UPDATE 2-ECB’s Constancio – default no reason to quit euro as Greece cash pinch worsens

UPDATE 2-ECB’s Constancio – default no reason to quit euro as Greece cash pinch worsens

FRANKFURT, April 20 (Reuters) – A country that defaults would not have to leave the euro, the European Central Bank’s vice president said on Monday, in frank remarks about Greece that also touched on possible capital controls and showed how acute Athens’ problems have become.

Speaking as Greece ordered public sector entities to transfer idle reserves to the central bank to help with a cash squeeze, Vitor Constancio discussed the possibility of a debt default and controls on the movement of money, saying neither necessarily meant a departure from the currency bloc.

“If a default will happen … the legislation does not allow that a country that has a default … can be expelled from the euro,” he told the European Parliament, saying that Greek banks had been told not to increase their exposure to the state to avoid “a possible credit event regarding the state”.

 

Bond yields vanish across euro zone on Grexit worries

Bond yields vanish across euro zone on Grexit worries

LONDON: German 10-year borrowing costs resumed a fall towards zero on Monday, with worries about Greece exiting the euro zone increasing demand for top-rated assets and with the ECB’s bond-buying programme quashes yields. Yields were vanishing across the euro zone. Belgium became the sixth euro zone country to sell five-year bonds at a negative yield after Finland, Germany, Austria, the Netherlands and France. Demand was 1.68 times the offer, despite the average yield being minus 0.056 per cent……

Neljandat kuud oli eurotsoon deflatsioonis, kuigi deflatsioon andis järele, aastases võrdluses oli märtsis deflatsioon 0,1%.

Eurotsooni jaemüügi PMI 48,6 aprillil avaldatud, see kahanes, aga oli 4 kuu kõrgeim.

Demokraatlik raha helikopteritelt

Simon Wren-Lewis kirjutab rahast tegelikult üsna läbi MMT prisma, et mis oleks, kui helikopteri raha (metafoor kasutusele tulnud Milton Friedmani poolt) oleks demokraatlik. Kui keskpankadelt oleks iseseisvus ära võetud? Iseenesest õige mõte. Õige mõte juba seetõttu, et meil on mingisugune asutus, mis seisab justkui kõrgemal demokraatlikult valitud valitsusest, seda juhivad demokraatlikku mandaati mitteomavad tehnokraadid. Muidugi teisest küljest MMT väidab, et praegune ujuvkursiga süsteem juba on riigikassa põhine, mitte ei tuleks selleks muuta ja valitsust ei piira praegu miski. Samas sai tänu sellisele “keskpankade iseseisvusele” ka euro sellisel kujul üldse sündida.  Üks on aga kindel, iseenesest on ju vale, et meil on niisugune institutsioon, mis kasvõi näiliselt seisab valitsusest kui mitte kõrgemal, siis iseseisvana. Siis võiks ju öelda, et teeme Eesti Energia ka iseseisvaks ja paneme tehnokraadid seda juhtima, muidu poliitikud kuritarvitavad oma elektrijanu? Can helicopter money be democratic?

Helicopter money started as an abstract thought experiment: money would be created and just distributed to individuals by helicopter. If we think of a consolidated government which includes its central bank, then it is clear that in technical terms this is a combination of monetary policy (the creation of money) and fiscal policy (the government giving individuals money). Economists call such combinations a money financed fiscal stimulus. With the advent of Quantitative Easing (QE), it has also been called QE for the people.
Some have tried to suggest that central banks could undertake helicopter money for the first time without the involvement of governments. This is a fantasy that those who dislike the idea of government have concocted. Others who dislike the idea of fiscal policy have suggested that helicopter money is not really a fiscal transfer. That is also nonsense.
Helicopter money is a particular form of money financed fiscal stimulus. It has two key features among the class of all possible money financed fiscal measures. The first is that it involves a particular kind of fiscal policy. A helicopter would distribute this fiscal transfer randomly, but what most people have in mind is an equal distribution to every person (adult?) – a kind of reverse poll tax, or what economists would call a lump sum transfer. The second is that, once the apparatus for helicopter money had been established by the government, its use would be initiated by the central bank, whereas other fiscal transfers are initiated by the government.
I want to suggest that it is this second aspect that is critical. You could imagine the government making a transfer to every person, and you could also imagine the central bank distributing money to only those people who paid income tax the previous year. The fact that helicopter money is initiated by the central bank seems more like a defining characteristic. If helicopter money could be ordered by the government, we would say that the central bank was no longer independent…..

See mõte rasvases osas ongi see, mille kohta MMT väidab, et juba praegu saab valitsus seda helikopteri raha tellida iga kell, tal tuleb vaid defitsiitselt kulutada. Mina ütlen endiselt, et jutt keskpankade iseseisvusest on muinasjutt. Iseasi kas meil selliseid muinasjutte vaja on ja euro sündimine oma praegusel kujul näitab ju selgelt, et sellised muinasjutud on suutnud kahju tekitada. Kui mõni mõtleb öelda, et poliitikud ei saa hakkama monetaarasjadega ja meil on spetsialiste vaja keskpanka, siis need tehnokraadid seal on kõikjal ja alati demonstreerinud, millised “spetsialistid” nad on.

Euro langemise põhjuseid

hat tip to Warren Mosler

Euro’s Reserve Status Jeopardized as Central Banks Dump Holdings

By Kevin Buckland David Goodman

April 10 (Bloomberg) — Quantitative easing may be helping Europe achieve its economic targets, but it’s also undermining the long-term viability of the euro by tarnishing its allure as a global reserve currency.

Central banks cut their euro holdings by the most on record last year in anticipation of losses tied to unprecedented stimulus. The euro now accounts for just 22 percent of worldwide reserves, down from 28 percent before the region’s debt crisis five years ago, while dollar and yen holdings have both climbed, the latest data from the International Monetary Fund show.

“As a reserve currency, the euro is falling apart,” said Daniel Fermon, a strategist at Societe Generale SA in Paris. “As long as you have full quantitative easing, there’s no need to invest. The problem for the moment is we don’t see a floor for the currency. Money’s flowing out.”

European Central Bank President Mario Draghi has in the past welcomed the drop-off in reserve managers’ holdings because a weaker exchange rate makes the continent more competitive. Yet firms including Mizuho Bank Ltd. warn the currency’s waning popularity reflects a more lasting loss of confidence in an economy that shrank in two of the past three years.

Sinking Economically

The decline in euro reserves suggests other central banks consider the ECB’s 1.1 trillion euros ($1.2 trillion) of QE bond purchases, which started a month ago, to be the biggest threat to the currency’s global status since its 1999 debut.

Greece’s debt woes aren’t helping, either. The ECB ramped up the emergency funding available to Greek banks Thursday to alleviate the country’s worsening liquidity issues amid drawn-out negotiations over its bailout.

Outright Sales

National Australia Bank Ltd. estimates reserve managers sold at least $100 billion-worth of euros in the fourth quarter of 2014.

“Most of the fall in the euro share represented outright selling of euros” rather than simply reflecting declines in the exchange rate, said Ray Attrill, the bank’s global co-head of currency strategy in Sydney.

Of the $6.1 trillion of reserves for which central banks specify a currency, the proportion of euros fell in every quarter of 2014, IMF data show. Last year was also the first time euro holdings fell in cash terms.

Euro Weakening

Yen holdings increased in three of the four quarters and make up 4 percent of the total, up from as low as 2.8 percent in early 2009. Dollars account for the biggest proportion at 63 percent after reserve managers increased their holdings in the final six months of last year. That’s down from as much as 73 percent in 2001.

The changes came as the yen and euro each sank 12 percent versus the greenback last year. The euro has tumbled about the same amount since then, which should further shrink its presence in central banks’ war chests.

The euro’s also falling against its broader peers, dropping more than 7 percent this year among a basket of its Group of 10 nations tracked by Bloomberg Correlation-Weighted Indexes, the biggest decline in the group. The dollar climbed almost 7 percent on the prospect of higher U.S. interest rates, beating a gain of about 6 percent in the yen.

 

Mõttetud Syriza klounid

Mõttetud Syriza klounid ja Bill kirjutab väga hästi neist.

Friday lay day – The Troika is the enemy and its either exit or capitulation

…..He says that what is “at stake” in the current political machinations in Europe is:

… the future of Europe and beyond that, to the meaning of the word democracy in our time … [and Syriza and the Greek people] … have dismantled – I think definitively – and banished an entire previous political class.

The so-called progressive left in Europe is enchanted with this ideal of ‘Europe’ as an expression of sophistication and unity. It is a pipe dream……   Ja Galbraith näitas ka oma tõelist palet.

Kognitiivset dissonantsi soovides

European Jobless Rates By Country: Youth Unemployment In Greece, Spain Remains Over 50%

……So while the ECB is desperately focused on masking the biggest issue plaguing Europe’s financial system which is the several trillion in undisclosed bad loans on the books of bank balance sheets, Europe may want to address what is the real demographic timebomb, and one which assures that the current experiment will surely end in either the war or revolution predicted by Paul Tudor Jones, because when half the population spends its days without hope or a sense of responsibility, the only possible outcome is quite clear and it is also quite disastrous for European civil society.

Soovin kõigile kognitiivset dissonantsi.  Selleks, et sa MMT juurde jõuaksid, pead sa sügavalt kahtlema peavoolu seletustes. Sulle peab tunduma, et midagi on neis valesti ja sinu peas peavad tekkima mõned küsimused. Alles siis ilmub sinu ette MMT õpetaja, enne mitte.  Paljalt poliitilisest protestivaimust ja süsteemi vastu olemisest kahjuks ei aita. Tänan kõiki lugejaid ja kaasamõtlejaid.

Greece to vote on anti-poverty bill vote despite EU challenge

Greece to vote on anti-poverty bill vote despite EU challenge

Athens (AFP) – Greece will go ahead with a vote in parliament Wednesday on a “humanitarian crisis” bill to help its poorest households, ignoring apparent pressure from the EU to halt the legislation.

Athens has reacted angrily to a request from Declan Costello, a representative on the European Commission team monitoring Greece, telling the government not to make a “unilateral” move.

In this latest skirmish between the Greeks and their creditors, government spokesman Gabriel Sakellaridis said the Commission’s move amounted to a “veto” of the bill and added to the “pressure” on Greece……

Greece ‘will not take orders’, says Tsipras

Europaradiisi mõjud Soomes

Kõrged palgad maksavad Soomele kätte

Soome heaoluriik on vankumas, sest kõrged palgad, õigemini palkade kasvu jätkumine vaatamata majanduslangusele on muutnud sealse majanduse konkurentsivõimetuks.Financial Times alustas pikka artiklit Soome majandusest kirjeldusega, kuidas igal hommikul kogunevad Helsingis inimesed pikka, sadadesse inimestesse ulatuvasse järjekorda. «Nad ei oota mitte Nokia või Apple’i uut mudelit, vaid midagi palju maisemat: mune, võid, piima, banaane, mahla ja teisi toiduaineid,» kirjutas majandusleht……

Honduras Is Sold as a Libertarian Paradise — I Went, and Discovered a Capitalist Nightmare

Honduras Is Sold as a Libertarian Paradise — I Went, and Discovered a Capitalist Nightmare

…In America, libertarian ideas are attractive to mostly young, white men with high ideals and no life experience that live off of the previous generation’s investments and sacrifice.  I know this because as a young, white idiot, I subscribed to this system of discredited ideas:  Selfishness is good, government is bad. Take what you want, when you want and however you can.  Poor people deserve what they get, and the smartest, hardworking people always win.  So get yours before someone else does.  I read the books by Charles Murray and have an autographed copy of Ron Paul’s “The Revolution.” The thread that links all the disparate books and ideas is that they fail in practice.  Eliminate all taxes, privatize everything, load a country up with guns and oppose all public expenditures, you end up with Honduras.

In Honduras, the police ride around in pickup trucks with machine guns, but they aren’t there to protect most people.  They are scary to locals and travelers alike.  For individual protection there’s an army of private, armed security guards who are found in front of not only banks, but also restaurants, ATM machines, grocery stores and at any building that holds anything of value whatsoever.  Some guards have uniforms and long guns but just as many are dressed in street clothes with cheap pistols thrust into waistbands.  The country has a handful of really rich people, a small group of middle-class, some security guards who seem to be getting by and a massive group of people who are starving to death and living in slums.  You can see the evidence of previous decades of infrastructure investment in roads and bridges, but it’s all in slow-motion decay…..

…..Everyone believes in freedom, but it’s an idea both fetishized and unrecognizable when spouted by libertarians.  There can be no such thing as freedom, safety or progress of any kind, when an entire society is run for the benefit of a handful of rich assholes and global conglomerates.  If you think I’m overstating it, just go to Honduras and see it for yourself.

Costas Lapavitsas: The Syriza strategy has come to an end

Costas Lapavitsas: The Syriza strategy has come to an end

What’s your opinion on the negotiations so far? How is the government doing?

The Syriza strategy has been – and it remains – that a change in the political alignment of forces in Greece, in Europe, or generally, would act as a catalyst in the Eurozone. This strategy has now come to an end. The real question is how long it will be before people understand it.

I was always extremely skeptical of it. I always argued that it isn’t just about political alignment, there are institutional mechanisms and the logic of the monetary union. And those who believe that a simple change of politics is enough to transform this, were mistaken and I think this has been confirmed. What we’ve seen is that the institutional framework of the Eurozone and the ideological machinery attached to it are not susceptible to arguments that come from electoral realignments. So the agreement of the 20th of February at the Eurogroup reflects that.

Muidugi, see oligi põhiline Euroopa poliitika kritiseerijate jutt. Need inimesed, kellega Syriza pidi läbi rääkima, ei ole mingid pehmed kaisukarud, kes nutma hakkavad, kui kodutuid või isegi ravimite puudusel surevaid inimesi näevad Kreekas.  Neil on oma poliitiline agenda, neid ei huvita, kui halvasti Kreeka majandusel läheb.

So there is no middle way?

There is no middle way. The Eurozone will not allow it. Do I think the leadership was surprised? Yes, I suspect they were to a certain extent. Because my reading of the situation is that the leadership genuinely believed that you could change the political alignments, you could change electoral arithmetic, and on this basis change Europe, change European policies.

See tundus mulle nii naiivsena, et kahtlustasin pikka aega, et Syriza bluffib.

So what should the Greek government do in your opinion?

Greece needs to consider the true alternative path which is to leave this failed monetary union. It is clearly the only way that was there from the beginning – which is basically exit. If you are going to apply such a programme, as Syriza has proclaimed, which is not radical – Syriza’s programme is just moderate Keynesianism -, you need to think seriously of how you are going to get out of the confines of the Eurozone.

Ma ka ei näinud mingit kommunismi või isegi radikaalsust nende programmis. Pigem on vastaspoolel radikaalsed kasinlased.

Minu arvates on kõik need unistajad, kes arvavad, et aitab sellest, kui poliitikat muuta eurotsoonis. Seda ei ole minu meelest ka kõige parema tahtmise juures võimalik muuta. Ei ole mõtet kritiseerida Euroopa poliitikat ja samal ajal euroga jätkamist pooldada. See ei tööta, unistage edasi Euroopa reformimisest.

Tjah….

At less than 24 hours’ notice the European Commission has vetoed a key law set to be passed by the Greek parliament tomorrow.

The so-called “humanitarian crisis bill” was set to provide free electricity for some households, and address poverty among pensioners and homeless families.

But in a communication seen by Channel 4 News, Declan Costello, director at the EC’s directorate for economic and financial affairs, has ordered the radical left-led coalition governemnt in Greece to stop. A planned law to allow tax arrears to be paid in instalments, set before the Greek parliament on Thursday, has also been vetoed.

The move comes as Alexis Tsipras, the Greek PM (pictured below left, with European Commission President Claude Juncker), called for five-party talks at Thursday’s summit, and ahead of a critical decision by the European Central Bank over restoring borrowing facilities to Greek banks……..

Kui Kreeka parlament selle seaduse vastu võtab, siis see on vastuolus tingimustega, millele Varoufakis alla kirjutas. Rahakraanid keeratakse kinni, kõik, finito….

Inglise Keskpank: Kreeka ei suuda ühegi realistliku stsenaariumi järgi võlga ära maksta

Bank of England director: ‘Greece will not in any realistic scenario repay its debts’

Alex Brazier, executive director for financial stability strategy and risk, says political pressure means Greece will never run a budget large enough to repay its debts.

A senior Bank of England official has said that Greece will never be able to get rid of its enormous debt mountain, since the “political pain” that its leaders would suffer would make it impossible.

Alex Brazier said that Greece could, in theory, run a surplus large enough to shrink its debt mountain, which currently runs to 176pc of GDP, after bail-outs worth €245bn.

However, he said no elected government would be able to do so, suggesting that Greece will be left with an enormous debt overhang for some time.

Figures from the Bank of Greece released on Monday showed the country had fallen back into deficit over the first two months of the year. Greece was in the red by €684m January and February, compared to a €139m surplus it registered over the same period last year……

Eks tegemist ole juba omamoodi seebiooperiga. Sellegipoolest on huvitav, et mis saama hakkab.  Kreekas on jah natuke end imelikult väljendav valitsus. Kord ütlevad, et maksavad oma võlad, siis jälle, et mitte, kord ütlevad, et laenutingimustega nad ei nõustu, siis kirjutavad ise alla sisuliselt samale asjale. Muidugi Kreeka süüdistamine siin oleks vale, kuigi võiks ju rääkida nende korruptsioonist jne. Süüdi on eurosüsteem. Uuele valitsusele oli ilmselt Kreeka liiga keerulises situatsioonis ja eks ebakindlust, teadmatust ning peataolekut ole igas valitsuses, rääkimata siis inimestest, kes pole enne valitsuses olnud ja satuvad nii tugeva rahvusvahelise surve alla. Praegu tundub, et neid kauaks eurotsoonis ei ole. Ma loodan, et nad riigivara erastamise abil raha hankimise sotsiaalkulutustele varsti lõpetavad.

Kõige selle taga tundub olevat hirm ja sellest avalikult ei räägita. Ega meie ka Euroopas ei räägi, et üks tugev EL-i kuulumise argument meie rahva jaoks on hirm Venemaa ees. Kreeka vasakpoolsed justkui kardavad, et mis siis saab, kui Euroopat enam nende seljataga pole.

Greek military junta of 1967–1974

The country descended into a prolonged political crisis, and elections were scheduled for late April 1967. On 21 April 1967 a group of right-wing colonels led by Colonel George Papadopoulos seized power in a coup d’état establishing the Regime of the Colonels. Civil liberties were suppressed, special military courts were established, and political parties were dissolved.

Several thousand suspected communists and political opponents were imprisoned or exiled to remote Greek islands. Alleged US support for the junta is claimed to be the cause of rising anti-Americanism in Greece during and following the junta’s harsh rule. The junta’s early years also saw a marked upturn in the economy, with increased foreign investment and large-scale infrastructure works. The junta was widely condemned abroad, but inside the country, discontent began to increase only after 1970, when the economy slowed down.

Even the armed forces, the regime’s foundation, were not immune: In May 1973, a planned coup by the Hellenic Navy was narrowly suppressed, but led to the mutiny of the HNS Velos, whose officers sought political asylum in Italy. In response, junta leader Papadopoulos attempted to steer the regime towards a controlled democratization, abolishing the monarchy and declaring himself President of the Republic.

Euroopa riigid trügivad Hiina uude investeerimispanka

Euroopa riigid trügivad Hiina uude investeerimispanka

…..Euroopa suuremate majanduste liitumine AIIB-ga on tõsiselt pahandanud USAd, kes on Jaapaniga koos suuremad osanikud konkureerivas regionaalses pangas ADB (Asian Development Bank).

USAd teeb murelikuks peamiselt see, et Hiina tugevdab pangaga oma mõju maailma majanduses; avalikult on USA ametiisikud öelnud, et seni kuni panga asutamisdokumente ei ole avalikustatud, ei saa olla kindel, et selle tegutsemismudel on sama läbipaistev kui näiteks Maailmapangal või ADB-l.

Varoufakis ja Schäuble ühte ruumi ei mahu, Varoufakis ütleb, et näpunäitamine kontekstist väljas

 

Schäuble loses cool in Greek war of words

…“They’ve destroyed all trust. It’s a serious setback,” Schäuble said in Berlin.

He added that he didn’t know anyone in the international institutions who understood what Athens was planning, and accused the radical-left Syriza government there of lying to their citizens.

Schäuble himself has been the target of repeated verbal sallies by members of the Greek government, while calls for Germany to pay reparations for war crimes committed during the Nazi occupation of the country have grown.

Tsipras’ visit to Berlin next Monday is intended to calm the waters between the two countries, as the Prime Minister steps forward to negotiate in place of Finance Minister Yanis Varoufakis…..

Varoufakis on nüüd oma sõnadest taganenud ja ütleb, et sakslastele näpunäitamine on kontekstist välja rebitud, enam ei eita, et tema seda tegi.

…The gesture was taken out of context, he argues, as it formed part of an hour-long lecture he gave in 2013 about the early days of the financial crisis in May 2010 – before Greece owed Germany any money at all….

Ma jätaksin selle siiasamasse, juhtub parimateski perekondades :)

Varaoufakis ja Schäuble enam ühte ruumi ära ei mahu ja nüüd sõidab Tsipras Berliini Merkeliga kohtuma.

And here is the ‘undoctored’ by the unscrupulous media’s video: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MEUWxNifJJ8 

Mosler euro/dollari kursist

trade and the dollar/euro- supply and demand doing their thing

Note how the portfolio shifting that caused the dollar to appreciate has also caused the US trade deficit, excluding petroleum, to likewise increase. That is, it’s not wrong to say that the global portfolios shifting to dollars are getting more and more of those dollars from US resident’s growing net purchases of imports.

And likewise the EU is experiencing a rising trade surplus as the weak euro/strong dollar has increased EU ‘competitiveness’ by lowering their costs of labor and other domestic inputs vs their trading partners. From the EU point of view they are net selling to US residents and the selling those dollars/buying euro in the market place to get the euro they need to meet their domestic costs of production. This ‘removes’ the euro that are being sold to buy dollars.

This process continues as portfolios afraid of QE and negative rates continue to shift from euro to dollars, driving the exchange rate to the point where the trade flows accommodate their demands as markets continually adjust to express indifference levels.

Note however, that today, for example, the currencies are priced by portfolios where the US has a reasonably large and growing trade deficit and the EU has a reasonably large and growing trade surplus accommodating the ongoing portfolio shifting from euro to dollars. But what happens when the portfolio shifting subsides (which it sooner or later does as portfolios can only shift what they have in stock)? With the exchange rate at a level that is adding dollars and removing euro in line with the prior desired portfolio shifting, a drop in portfolio dollar buying/euro selling means the trade flows are generating an excess supply of dollars and creating a shortage of euro, in which case the exchange rate at the same time adjusts as per the new supply/demand dynamic. In other words, when that happens the dollar falls vs the euro and continues to fall until the trade flows sufficiently reverse to ‘restore’ balance.

From a trading point of view, however, I don’t know when the reversal will take place or from what level, but if any of you might know please let me know thanks!

us-trade-deficit

eu-trade-balance

Tasakaalus eelarve konstitutsiooni

Oklahoma lawmakers pass bills for constitutional convention

OKLAHOMA CITY (AP) – Oklahoma lawmakers have passed resolutions asking Congress to convene a constitutional convention to consider a balanced budget amendment to the U.S. Constitution.

Members of the Oklahoma House and Senate adopted separate measures Wednesday that call on Congress to convene a constitutional convention at the request of the states. The House passed the measure 53-42 and the Senate adopted its measure by a vote of 26-20.

The resolutions would add Oklahoma to the list of almost 30 states that have petitioned Congress for a constitutional convention. The constitution requires two-thirds of the 50 states, or 34, request a convention…..

Kui tõepoolest peaks konstitutsiooni saama sisse kirjutatud tasakaalus eelarve kohustuslikkus, siis see tähendaks katastroofi. Ka Reagan ei saaks siis enam vaba turumajandusega USA majandust sotsialistide käest ära päästa.  Enamus ameeriklasi pooldab seda ideed.

The Most Dangerous Woman in America

h/t to Tom Hickey at MNE

The Most Dangerous Woman in America

SEATTLE—Kshama Sawant, the socialist on the City Council, is up for re-election this year. Since joining the council in January of 2014 she has helped push through a gradual raising of the minimum wage to $15 an hour in Seattle. She has expanded funding for social services and blocked, along with housing advocates, an attempt by the Seattle Housing Authority to allow a rent increase of up to 400 percent. She has successfully lobbied for city money to support tent encampments and is fighting for an excise tax on millionaires. And for this she has become the bête noire of the Establishment, especially the Democratic Party……

….I met Sawant in a restaurant a block from City Hall in Seattle. She is as intense as she is articulate. Sawant, born in India, is a leader of the Socialist Alternative Party. She holds a doctorate in economics from North Carolina State University and before her election to the City Council was a professor at a community college. She knows that there will be no genuine reforms, let alone systemic change, without the building of radical mass movements and a viable third party. She is as familiar at Seattle street demonstrations, where she has been arrested, as she is in City Council hearings. If there is any hope left for the absurdist political theater that characterizes election campaigns it is in renegades such as Sawant…..

Iseenesest õige, et radikaale on vaja. Mainstream vasak- ja parempoolsed püüavad kaitsta status quo’d ja enda poliitilisi privileege selles süsteemis. Ta tahab rohujuure tasandil massiivset poliitilist liikumist organiseerida. Ma arvan, et selle õnnestumiseks on tarvis esiteks massilist rahulolematust praeguse süsteemi vastu, teiseks peaks olema sellisel liikumisel intellektuaalselt tasemel liidrid (minu arvates puudusid OWS liikumisel) , kolmandaks peaksid nad olema kahe jalaga maa peal selles mõttes, et mitte unistada: kujutame ette, et elame kosmoses ja kujundame oma eesmärgid sellele vastavalt (a la Kreeka, lõpetame kasinuse ja jätkame euroga).  Pane tähele, ta on bête noire demokraatidele. Muuseas kõige suuremad MMT vastased on ikkagi ka vasakpoolsed. Nad seisavad minu arvates poliitilise hierarhia eest ja arvavad, et MMT seda ohustab.

Need jätkusuutmatud defitsiidid…..

h/t to Bill Mitchell

2009 aasta oktoobris oli töötus USA-s 10%, valitsuse defitsiit oli 9,8% SKP-st.  1945 aasta defitsiit oli 9,9%, vahepeal ei ole nii suuri defitsiite nähtud.

John B Taylor (Stanford), kes oli valjuhäälne USA stiimulpaketi kriitik, kirjutas New York Daily News’es  august 31, 2009

The coming debt debacle: Top economist says President Obama must
slash spending, now

These large deficits represent a systemic risk to the economy … Without spending discipline, damaging tax increases are required to close such deficits, and that is why rumors of new value-added tax are circulating. The deficits would also bring a long painful period of high inflation like the late 1960s and 1970s, a period of frequent recessions and persistently high unemployment when people began to lose confidence in the dollar.

See oli üsna iseloomulik tolleaegsele (mainstream) akadeemilisele mürale. Tänaseks ei ole ükski nendest hirmudest realiseerunud, aga New Orleans’i lahing jätkub, sest sõja lõpust ei ole teated lahinguväljale jõudnud. Nüüd hakkab jälle võlalae komejant Ameerikas pihta.

Bloomberg

The Trillion-Dollar Platinum Coin Is Back

Varoufakis valetab

Greece finance minister says video of him giving finger to Germany is fake

See video oli ammu enne liikvel, kui Varoufakisest rahandusminister sai. Muidugi saksa meedia näitas seda videot ja ei öelnud, et Varoufakis rääkis 2010 situatsioonist.

 

……Columnist Stefan Niggemeier, founder of media watchdog website Bildblog, pointed out that the ARD had clipped out the audio when Varoufakis referred to January 2010, making it look as though Varoufakis was illustrating Greece’s current attitude.

In response, Andreas Cichowitz, ARD editor responsible for the show, said on Twitter that it should have been made clear that Varoufakis was referring to 2010.

On Monday ARD released a statement saying it had found “no indication whatsoever of manipulation or forgery in the video shown during the live broadcast”….

Yanis Varoufakis, diktaator?

Varoufakisest on omamoodi staar saanud. Esiteks  sellepärast, et ta seisab kasinuse vastu, lisaks on ta võib olla rikkunud “poliitilist etiketti” oma stiiliga.  Kasinuse vastasus kõlas hästi paljudele, aga tekkis küsimus, et kuidas.

Nüüd on Varoufakis tulnud välja juba konkreetsema plaaniga, et kuidas seda saaks teha Euroopas ja kuidas euro raamistikus võiks senise poliitika hüljata (loe peataolekust üle saada).   Varoufakise plaan sisaldab rahvusliku demokraatia jätkumist ja mitte föderaalse Euroopa loomist.

Presenting an agenda for Europe at AMBROSETTI (Lake Como, 14th March 2015)

Postitus on küllaltki pikk ja minu meelest ta kirjeldab üsna õigesti eurost tulenevaid probleeme praeguses poliitilises realiteedis. Lahendusena pakub välja üleeuroopalist investeerimisprogrammi, mida teeks Euroopa Investeerimispank.  Ta eeldab, et Euroopal on tarvis suuri investeeringuid, et majandus kasvama saada. Selles eelduses iseenesest on teatud moraalset liiki error (tarbimise tootmise skaalal), sest me teame, et paljud olemasolevad investeeringud “ei tasu ära end” näiteks Hispaanias, kus on paljud lennuväljad ja maanteed, mida alakasutatakse. Võib olla siiski ei ole Euroopal investeeringuid vaja? Aga selle ma jätaksin praegu (võib olla need lennuväljad ja maanteed oleksid kasutuses, kui Hispaania majandus opereeriks täisvõimsusel) ja vaataks Varoufakise plaani:

1.Euroopa Investeerimispangale antakse roheline tuli rakendamaks ellu üleeuroopalist investeeringutest juhitud taastusprogrammi, mis oleks 8% suurune euroala SKP-st ja kontsentreeruks suurtele infrastruktuuri projektidele,  start-up´dele, väikeste ja keskmise suurusega innovaatilistele firmadele ja rohelise energia arendamisele.

2. Euroopa Investeerimispank on aastaid väljastanud võlakirju, mis rahastavad investeeringuid 50% ulatuses. Selle programmi raames peaks EIP rahastama selliseid projekte 100% ja loobuma nõudest, et 50% rahastus tuleks  liikmesriikide allikatest.

3. Kindlustamaks madalaid intresse EIP võlakirjadele, teataks Euroopa Keskpank, et on valmis järelturul sekkuma ning ostma kuipalju tahes EIP võlakirju, et intresse madalal hoida.

 

1.Mõneti on enda sisult tegemist Euroopa Föderaalvalitsusega keskpanga vormis, kel pole valijate ees mitte mingisugust vastutust.

2. EIP bondid on “mustkunst”, mis on oma sisult sama nagu rahastamine Euroopa Keskpanga reservide poolt. Hea küll, Euroopa Keskpanga intresse kandvad deposiidid, mis on ju Euroopa Keskpanga poolt väljastatud võlakirjad oma sisult, neil on tähtaeg ja nad maksavad intresse (EKP väljastas selliseid deposiite oma steriliseerimise programmi käigus).

3. Yanis Varoufakis usub keskpankade diktatuuri, samal ajal teeb etteheiteid Kuldsele Koidikule?

4. Tsentraalne võim ilma igasuguse võimaluseta valimiskasti juures seda välja vahetada, kuidas see erineb autoritarismist?

5.Mingisugune seltskond juhib investeeringuid 8% ulatuses SKP-st, neil on poliitiline seljatagune ja kaitse, aga mitte vastutust valija ees?

Selle postituse pealkiri on provokatiivne, ma ei arva, et Varoufakis oleks diktaator või ihaldaks diktatuuri, autoritarismi. Pigem on tegemist rumalavõitu ja läbimõtlemata plaaniga.  Minu arvates saab Varoufakis aru euroala probleemidest tehnilisel tasandil vähemasti, talle ei meeldi realistlikud lahendused ja seetõttu on isegi valmis aktsepteerima keskpanga diktatuuri või looma oma sisult fiskaalseid transaktsioone teostava juriidilise keha, mil pole demokraatlikku legitiimsust.

Tavaliselt me oleme harjunud(meil on stereotüübid), et vasakliberaalid seisvad demokraatia eest ja paremkonservatiivid või natsionalistid hoolivad sellest vähem. Euroopas on irooniliselt asjad mõneti vastupidi, vähemasti natsionalistid, või need, keda üldiselt salongikõlbulikeks ei peeta, pigem seisavad rahvusliku demokraatia eest.

Kui pisut liialdada, siis Varoufakis võiks USA-le soovitada: saatke Kongress laiali ja laske tarkadel keskpangas investeerida.

 

 

Varoufakise plaan on minu poolt mitte sõna sõnalt tõgitud, vaid lühikokkuvõte.

 

Russian ruble seen appreciating by third this year

Russian ruble seen appreciating by third this year

(Business New Europe – bne.eu – Ben Aris in Moscow – March 9, 2015)

[Charts here http://www.bne.eu/content/story/russian-ruble-seen-appreciating-third-year]

After crashing in December, Russia’s ruble has made a remarkable comeback since February by rising about 15% against the dollar, making it the best performing currency amongst the 14 in Emerging Europe so far this year, according to Bloomberg. And the appreciation of the ruble is not over, argues Alfa Bank chief economist Natalia Orlova; the ruble could appreciate by as much as a third over the rest of this year if things go well.

You don’t need a PhD in economics to see that the ruble was oversold during its collapse from the mid-50s in November to a low of RUB80 to the dollar in the depths of the panic in December. But it bounced back into the 70s and then 60s very fast………

Ja 100 dollarilist naftat pole vaja enam, et riigieelarvega probleeme ei tekiks  :)

MMT-raha maksude maksmiseks saab tulla vaid valitsuselt

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