Markit Flash Eurozone PMI

November flash PMI signals weakest eurozone growth for 16 months

Commenting on the flash PMI data, Chris Williamson, Chief Economist at Markit said: “A fall in the eurozone PMI to a 16-month low raises the risk of the region slipping back into a renewed
downturn. The single currency area is struggling to eke out any growth, with the PMI indicating that GDP is likely to have risen by just 0.1-0.2% in the fourth quarter. A drop in new orders for the first time in almost one-and-a-half years, albeit only very marginal, suggests growth could slow further in December. “France remains a key concern, with business activity falling for a seventh successive month and demand for goods and services deteriorating at a faster rate. Growth in Germany has meanwhile slowed to the weakest since the summer of last year, with demand stagnating. The rest of the region as a whole continues to outperform the two
core’ countries, though even here the rate of expansion has cooled.
“Policymakers will no doubt be disappointed that recent announcements and stimulus measures are showing no signs of reviving growth. The deteriorating trend in the surveys will add to
pressure for the ECB to do more to boost the economy without waiting to gauge the effectiveness of previously-announced initiatives.”

What might soothe Europe’s economic pain? Cash handouts

What might soothe Europe’s economic pain? Cash handouts

A school of economists have begun to argue that what European households need is not contorted monetary policy changes but, rather, an influx of cold, hard cash.

In recent attempts to stimulate the European economy and fight deflation, the European Central Bank (ECB), led by President Mario Draghi, has cut its benchmark interest rate to 0.05%, and said it would buy €1 trillion (about $1.25 trillion) in asset-backed securities and bonds.

These changes in monetary policy sent the Euro below $1.24 in early November, its weakest in over two years, making European goods and tourism less expensive abroad. This did not lead to rejoicing on the streets of European cities, however.

“They ought to encourage consumption to reactivate the economy,” said Luis Carrasco, 42, as he stood in front of a Barcelona restaurant where he is a chef.

Many economists would argue that people like Carrasco do not understand that the ECB is doing just that, albeit indirectly; lowering rates and buying assets should get credit flowing, which in turn should increase house prices and household spending.

But another school is arguing that Carrasco is exactly right, and that what European households need is not contorted monetary policy changes but, rather, an influx of cold, hard cash. The ECB should send each European adult a check, they say, and let him spend it how he likes.

John Muellbauer, a professor of economics at the University of Oxford who recently published a piece titled, “Quantitative Easing for the People,” says that sending €500 euro checks to every EU citizen would cost a sixth of the €1 trillion Draghi talks about spending on asset purchases, and would increase EU consumer spending by €34 billion, or 1.4% of GDP.

Jah, USA-s tõepoolest selline eksperiment tehti ja mõju peetakse positiivseks, kuid ECB-l ei ole volitusi, et seda läbi viia.

The Number One Misconception About the Banking System — and Why You Should Care


by Chris Mayer

The Number One Misconception About the Banking System — and Why You Should Care

……Everybody – our readers especially — have seen that chart, which shows the huge increase in excess reserves in the banking system since QE.
So naturally, people think: well, you know, as soon as those reserves leak out into the private sector, you’re going to have massive inflation.

And I thought the same, until sometime around early 2013, where I started to really revaluate everything that I thought about the banking system and how it worked. Because nothing that people were predicting would happen, happened.

In fact, the opposite happened.

Rates didn’t go up, rates went down. Gold didn’t go up, gold went down. Treasure yields are still falling at 2 percent. And the hyperinflation everyone thought was nowhere near.

So I started to reexamine all those assumptions. And because of this reexamination, I think there are many things I’ve learned, but if I had to boil down the one thing I would tell you to remember is that loans create deposits. Banks don’t lend deposits……

Eesti majandus kasvas kolmandas kvartalis 2,1 protsenti

Eesti majandus kasvas kolmandas kvartalis 2,1 protsenti

Esialgsetel andmetel suurenes Eesti sisemajanduse kogutoodang (SKT) 2014. aasta kolmandas kvartalis võrreldes eelmise aasta kolmanda kvartaliga 2,1 protsenti, teatas statistikaamet……

Võib olla saavutame kriisieelse taseme aastalõpuks. Vahepealne kasinus ja kärpimine on muidugi olnud täiesti mõttetud ja vaid piiranud meile täiesti saadaolevat tulemit. Paljud inimesed on töö kaotanud ja kodumaalt lahkunud vahepeal.  Ükski kärpijate argument ei hoia vett. Nüüd räägitakse, et peame 4 korda rohkem ehitama, et elamufond säiliks.  Kuidas on kärpijate argument selle taustal, et selline ehitusbuum ei olnud jätkusuutlik ja see pidi igal juhul lõppema?

Tsipras in Spain, Italy to set up S Europe front

Tsipras in Spain, Italy to set up S Europe front

Alexis Tsipras, will be visiting Spain and Italy, to explore the possibilities of setting up a front of the countries of southern Europe against austerity.

Alexis Tsipras, who this weekend will be visiting Spain and Italy, will explore the possibilities of setting up a front of the countries of southern Europe against austerity and adherence to neoliberal policies imposed by Berlin.

The first stop for the president of SYRIZA will be in Madrid, on Friday, where he will attend the founding conference of the surprise left party  Podemos.

Next stop for the president of SYRIZA is Florence, where he will speak at a special event “Transforme Europe,” on austerity, the Troika, the crisis of democracy during the economic crisis, and relations with trade unions.

Indrek Neivelt: viis ettepanekut maksureformiks

Uudised, ERR

Indrek Neivelt: viis ettepanekut maksureformiks

Kahjuks ei ole ma Indrekuga nõus, sest mitte kordagi ei räägi ta majanduse reaalsest võimekusest või reaalsetest ressurssidest majanduses.

…..P.S. Pean vajalikuks märkida, et ma isiklikult ja minu kontrolli all olevad ettevõtted hakkaks nende ettepanekute rakendamisel sõltuvalt kasumi suurusest maksma vähemalt 100 000 eurot aastas rohkem makse.

Täiesti vale lähenemine, rohkemate maksude kogumine ei saa olla mingisugune eesmärk. Ma ei saa kahjuks Neivelti mõtlemist kuidagi heaks kiita.

Venemaa keskpank laseb rubla kursi vabaks

Venemaa keskpank laseb rubla kursi vabaks

Venemaa keskpank on otsustanud alates 10. novembrist loobuda senisest vahetuskursimehhanismist ja lasta rubla kursi vabalt kõikuma, öeldakse keskpanga avalduses.

See tähendab, et keskpank ei kehtesta enam valuutakorvi suhtes rubla kõikumiskoridori ega sekku nagu seni regulaarselt rubla kursi toetuseks. Kuid see ei tähenda, et keskpank täielikult sekkumisest loobuks. Seda võidakse teha näiteks siis, kui finantsstabiilsus võib ohtu sattuda.

Lähtudes keskpanga heaks kiidetud otsusest, hakkavad rubla vahetuskurssi kujundama turutegurid. See aitab tõhustada keskpanga rahapoliitikat ja tagada hinnastabiilsuse. Lisaks aitab kodumaise valuutaturu uus kord majandusel kiiremini kohaneda välistingimustega ja negatiivsed šokid paremini üle elada.

See on muidugi ainuõige otsus.

Belgian Riots And Confusing Money With Wealth


by John Harvey

Belgian Riots And Confusing Money With Wealth

Yesterday, 100,000 rioters clashed with police in Belgium over government austerity measures that will raise the pension age and reduce social services. These measures are, it was explained, “essential to keep the budget deficit within European Union constraints” (Belgian protesters clash with police over pensions and pay). This is utter nonsense and is yet another example of the confusion between money and wealth that is contributing to economic stagnation throughout the globe.

What we are witnessing is economic policy based on the fallacy of composition. The latter results when one assumes that what is true at the individual level translates to the whole. Sometimes it is true. For example:

Micro Proposition: If I drive more safely, I’ll be in fewer accidents.

Macro Corollary: If everyone in London drives more safely, there will be fewer accidents in London.

TRUE! But:

Micro Proposition: If the Dallas Cowboys improve their defense, they will win more football games.

Macro Corollary: If every team in the National Football League improves their defense, they will all win more games.


Since every game generates one win and one loss, the average winning percentage in the National Football League must always be 50%. It is a zero-sum game. Thus, in this case, the logic of the micro does not extend to the macro and believing otherwise is a fallacy of composition.

Euroala endiselt valel kursil

EKP on valmis triljonieuroseks süstiks

Euroopa esikeskpankur Mario Draghi on saavutanud nõukogu üksmeelse toetuse ühe triljoni euro süstimiseks, et päästa euroala majandus stagnatsioonist.

Kõik Euroopa Keskpanga (EKP) nõukogu 23 liiget nõustusid presidendi ideega tuua asutuse bilanss tagasi tasemele, mida viimati nähti aastal 2012.

Nõukogus saavutatud üksmeel võib sillutada tee agressiivsematele sammudele, kirjutab Financial Times.

Ühe sellise sammuna tuleks arvesse mastaapne riigivõlakirjade kokkuost, juhul kui Jaapani-stiilis deflatsiooni oht püsib…………

Euroala endiselt valel kursil, mida rohkem “trükivad”, seda deflatsioonilisem. Siin on mõeldud muidugi valitsuse võlga, mille ostmine vähendab intressimakseid ja läbi selle valitsuste netokulutamist majandusse.  Erasektori poolt väljaantud finantsvarade kokkuost on arvatavasti neutraalne.  Kui see mõjutab mingi varaklassi hinda, siis sellel võib nõudlusele mõju olla.

Beppe Grillot lugedes

Lugesin Beppe Grillo blogi ja ta kirjutab:

..Will creditors have more confidence in a sovereign state that has its own currency, or in a state that has to get money by taxing its citizens to the hilt? To get an answer, you just have to look at the dynamics of the debt/GDP ratio since 1981, when the Bank of Italy was prevented from creating liras to buy the state bonds that didn’t get sold in the market. From that moment on, interest rates exploded and the debt doubled in just 10 years…..

Sellest jääbki mulje, et kui keskpank iseseisvaks/sõltumatuks kuulutada, siis intressid tõusevad kuidagi turujõudude mõjul. Iseenesest ei ole vahet, kuidas me selle keskpanga nimetame, samuti ei tähenda keeld keskpangale valitsuse võlga osta, et intressid tõusevad. Fed ka ei tohi treasury võlga osta, aga see ei muuda midagi. Tegelikult tõusid intressid tänu sellele, et keskpank nad kõrgele tõstis, sest Itaalia sisenes 1979 nn ERM-i. Ma päris täpselt kursis ei ole Itaalia sündmuste dünaamikaga 80-datel, aga põhimõttelist erinevust pole, kas keelata ujuvkursiga valuutasüsteemis keskpangal otse valitsuselt ostmast või mitte. Intressid Itaalias tõusid ikka tänu ERM-le, mis oli euro eelkäija (keskpank püüdis kõrgemate intressidega liiri kurssi kõrgel hoida ja riigivõlakirjade intressid järgivad üleöö intressi). UK sai ERM-i kogemusest väärtusliku õppetunni ja euroga ei liitunud.  Black Wednesday

In politics and economics, Black Wednesday refers to 16 September 1992 when the British Conservative government was forced to withdraw the pound sterling from the European Exchange Rate Mechanism (ERM) after it was unable to keep the pound above its agreed lower limit in the ERM. George Soros, the most high profile of the currency market investors, made over 1 billion GBP[1] profit by short selling sterling.

Eestis loodi krüptoraha liit

Eestis loodi krüptoraha liit

Täna asutati Eesi Krüptoraha Liit, mille põhieesmärgiks on krüptorahanduse valdkonna arendamine Eestis, osalemine õigusloomes, krüptorahatehnoloogiate leviku toetamine, krüptorahanduse teadlikkuse ja kompetentsi tõstmine Eestis. Samuti koostöö avalik-õiguslike kui ka eraõiguslike juriidiliste ja füüsiliste isikutega nii Eestis kui ka välismaal.

«Ka pealtnäha lihtne küsimus «mis on bitcoin?» on vastuoluline – on see raha, kaup, väärtpaber, tarkvara või miski muu? See ja paljud teised küsimused vajavad vastuseid ning Eesti Krüptoraha Liidu üheks selgeks eesmärgiks on aidata kaasa krüptorahade maksu- ja õiguskeskkonna kujundamisele ning osaleda sellekohases õigusloomes,» sõnas Eesti Krüptoraha Liidu juhatuse liige ja advokaadibüroo GLIMSTEDT partner Priit Lätt.

«Bitcoini kasutajate arv täna on 6,6 miljoni, kuid iga kvartaliga lisandub umbes miljon kasutajat, mis tähendab, et krüptorahast ei saa enam mööda vaadata. See on sama, kui me oleksime 1995. aastal ignoreerinud interneti levikut – siis oli internetikasutajaid 44 miljonit, kuid tänaseks on see arv 3 miljardit,» lisas Eesti Krüptoraha Liidu juhatuse liige ja OÜ Kontaktikeskus juhataja Erki Koldits

Igal juhul positiivne uudis. Eriti veel see, et hakatakse õigusalaste küsimustega tegelema.  Bitcoin on “surnult sündinud” nagu eelnevalt siin korduvalt kirjutanud olen, aga tal on minu arvates tähtis koht just selles, et ta suutis näidata, selline maksesüsteem saab toimida. Nüüd oleks vaja tõsiseid finantsgeek’e, kes mõne projekti käima veaksid ja nii, et krediidinstrumendid “luuakse õhust”, nende taga ei ole valitsuse makse, aga ometi on instrumentide vastu huvi investoritel, sest neid on kasulik osta.  Tehnoloogia eksisteerib täna, õigusalastes küsimustes päris kodus mina pole, kuid midagi väga seadusevastast selles olla ei saa, kui kaks osapoolt omavahel kokku lepivad milleski. Mul on tuttav, kes väidab mulle, et me näeme enda jalge all revolutsiooni toimumas täna. Raske öelda.

The takeaway from six years of economic troubles? Keynes was right.


by Anatole Kaletsky

The takeaway from six years of economic troubles? Keynes was right.

…..The main lesson is that government decisions on taxes and public spending have turned out to be more important as drivers of economic activity than the monetary experiments with zero interest rates and quantitative easing that have dominated media and market attention. Fiscal decisions on budget deficits, taxes and public spending have mostly been debated as if they were largely political choices, with much less influence than monetary policy on macroeconomic outcomes such as inflation, growth and employment. Yet the reality has turned out to be the opposite. While every major economy in the world has followed essentially the same monetary policy since 2008, their fiscal policies have been very different and the divergence in outcomes, especially when we compare the United States and Europe, has been exactly the opposite to what was implied by the rhetoric of most politicians and central banks……

Adair Turner: Germany Is Wrong About Economics And ‘Terrible Things’ Threaten Europe Because Of It

Business Insider

Adair Turner: Germany Is Wrong About Economics And ‘Terrible Things’ Threaten Europe Because Of It

by Mike Bird


………AT: Although I have huge respect for what Germany is as an economic success, a very strong political system…. And I entirely understand their fears of high inflation, etc., I think the predominant German attitude to macroeconomics is simply wrong. There’s a failure to deal with the fallacies of aggregation that are at the core of macroeconomics. It is not possible for the whole world to succeed in the same way that Germany succeeds. We cannot all be export led economies. We can’t all run surpluses unless we find another planet.

IMF’s push for austerity was wrong, says fund’s internal auditor

The Telegraph

By Reuters

IMF’s push for austerity was wrong, says fund’s internal auditor

The IMF urged countries such as Germany, the US and Japan to pursue austerity in 2010-11 before their economies had fully recovered from the crisis

The International Monetary Fund ignored its own research and pushed too early for richer countries to trim budgets after the global financial crisis, the IMF’s internal auditor has said.

The Washington-based multilateral lender, concerned about high debt levels and large fiscal deficits, urged countries such as Germany, the US and Japan to pursue austerity in 2010-11 before their economies had fully recovered from the crisis.

At the same time, the IMF advocated loose monetary policies to sustain growth and boost demand in advanced economies, initially ignoring the possible spillover risks of such policies for emerging market countries, the Independent Evaluation Office (IEO) said in a report that analysed the IMF’s crisis response.

“This policy mix was less than fully effective in promoting recovery and exacerbated adverse spillovers,” the IEO wrote………….

A New Anti-Austerity Party That’s Taking Spain By Storm Could Throw Europe Into Turmoil

A New Anti-Austerity Party That’s Taking Spain By Storm Could Throw Europe Into Turmoil

Following in the wake of Greece’s Syriza, another far-left party has taken a polling lead in Europe. This time, it is Spain’s Podemos, a party founded in March this year, with a distinct and radical platform that could overturn Europe’s political and economic course.

The party has surged in recent months: it gained 8% of the vote in European parliament elections held this May, and is beating every other party in polls.

In the latest set, 27.7% of Spaniards said they would vote for Podemos, beating both the established social democrat party and the governing conservatives…….

Mina näen Euroopa disintegratsiooni algust. Kas just selles konkreetses sündmuses, aga näen. Nn “mainstream establishment” on võimetu praegusi Euroopa probleeme lahendama. Iseenesest ma muidugi ei hõõru käsi, et küll on hea, et nii läks.

Today’s Eurozone seen from an investor’s perspective – Keynote (audio)

hea kuulamine

by Yanis Varoufakis

Today’s Eurozone seen from an investor’s perspective – Keynote (audio)

On 30th October I was invited to address a meeting of German, Austrian and Swiss pension fund managers on how they should make sense of the Eurozone’s current state of play. In this keynote (click below for the audio and the accompanying slides) I present an explanation of the causes underlying the impossible dilemmas pension fund and fixed income managers are facing in Europe today. Plus a proposal of what the ECB ought to do to make a substantial difference.

Merk on Europe and the Fed and Keen on economics and asset price inflation

QE? Inflation as measured by the Commerce Department’s Consumer Price Index or CPI has been unchanged at 1,5% since september 2012. The dollar as measured by the Fed’s broad dollar index is up 6,7 % in value compared to the world’s other currencies.  Meanwhile for price of gold which many investors believed would rise when inflation fears picked up has fallen from over 1700 dollars per ounce to just over 1200 dollars per ounce. That’s a 29% decline. Merk räägib märgist mööda muidugi.

Why Do Banks Want Our Deposits? Hint: It’s Not to Make Loans.

by Ellen Brown

Why Do Banks Want Our Deposits? Hint: It’s Not to Make Loans.

Many authorities have said it: banks do not lend their deposits. They create the money they lend on their books.

Robert B. Anderson, Treasury Secretary under Eisenhower, said it in 1959:

When a bank makes a loan, it simply adds to the borrower’s deposit account in the bank by the amount of the loan. The money is not taken from anyone else’s deposits; it was not previously paid in to the bank by anyone. It’s new money, created by the bank for the use of the borrower.

The Bank of England said it in the spring of 2014, writing in its quarterly bulletin:

The reality of how money is created today differs from the description found in some economics textbooks: Rather than banks receiving deposits when households save and then lending them out, bank lending creates deposits.

Üks QE kommmentaar

Keegi on hinnavaatlus foorumis lingi pannud minu blogisse ja jätnud sellise kommentaari:

Seletaks ise natuke omalt poolt, misasi see QE on ja milleks seda kasutatakse.

Keskpangal on praeguse rahasüsteemi puhul 2 võimalust, mismoodi majandust ergutada: intressimäära langetamine ja QE.

Majanduskriis ja turgude ebakindlus on loonud sellise situtasiooni, kus madala rahanõudluse tõttu on baasintressimäär madal ja madala võlakirjanõudluse tõttu on võlainstrumentide yieldid kõrged (mida vähem usaldusväärsem võlakiri, seda suurem on võlakirja potentsiaalne yield, ja vastupidi). See annab kommertspankadele võimaluse raha teenida ilma raha aktiivsesse majandusse välja laenamata, laenatas keskpanagalt madalama intressimääraga raha ja ostes kõrgema intressimääraga võlakirju. Ehk tegu on puhtal kujul finantsspekulatsiooniga, mis ei toeta majandust mitte mingil moel. Selle ärahoidmiseks sekkub keskpank, kes hakkab läbi OMO ise turult võlakirju kokku ostma, et taastada võlakirjade usaldusväärsust ja langetada nendelt makstavaid intresse, mis peaks siis kommertspankasid sundima tegelema rohkem sellega, milleks nad on loodud – laenude väljastamisega.

Artikkel ise on nii ja naa, mõndade faktivigadega, aga soovitan kõikidel majandusest huvituvatel kommentaare lugeda. Peaks pildi kõvasti selgemaks looma

Kõigepealt, tule siia mees, ma sulle näitan faktivigasid  :)

See on peavoolu paradigmas jutt. Baasintress ei ole madal madala rahanõudluse tõttu. Mingisugust “loomulikku” intressimäära ei eksisteeri, see on keskpanga poolt kehtestatud. Monetaaroperatsioonidest annab selgema ülevaate ehk hinnastabiilsus ja täistööhõive.

See annab kommertspankadele võimaluse raha teenida ilma raha aktiivsesse majandusse välja laenamata, laenatas keskpanagalt madalama intressimääraga raha ja ostes kõrgema intressimääraga võlakirju.

Vastupidi, QE tulemusel antakse võlakirjade asemel raha (reserve) pankadele. Kui küsimus oleks esitatud nii, et kas kõrgete intressidega riiklike võlakirjade väljastamine loob teatud grupile “parasiitliku sissetuleku”, siis jah.  Kui neid ei väljastataks ja valitsus lihtsalt krediteeriks pangakontod, siis sellist intressisissetulekut ju poleks.  Täna kehtestab keskpank üleöö intressimäära ja kõik teised intressid järgivad seda ning tulevikuootusi keskpanga intressiotsuste kohta tulevikus. Mingeid võimalusi see kommertspankadele “raha teenida ilma laene väljastamata” ei loo. Nad laenaksid tõenäoliselt reaalmajandusse sama palju ka ilma QE-ta. Asi on nõudluses majanduses, pankasid süüdistada ei saa, ikka valitsusi tuleb süüdistada, et need erasektori säästmistahet rahuldada ei taha.

MMT-raha maksude maksmiseks saab tulla vaid valitsuselt


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