siiani on sellised üleskutsed olnud hüüdja hääled kõrbes madalalaubalise parempoolsuse vastu.

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Helsinki’s ambitious plan to make car ownership pointless in 10 years

Helsinki’s ambitious plan to make car ownership pointless in 10 years

The Finnish capital has announced plans to transform its existing public transport network into a comprehensive, point-to-point “mobility on demand” system by 2025 – one that, in theory, would be so good nobody would have any reason to own a car.

Helsinki aims to transcend conventional public transport by allowing people to purchase mobility in real time, straight from their smartphones. The hope is to furnish riders with an array of options so cheap, flexible and well-coordinated that it becomes competitive with private car ownership not merely on cost, but on convenience and ease of use.

Subscribers would specify an origin and a destination, and perhaps a few preferences. The app would then function as both journey planner and universal payment platform, knitting everything from driverless cars and nimble little buses to shared bikes and ferries into a single, supple mesh of mobility. Imagine the popular transit planner Citymapper fused to a cycle hire service and a taxi app such as Hailo or Uber, with only one payment required, and the whole thing run as a public utility, and you begin to understand the scale of ambition here.

That the city is serious about making good on these intentions is bolstered by the Helsinki Regional Transport Authority’s rollout last year of a strikingly innovative minibus service called Kutsuplus. Kutsuplus lets riders specify their own desired pick-up points and destinations via smartphone; these requests are aggregated, and the app calculates an optimal route that most closely satisfies all of them……….

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Why Iceland Should Be In The News, But Is Not

Why Iceland Should Be In The News, But Is Not

An Italian radio program’s story about Iceland’s on-going revolution is a stunning example of how little our media tells us about the rest of the world. Americans may remember that at the start of the 2008 financial crisis, Iceland literally went bankrupt.  The reasons were mentioned only in passing, and since then, this little-known member of the European Union fell back into oblivion……

…..Contrary to what could be expected, the crisis resulted in Icelanders recovering their sovereign rights, through a process of direct participatory democracy that eventually led to a new Constitution.  But only after much pain…..

…What happened next was extraordinary. The belief that citizens had to pay for the mistakes of a financial monopoly, that an entire nation must be taxed to pay off private debts was shattered, transforming the relationship between citizens and their political institutions and eventually driving Iceland’s leaders to the side of their constituents. The Head of State, Olafur Ragnar Grimsson, refused to ratify the law that would have made Iceland’s citizens responsible for its bankers’ debts, and accepted calls for a referendum…

…..They should look to Iceland. Refusing to bow to foreign interests, that small country stated loud and clear that the people are sovereign.

That’s why it is not in the news anymore.

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How Money is Made

How Money is Made

…..In order to stimulate productive bank credit – and boost the effectiveness of fiscal policy – governments should stop issuing bonds, and instead borrow from banks through loan contracts, often available at lower rates than bond yields. This would bolster bank credit and stimulate demand, employment, GDP, and tax revenues……
Minu teada on see õnneks keelatud praegu EMU-s. See veel puuduks, et kommertspangad hakkavad valitsustele laenama ja valitsused peavad tänulikud olema pankadele siis. Werner on circutist tugeva neoliberaalse kaldega.
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Real Fiscal Responsibility: Spending providing real resources to real people with real needs!

Real Fiscal Responsibility: Spending providing real resources to real people with real needs!

This project is for everyone tired of hearing economic commentary from those who got everything wrong. For decades the the doctrine of “Fiscal Responsibility” interpreted as long-term deficit reduction and Government austerity  has had a secure place in American politics. The three of us proposing this project believe that this doctrine is the economic equivalent of the medieval notion that patients must be bled to cure them of disease.

“We seek funding for a pilot project for a new radio/video series that will present, and advocate for this paradigm change. The project will create six shows that we will then use to get the series picked up by an existing cable network. Our proposed Radio/Video program is about presenting the paradigm of RealFiscal Responsibility to the general public. It will explain all facets of the new paradigm through interviews and discussions with the main thinkers in Modern Money Theory and other post-Keynesian approaches who have developed aspects of the new approach. Our goal for this pilot project is to raise $30,000 to create the six programs. Please help us to meet this goal. If we can do it and then get the program picked up, our voice may be the decisive one in defeating the austerians and their policies, and in opening the  way to create the America of economic opportunity and social justice we all long for.”

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PM Ponta: We must tell Europe that austerity did not bring any good

PM Ponta: We must tell Europe that austerity did not bring any good

Prime Minister Victor Ponta has stated on Monday, at the opening of the Diaspora Estival event in Eforie Nord (southeastern Romania), that Romania’s economic direction depends on the evolutions of the EU economy, and on a European level it must be said that austerity measures ultimately mean losing the economic war……

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Arumäe: SKP number külvab segadust

Arumäe: SKP number külvab segadust

Täna avaldatud statistikaameti info teise kvartali majanduskasvu kohta on külvanud palju segadust, sest kasvuprotsent pole võrreldav esimese kvartaliga ning SEB analüütiku Ruta Arumäe sõnul ei tea me täna sedagi, kuhu poole ja kui palju hinnang nihkes on.

“Statistikaameti poolt avaldatud andmed on vastukäivad ning segadusttekitavad. Täna me sisuliselt ei tea, kuhu poole ning kui palju hinnangud nihkes on. On üsna oluline erinevus selle vahel, kas majandus kasvab või kahaneb, ning tänaste andmete põhjal pole võimalik veendunult sedagi öelda,” sõnas Arumäe.

“Oleks tegemist lihtsalt küsimusega, et kas majanduskasv oli 2 või 3%, siis polekski vast suurt vahet, kuid kui pole võimalik öelda, kas see kahaneb või kasvab, on juba vahe küll,” lisas ta……..

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Toidutööstused: Eesti toidusektori jätkusuutlikkus on tarbijate kätes

Toidutööstused: Eesti toidusektori jätkusuutlikkus on tarbijate kätes

Eesti Toiduliidu liikmed kutsuvad viimase nädala jooksul kujunenud olukorra valguses tarbijaid üles ostma kauplustest eestimaist toidukaupa. Toiduliidu juhataja Sirje Potiseppa sõnul tagab just see toidutööstustele ja tooraine tootjatele kindluse, et toidusektor pääseb halvimast…..

Kutsutakse üles tarbimiseelistusi muutma, sest sanktsioonid Venemaa vastu kehtestati küll solidaarselt EL-s, kuid tagajärgede eest solidaarselt ei vastutata. Kõige väiksemad ja viletsamad peaksid nüüd patriotismist eelistama eestimaist, samal ajal valavad poliitikud ja suurtöösturid krokodillipisaraid, et saage ometi aru ja kannatage. Mina ei ole kuulnud ühtegi ettepanekut meie poliitiliselt eliidilt, et EL võiks kompenseerida sanktsioonide mõju neile liikmesriikidele, mida sanktsioonid rohkem haavavad. Üldse ei imestaks, kui sanktsioonide tagajärjel tekkinud tööpuuduse leevendamiseks hakatakse struktuurseid reforme nõudma liikmesriikide valitsustelt ja töötud arvatakse kõlbmatute hulka, sest neil puuduvad vajalikud oskused. 2008-a aasta šoki järel selline olukord tekkis, kus oli selliseid, kes pidasid inimeste välismaale tööle sõitmist isegi positiivseks.

Tulge trennist koju ja võtke roosad prillid eest ära

Eesti vajab hädasti plaani, mille abiga võtta vastu sanktsioonidest- piirangutest põhjustatud hoop, leiab Äripäev juhtkirjas.

Eesti valitsuse soovi pisendada Euroopa Liidu Vene-sanktsioonide ja Venemaa impordipiirangute mõju Eesti majandusele ajendab ilmselt soov vältida paanikat, mis on ju inimlikus plaanis ehk arusaadavgi. Kuid aitab nüüd küll pea liiva alla peitmisest. Viimane aeg on paika panna ja avalikustada konkreetsed tegutsemis- ja kärpekavad, mille juurde käivad ka sisulised selgitused. Muidu jääb avalikkusele kergesti mulje, et valitsuses on maad võtnud täielik peataolek, mida püütakse varjutada sisutu ja õõnsa jutuga – sedagi aetakse juhul, kui kommentaaride jagamisest lihtsalt hoiduda ei õnnestu.

Soome peaministri Alexander Stubbi ja Eesti peaministri Taavi Rõivase reaktsioone võrreldes jääb mulje, et neid kahte riiki lahutab Atlandi ookean, mitte pisikene Soome laht. Stubb ei külva paanikat, aga ei mängi ka peitust. Ta saadab pärast ELi Vene-sanktsioonide avalikustamist signaali, et asi on tõsine, ning käib välja ka rahalise mõõtme: kahju mõõdetakse miljardites. Selle aja peale tuleb Rõivalt ja mujalt valitsusest vaid rahustavat sooja auru: mõjud on nii väikesed, et pole mõtet rääkidagi.

Pärast Venemaa impordikeeldude sisu avalikustamist toimus küll muudatus: Rõivas avaldas lootust, et Eesti ettevõtjatel on ikka kriisiplaanid olemas.

Ettevõtetel peavad kriisiplaanid olema, tarbija peaks tarbimiseelistusi muutma, aga tegelastel Toompeal läheb hästi.

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Natsid said võimule tänu tolleaegsele kasinuspoliitikale Saksamaal

Natsid said võimule tänu tolleaegsele kasinuspoliitikale Saksamaal.  Seega pole midagi imestada, kui me vaatame äärmuslike poliitiliste jõudude populaarsuse kasvu tänases Euroopas.

by Lord Keynes

Liquidationism and early 1930s Germany: Not a Good Mix!

…..It was deflationary depression, not hyperinflation, that destroyed democracy in Germany…….

…..By 1928, during the economic boom in Germany, the Nazi party vote looked like it was almost dead and was only 2.6%. Remarkably, even in the aftermath of the Weimar hyperinflation in 1924 it was only 3%.

When the deflationary depression struck Germany from 1929–1932, it soared to 18.3% (September 1930), then 37.3% (July 1932), and finally to 43.9% in March 1933 in the aftermath of the Great Depression.

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Kristjan Jansen

…..Kokku trükiti 1600 PAId neljas nominaalis: 1 P.A.I. x 600, 3 P.A.I. x 400, 5 P.A.I. x 400, 10 P.A.I. x 200. Raha trükkimist toetas KÜSK läbi Järvamaa Vabatahtlike Keskuse tugiprojekti (Järvamaa Vabatahtlike Keskuse võimekuse suurendamine 2011: 1). Muutus ka P.A.I. nominaalväärtus: 3 EUR asemel oli uue P.A.I. väärtus 1 EUR…..

……Kohalike ettevõtjate kaasamine P.A.I.-ringlusse on seni läinud vaevaliselt: pikaajaliselt potentsiaalseks partneriks olnud Paide Pizza loobus koostööst ning teisi suuremaid partnereid pole õnnestunud leida. Põhjuseks on sarnaselt Urvastele ja Luigele ettevõtetega koostööle pühendunud kogukonnaaktivisti puudumine. Teiseks probleemiks on ettevõtete madal usaldus alternatiivraha vastu: ettevõtted nõustuvad P.A.I.d aktsepteerima vaid juhul, kui kohalik omavalitsus seda aktsepteerib, kohalik omavalitsus aga ootab Rahandusministeeriumist ja Maksu- ja Tolliametilt juhendeid, kuidas alternatiivraha raamatupidamises kajastada……..

Praktikas leiab kinnitust, et kui valitsus aktsepteerib seda raha maksude maksmiseks, siis aktsepteerivad ka ettevõtted seda raha.


Järgnev on huvitav:

KÜSKi-poolne projekti kontaktisik Agu Laius soovis teada, kas kohaliku raha trükkimine on Eestis legaalne, seepeale võttis raha algatusmeeskond ühendust Eesti Pangaga, kust sai 15.
detsembril 2009 järgneva vastuse: Eesti Vabariigis on seaduslikuks maksevahendiks Eesti kroon, kuid vastavalt lepinguvabaduse põhimõttele võib poolte kokkuleppel kasutada ka muid vääringuid. Samas ei tohi keelduda seadusliku maksevahendi ehk Eesti krooni vastuvõtmisest. Eesti Panga jaoks on oluline just see, et Eesti krooniga saaks kaupade ja teenuste eest tasuda kõikjal Eesti Vabariigi territooriumil. Selle
tagamiseks on seaduses sätestatud ka sanktsioon: seadusliku maksevahendi vastuvõtmisest keeldumisel võidakse vastavat isikut karistada rahatrahviga…..

Mina olen alati väitnud, et krediiti on loodud tuhandeid aastaid ja seadused seda keelata ei saa: kahel osapoolel ei saa keelata midagi kokku leppimast.

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Prantsusmaa rahandusminister

By Ambrose Evans-Pritchard

France rebels against austerity as Europe’s recovery collapses

France’s finance minister sends tremors through European capitals with a defiant warning that his country would no longer try to meet deficit targets

Eurozone strategy is in tatters after economic recovery ground to a halt across the region and France demanded a radical shift in policy, warning that austerity overkill is driving Europe into a depression.

Growth slumped to zero in the second quarter, with Germany contracting by 0.2pc and France once again stuck at zero. Italy is already in a triple-dip recession.

Yields on 10-year German Bunds fell below 1pc for the first time in history, beneath levels seen during the most extreme episodes of deflation in the 19th century. French yields also touch record lows. Much of the eurozone is replicating the pattern seen in Japan as it slid into a deflation trap in the late 1990s.

It is unclear whether tumbling yields are primarily a warning signal of stagnation ahead or a bet by investors that the European Central Bank will soon be forced to launch quantitative easing, buying government bonds across the board.

Michel Sapin, France’s finance minister, sent tremors through European capitals with a defiant warning that his country would no longer try to meet its deficit targets and would not inflict further damage on its economy by tightening into the downturn. “I refuse to raise taxes to close any budget gaps,” he said……

Eestile oleks sellist rahandusministrit vaja.

Mr De Grauwe said EMU elites have misdiagnosed the cause of Europe’s intractable slump, blaming it on lack of reform when it is in reality a “demand crisis” made worse by a debt purge since the financial crisis. “They are doing everything they can to stop recovery taking off, so they should not be surprised if there is, in fact, no take-off,” he said.

“It is balanced-budget fundamentalism and it has become religious. We know from the 1930s that if everybody is trying to pay off debt and the government then deleverages at the same time, the result is a downward spiral. The rigidities in the European economy have absolutely nothing to do with the problem we face today.”



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Aaron Swartz oli MMT-lane

hat tip to Warren Mosler

need olid tema viimased tweetid enne surma

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Itaalia, Renzi ja euro

h/t to Oudekki Loone

Italy’s Renzi must bring back the lira to end depression

It is an incontrovertible fact that Italy’s 14-year disaster coincides with EMU membership

Italy has been in depression for almost six years. The slump has been punctuated by false dawns, overwhelmed each time by the monetary amateurs in charge of EMU policy.

The latest recovery fizzled after a single quarter. The economy is in technical recession again. Output has collapsed by 9.1pc from the peak, back to levels last seen 14 years ago. Industrial production is down to 1980 levels.

It takes spectacular policy errors to bring about such an outcome in a modern economy. Italy did not suffer anything like this during the Great Depression, clocking up growth of 16pc between 1929 and 1939. But not even Mussolini was maniacal enough to pursue his Gold Standard delusions until the bitter end.

The Italian authorities discern flickers of recovery, like fortress guards in Dino Buzzati’s Desert of the Tartars, deceived by optical illusions on the lifeless horizon. Bank loans to business are still falling at a rate of 4.5pc. Moody’s says the economy will contract by 0.1pc this year. Societe Generale is pencilling in -0.2pc.

The property slump has not yet touched bottom. The Bank of Italy said the number of months needed to sell a house has risen to 9.4, from 8.8 late last year. The number reporting worsening market conditions has jumped from 19.6pc to 34.7pc in three months…….

Huvitav endiselt jälgida seda komejanti. Nüüd võtab Itaalia tarvitusele innovaatilised SKP arvutamise meetodid, kus SKP sisse arvestatakse ka illegaalne majandustegevus. EL lubab seda ja utsitab Itaaliat isegi takka seda tegema Bloombergi sõnul. Seda ikka selleks, et Itaalia majandust suuremana näidata, et võla suhe SKP-sse ilusam välja näeks. See tragikomöödia on võrreldav minu meelest juba NSVL-u aegse propagandaga. Kuidas nad teavad selle illegaalse majandustegevuse suurust? No eks see ole hinnang, et valitsuse arvates müüakse 100 miljoni euro eest kokaiini igal aastal Itaalias ja makstakse prostituutidele seksuaalteenuste osutamise eest miljard eurot.


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Stanley Fisher (Fedi aseesimees) ütleb, et defitsiit on liiga väike

Vice Chairman Stanley Fischer

At the “The Great Recession–Moving Ahead,” a Conference Sponsored by the Swedish Ministry of Finance, Stockholm, Sweden

August 11, 2014

The Great Recession: Moving Ahead

The stance of U.S. fiscal policy in recent years constituted a significant drag on growth as the large budget deficit was reduced. Historically, fiscal policy has been a support during both recessions and recoveries. In part, this reflects the operation of automatic stabilizers, such as declines in tax revenues and increases in unemployment benefits, that tend to accompany a downturn in activity. In addition, discretionary fiscal policy actions typically boost growth in the years just after a recession. In the U.S., as well as in other countries–especially in Europe–fiscal policy was typically expansionary during the recent recession and early in the recovery, but discretionary fiscal policy shifted relatively fast from expansionary to contractionary as the recovery progressed. In the United States, at the federal level, the end of the payroll tax cut, the sequestration, the squeeze on discretionary spending from budget caps, and the declines in defense spending have all curtailed economic growth. Last year, for example, the Congressional Budget Office estimated that fiscal headwinds slowed the pace of real GDP growth in 2013 by about 1-1/2 percentage points relative to what it would have been otherwise. Moreover, state and local governments, facing balanced budget requirements, have responded to the large and sustained decline in their revenues owing to the deep recession and slow recovery by reducing their purchases of real goods and services. Job cuts at federal, state, and local governments have reduced payrolls by almost 3/4 of a million workers, resulting in a decline in total government civilian employment of 3-1/4 percent since its peak in early 2009.7 The fiscal adjustments of the last few years have reduced the federal government deficit to an expected level of 3 percent of GDP in 2014 and fiscal drag over the next few years is likely to be relatively low.



Et defitsiit olevat liiga väike ja see pidurdab majanduskasvu. Me oleme küll vastupidist harjunud kuulma. Ei tea mis siis saab, kui turud enam ei rahasta ja saabub Kreeka stsenaarium, kus raha lihtsalt enam pole?

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Europe’s Huge Failure Is About To Be On Full Display

h/t to Tom Hickey at MNE

Europe’s Huge Failure Is About To Be On Full Display

….Back in 2010-2012, Europe did have a crisis, which it largely solved, and that was the sovereign debt crisis. That was fixed when the ECB offered an implicit debt backstop to every country. That caused borrowing costs to plunge, and removed the fears that a country would default and be forced to leave the common currency.

But nothing else has worked. The countries are still largely on an austerity track (even as debt loads continue to rise) and the ECB has twiddled its thumbs, letting loan growth and inflation fade.

And Q2 likely won’t mark the end of the pain…..

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Europe at risk of going into recession

‘FLATLINER': Germany Is Now At Risk Of Pulling All Europe Back Into Recession

Italy is contracting after GDP shrunk by 0.20% in the second quarter. But Italy is not the only Eurozone economy with growth going nowhere. France is too. So is Spain.

The only remaining star seems to be Germany, with a 0.8% growth rate in the first quarter, Eric Reguly from the Globe and Mail said. But even the brightest candles eventually burn out.

“It may be a flat-liner in the making,” Reguly added. “Last month, the German central bank warned that the economy probably stagnated in the second quarter and today’s report on industrial orders confirmed that growth is almost certainly waning. German industrial orders fell for the second consecutive month, at a 3.2% rate, following at 1.6% fall in May.”…..

Everything Is Coming Apart In Europe

……In stark contrast to the United States and Britain, which are growing strongly, economic output in the euro bloc is likely to have all but ground to a halt in the three months to June. Its star economy, Germany, is losing momentum and Italy is sliding back into recession…..

…..Not only does Moscow supply about a third of the European Union’s gas needs, trade ties in other areas between Russia and Europe run deep.

German energy giant E.ON, for instance, has invested 6 billion euros ($8 billion) since 2007 in Russia, while chemicals firm BASF has a joint venture with Gazprom…..

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Putin kõigutab Draghi prognoose

Putin kõigutab Draghi prognoose

Üha enam on märke, et Venemaa vastu kehtestatud sanktsioonid ja Venemaa vastusanktsioonid ohustavad euroala majanduse toibumist, mida Draghi juba enne sanktsioone nõrgaks nimetas. Euroala inflatsioon jätkas juulis nõrgenemist, euroala suuruselt kolmas majandusruum Itaalia on tagasi languses ning euroala suurima majandusruumi Saksamaa tööstustellimused kahanevad ja usaldusindeksid langevad.

Euroopa Keskpanga tänaselt intressinõupidamiselt siiski keskpanga poliitikas muutust ei oodata – ei uut baasintressi määra kärbet rekordmadalalt 0,15% tasemelt ega uusi poliitikameetmeid. Juuni alguses välja kuulutatud meetmed vajavad esmalt toimimiseks aega.

A stream of poor economic reports from the Eurozone may be more than just the “Putin factor”

1. Italy’s GDP unexpectedly contracted last quarter putting the nation into a third recession in since the financial crisis…….

2. The area’s retail sector took an unexpected turn for the worse last month.

Markit: – The eurozone retail sector started the second half of the year on a weaker footing. The fragility of consumer spending was exposed by the PMI, particularly in France and Italy where the data showed sharper downturns in sales. Even in Germany, the one area of relative strength, there was an appreciable slowdown from June’s recent peak. …….

3. German factory orders contracted at the fastest pace since 2011….

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Eestit kummitab deflatsioonioht

Hinnad langesid Eestis juulis 0,4% võrreldes eelmise aasta sama kuuga. Kõige enam mõjutasid tarbijahinnaindeksi kuumuutust rõivaste ja jalatsite soodusmüügid, teatas statistikaamet.

On huvitav jälgida, et kuhu see välja viib. Pakun, et Jaapani sarnane stagnatsioon on liiga positiivne euroala jaoks. Praegu ei ole näha, et nad poliitiliselt püüaksid protsessi mõjutada eriti. Meil Eestis pole tänu russofoobiale teema üldse laual. Euroopa poliitikud püüavad endiselt end juukseid pidi soost välja tirida. Samas kostub IMF-lt teistsuguseid noote juba mõnda aega ja räägitakse Euroopa Investeerimispanga suuremast sekkumisest, mis võib funktsionaalselt kujutada endast valitsuste defitsiitset kulutamist, kus erasektor saab eurodes denomineeritud neto finantsvarasid. Et mine tea. Ohjad aga tunduvat jääma neoliberaalsete valitsejate kätte olenemata sellest, mis juhtuma hakkab. Need valitsejad manipuleerivad rahva arvamusega ning tulemuseks on see, et raha on ja ei ole. On vaid siis, kui meie valitsejad tahame teile seda anda ja te usute nii seda, et raha on, kui me seda teile anname kui seda, et raha ei ole, kui me teile seda ei anna.

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Public Lecture: Professor Paul de Grauwe on ‘The Future of the Euro’

Muidugi ta ei saa aru, et pangareservid versus valitsuse võlakirjad ei ole inflatsioonilisemad kuidagi, ka tulevikus mitte. Näide tuletõrjujast majandusteadlasest on hea. Selle asemel et maja kustutama hakata, ütleb majandusteadlane, et me ei tohi kustutada, et omanikule õppetund anda :)

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Avaldati 04.08.2014

Farage, who is forty-eight and worked for two decades as a commodities trader and broker, has the charisma of a taproom duke and the appearance of a mongoose (there’s a Tumblr called Meerkats That Look Like Nigel Farage). He has a smoker’s marbly laugh and tawny skin, and, as he credibly claims, “relatively hollow legs,” into which, at the reception, he poured a fair amount of gin. The gathering, billed as “cocktails and strategy,” was roughly two dozen men and two women in the parlor of an East Side private club. Strategizing was limited, it seemed, to jaunty recalibrations of Mitt Romney’s odds, post-Denver.

After a while, Farage made some remarks. “I’m not really a politician,” he began. “I’m actually a businessman. I supported Margaret Thatcher, I believed in Ronald Reagan, I believe in free markets, I believe in small government, enterprise, hard work, and I believe in a taxation system that doesn’t punish those who do well in life.”

“I’ve heard enough,” a man called out, to great laughter.

But Farage had come not so much to flatter supply-side sympathies as to embroider his contention that the euro is toast. “I’m not anti-European at all. I’m married to a German, for goodness’ sake, so I know the dangers of a German-dominated household.” But, he said, “The idea that we should take all these different countries in Europe, force them together against their democratic will, and put them under the control of people like Herman Van Rompuy is, frankly, beyond belief.

“These are very, very dangerous, bad people,” he went on. “They want to stop nation-state democracy.” The consequence, in his view, will likely be violent revolution and political extremism. (A few days later, after hearing that the E.U. had won the Nobel, he said, “I thought it was a joke. I thought it must be April the 1st. The timing is absolutely bizarre. And, anyway, what has kept the peace in Europe since 1945 is not a bunch of overpaid bureaucrats but, rather, NATO, with no small contribution by the United States.”)
Greece, prompting demonstrations and riots. “I mean, how insensitive. Is it any wonder they all turned out wearing swastikas on their arms and giving Nazi salutes? This project, which was supposed to make the countries of Europe love each other, is actually making the countries of Europe hate each other.”

He described a meeting he had with Merkel last year, in which he suggested that everyone would be happier if the Greeks left the euro—the Greeks would be free to default on their debts, re-adopt the drachma, and escape “the economic prison” of the euro zone; and the Germans would no longer have to contemplate bailing them out, in perpetuity. Merkel (who, he said, “outside of the public glare, is a completely different person from the one you see on the TV: she is even more miserable in private”) explained that if the Greeks pulled out, other countries would, too, and that would doom “our European dream.”

“What Merkel is saying,” Farage went on, “is that if the whole of Greece goes bankrupt, if everybody in Greece is starving, if they’re all homeless, that doesn’t matter, we have to preserve our dream. In pursuing something that is clearly a failed economic model, we’re doing just what the Communists did in Soviet Russia.”
“Did you see Merkel today?” he asked. Angela Merkel had visited

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Siim Veskimees: miks on ämber Eesti rahvusjalanõu?

Siim Veskimees: miks on ämber Eesti rahvusjalanõu?

Kirjanik Siim Veskimees kirjutab Postimehe arvamusportaalis, et normaalne riik ei anna oma kodanikke väliskapitali võlaorjusse, vaid juhib oma väärtuste liikumist, kasutades selleks näiteks riigipanka.

Ei ole üksi ükski maa…

Seda anekdooti räägiti vene ajal erinevate tegelastega, küll Nõukogude Eesti kui terve NLi juhtide nimesid kasutades. Et läheb Suur Juht puhkusele ja annab oma asetäitjale (või ENSV juhile) lahendada nende nädalatega kolm kõige põletavamat probleemi, mis segavad kommunismi ehitamist: likvideerida sabad, korteripuudus ja kirikuskäimine. Tuleb siis Suur Juht tagasi ja näe, poodides sabasid ei ole, vastavad väljaanded on täis teateid vabast elamispinnast ja kirikud on inimtühjad… Kohe teiselt küsima, et mida sa siis tegid? «Noh, sabad – mõned piirid panin kinni. Korteriprobleem – mõned piirid tegin jälle lahti… ja kirikutesse lasin sinu pildid panna.» Ja nii ta tervis ootamatult halveneski…

Kui see Suur Jama lõppema hakkas, tulid eestlased välja IME ideega ja diskussioonides öeldi välja elementaarne tõdemus, et paja ühes nurgas ikka paksemat suppi ei keeda. Läks paar aastat ja saimegi idapiiri kinni. Läks veel natuke aega ja saime läänepiiri lahti; salamõte – rehepapid, nagu me oleme – ikka seesama: paja ühes nurgas ei saa ka lahjemat suppi keeta, küll seda tummisemat kraami siiagi triivib.

Triivis ju tegelikult küll; tuleb senini. Ainult et nii, nagu tolles vanas anekdoodis, sõltub palju sellest, mis piirid ikkagi kinni pandi ja mis lahti tehti…

Euroopa Liit (jah, see kasvas välja Söe- ja Teraseliidust ja nii edasi) oli algselt kaubandusliit. Ühte lausesse kokku võetuna tähendab see seda, et sellise liidu piires hinnad tõepoolest enam-vähem ühtlustuvad, pole aga mingit otsest mehhanismi, miks palgad seda tegema peaksid. Niikaua, kui maksud, infrastruktuur, hääleõigus ja paljud muud asjad on endiselt seotud territoriaalsete üksustega (loe: riikidega, mis on aga ilma jäetud enamikust traditsioonilistest majandusruumi kaitsmise instrumentidest, alates tollidest), ühtlustavad palku ainult kaudsed mehhanismid, näiteks kõnnib kvalifitseeritud tööjõud sinna, kus sama töö eest rohkem makstakse. (Seda saab takistada ainult «tagurpidi sunnismaisusega» – töölubadega. Arusaadavalt on pilt keerulisem, siin on kümneid tegureid, alates keelebarjäärist ja ausast koduarmastusest, lõpetades kliima sobivusega, ent need ei muuda asja olemust.)

Et pilti selgemaks teha, kujutleme näiteks, et Eesti maakonnad «iseseisvuksid», st peaksid end oma maksutulust ära elatama – pooltest põgeneksid viimased inimesed juba sel sügisel! Aga kujutleme lisaks, kui teised maakonnad keelduksid nende pensionäre (sissekirjutuse = kodakondsuse alusel) vastu võtmast… Ütleme, see pilt läheb nii jubedaks, kui minna laseme. Aga mis on tänases ELis teistmoodi?…..


Vaba turumajanduse vastane kommunist? Umbes sama mõtet olen olen ma siin blogis kordvalt esitanud seoses euroga, tuues näiteks Ameerika Ühendriike, kus toimuvad fiskaalsed transaktsioonid osariikide vahel.  Muidugi mõne kommertspanga natsionaliseerimine ceteris paribus ei muudaks midagi. USA föderaalvalitsus “ongi ise see pank”.  See on mõnes mõttes identiteedi kriis EL-s. Tahame uniooni, aga samal ajal tahame iseseisvad olla, no kumb siis? Osariigid USA-s ei ole iseseisvad riigid oma keele ja kultuuriga.

Neoliberaalses majanduspoliitikas pole midagi uut, see on toimunud paljudes Ladina Ameerika ja Ida Euroopa riikides enne kümneid kordi. Nüüd on selle ideoloogia hävitustöö jõudnud Euroopa heaoluriikidesse. Häid lahendusi ei tundu enam leiduvat, veel vähem tasub loota Eesti liidrirollile praeguselt kursilt eemaldumiseks. Minu lootus on ikkagi riikidel, kus rahval on kõrgem enesehinnang. Eesti poliitikas on ka Venemaa kaart, mis käiakse alati välja ka siis, kui jutt on eurost loobumisest, me kardame enda suurt naabrit ja seetõttu oleme millega iganes nõus, mida suured dikteerivad. Meie poliitikas tundub domineerivat: mis meist välismaal arvatakse?  Euro on utoopiline projekt ja katastroofi retsept. Kui kaua majanduspoliitilist olukorda lastakse destabiliseerida eurol, seda saame näha. Ise arvan, et euro nurjumist ei aktsepteerita ja korrapärase lammutamise asemel näeme poliitilist kollapsi mõnes liikmesriigis.

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Sociologizing Krugman and His Evolving Worldview

h/t to Tom Hickey at MNE

Sociologizing Krugman and His Evolving Worldview

To be sure, Krugman has in recent years noted that the world in his eyes does have some Marxian elements to it. But he has always done so while implicitly endorsing the fundamental assumptions of classical political economy – e.g., that markets are competitive, thereby tending toward equilibrium – which Marx himself would have never endorsed and which neo-Marxians like Richard Wolff scoff at. Krugman never once – or perhaps never once explicitly – has entertained the view that the system may be being politically managed by the rentier class so as to maintain a high rate of return for the capitalists……

…..The bottom line is that we are slowly starting to see an evolution in Krugman’s worldview. He is inching toward heterodox economists like James Galbraith and Richard Wolff, but not explicitly. It will be interesting to see if Krugman elaborates on how his mind is evolving at the upcoming Rethinking Economics conference in NYC in September.

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Zero Hour: Modern Monetary Theory

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The Biggest Bank Heist Ever!

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