No ‘plan B’ for ECB despite still low inflation: Praet

No ‘plan B’ for ECB despite still low inflation: Praet

The European Central Bank’s money-printing plan has so far failed to drive up inflation but the bank does not have an alternative “plan B”, ECB Executive Board member Peter Praet said in a magazine interview published on Wednesday.

Praet said he remained confident that the stimulus would drive up inflation however, adding: “If you print enough money, you always get inflation. Always.”

The ECB eased its policy further last month to combat stubbornly low inflation, cutting its deposit rate deeper into negative territory and extending asset buys by six months until March. [L8N13S1HC]

“I accept that our policy has not yet been successful: inflation in Europe has for a long time been at a very low level of almost zero,” Praet, the ECB’s chief economist, told Belgian weekly magazine Knack.

Praet said various factors, notably low oil prices and less buoyant emerging economies, meant it was taking longer to reach the goal of inflation of close to but below 2 percent.

“We need to be attentive that this shifting horizon does not damage the credibility of the ECB,” he added.

Inflation has missed the ECB’s target of close to but below 2 percent for almost 3 years and it will still take years at best to drive up price growth towards the target, the bank forecast earlier.

Praet said that, despite this shifting horizon, the ECB did not have an alternative to its policy of low interest rates and 1.5 trillion euro asset buying scheme.

“There is no plan B, there is just one plan. The ECB is ready to take all measures necessary to bring inflation up to 2 percent. If you print enough money, you get inflation. Always. If, as is happening now, the prices of oil and commodities are tumbling, then it’s more difficult to drive up inflation,” he said.

“If a whole series of such things happens, then you can only shift the date by which you will achieve higher inflation.”

Praet also said in the interview that the ECB would continue its accommodative stance for as long as required until inflation moved in a sustainable way towards 2 percent.

“If we look at the economic situation, I think that the current policy will certainly be in place until March 2017 and longer if necessary,” he said.

Feel the Bern

Ütleme nii, et Bernie Sanders ja Hillary Clinton saavutasid võrdse tulemuse Iowas.

The Latest: Some Iowa Precincts Resort to Coin Flips

How close was the Iowa race between Hillary Clinton and Bernie Sanders? Democrats flipped coins in some precincts to determine how to award an extra county delegate, a rare but longstanding procedure to break ties.

Party rules call for a coin flip when support for candidates is even but a precinct has an odd number of delegates to award.

The Des Moines Register reports that Clinton won coin tosses at precincts in Davenport and Des Moines.

The newspaper says party officials ordered another coin flip to decide a dispute between the campaigns at an Ames precinct. Clinton won that toss, too.

Iowa Democratic Party spokesman Sam Lau noted that the flips were to determine county convention delegates, which are only fractions of the state delegates awarded to candidates.

Kui kulli ja kirja visatakse, siis antud kontekstis ei ole minu meelest tähtis, et kes võidab.  Bernie on pika tee tulnud ja Hillary tee Valgesse Majja pole sugugi enam nii kindel.

Tingimusteta põhisissetulekust

Euronews kirjutab tingimusteta põhisissetulekust:

A universal income – what it is and how it works

This week UTalk fields a question from Maya in Brussels who asks: “To fight against precarity and social inequality, some suggest the creation of a universal income, also called basic income. What is it about?”

The answer comes from Julien Damon, sociologist and associate professor at Science-Po Paris.

“For me, the term ‘universal income’ is the most common and globally it is also the most explicit. Even if there are different terms as you mentioned it – ‘citizen’s income’, ‘basic income’, ‘unconditional income’ – fundamentally they all defend the same idea: granting everyone an equal amount (= of money).

‘What is important with universal income is the fact that it is unconditional: it is granted by public authorities to everyone without any condition in return, and especially without any condition of work.

‘Though whatever they call it, universal income’s supporters pursue two very different aims: for some, universal income is meant to complete the welfare state system with a basic income, with a kind of floor, of base that everybody can access.

‘On the contrary, others want to totally transform the existing welfare state system into a very simple system, an empowering system where everyone gets an income but in exchange have to deal on their own with health insurance and pension issues for example.

‘Thousands of questions still have to be answered such as: to what geographical extent universal income should be implemented? Today cities – in the Netherlands and in the US for instance – want to put it in place; some countries as well, such as Finland.

‘Another question is: how to finance a universal income? The main source of financing could be to increase taxes such as income taxes, corporate taxes as well as taxes on donation and inheritance.”

If you would also like to ask a question on Utalk, click on the button below.

Basic income in Finland

Former UTalk on basic income

Nad esitavad finantseerimise kohta vale küsimuse. Need maksed tuleb poliitiliselt heaks kiita, see on kogu finantseerimine, mida vaja teha oleks. Maksud on liigse nõudluse ja inflatsiooni ära hoidmiseks antud kontekstis. Kas on võimalik, et liiga paljud inimesed hakkavad elama töötamata ja kõrged maksud neile, kes töötavad, võtavad neilt motivatsiooni pingutamiseks ja töötamiseks ning kogu süsteem võib kollapsida? Minu meelest on see võimalik ja isegi väga tõenäoline. Aga minu arvates on kõige parem mõelda sellele just sarnaselt MMT tööprogrammile, et teatud hulk inimesi töötab valitsuse tööprogrammis, kus inimeste hulk kasvab, kui majandus kokku kuivab ja kahaneb krediidi ekspansiooni tsükli ajal (vastavalt sellele ka valitsuse defitsiit vastupidiselt inimeste hulgale selles programmis).

Turud on keskpangad nurka surunud

Äripäev

Turud on keskpangad nurka surunud

Keskpankurid arvasid, et asjad saavad korda ja nad saavad areenilt lahkuda. Just siis muutus aga olukord keeruliseks, kirjutab Bloomberg….

Turud ei ole keskpankasid rohkem nurka surunud, kui viimased on seal alati olnud. Rahatrükk ei tööta. See töötab ainult nii, et turud hakkavad spekuleerima, sest usuvad, et see töötab. Majanduses napib nõudlust ja vaja on fiskaali.

Establishment (neo)liberaalid on närvilised

Ma ei tea, kas Bernie Sandersist saab president, aga olen veendunud, et ta võtab Iowa ja New Hampshire’i. Bernie Sandersi oponent number 1 ei ole Donald Trump, vaid establishment vasakpoolne libearaal Hillary Clinton. Hillary Clinton representeerib ka meie vasakliberaale. Ma ei hakka siin nimesid ette lugema, aga te kõik teate neid.

Liberals No Longer Amused by Bernie Sanders’ Presidential Campaign

Ma ei ole kõigega nõus, mis ta majandusest räägib, aga see oleks suur võit MMT-le, kui Bernie Sanders saaks USA presidendiks.

Hei vasakpoolsed,

mul on teile lugemissoovitus:

Goldman Sachs backs campaign to keep Britain in European Union

Growing City concern about Britain’s possible exit from the European Union has been underlined by the fact that the Wall Street firm Goldman Sachs had pumped a significant sum into the campaign for staying in.

The move on Wednesday by the high profile US investment bank to back the in campaign – Britain Stronger in Europe – comes at a time when the City has started to focus on the possibility that the UK will vote to end its 42-year relationship with the EU.

Other City firms are known to be spending large sums of money considering the implications for their business of a possible Brexit, even though the date for a referendum has not yet been set……

Investeerimimanedžer James Montier

Kaabukergitus Tiit2-e

Investeerimismanedžer James Montier GMO-st kirjutab nii:

Executive Summary

In the context of the role that debts and deficits play in overall economic policy, in this paper I focus on the philosophy known as “sound finance,” which includes adherents who believe that governments should seek to balance their budgets. I, however, take a different view, and believe that the role of government when dealing with budget deficits should be one of “functional finance,” which ensures that the policies implemented help to reach the overarching goals of macroeconomic policy (generally held to be full employment and price stability). This paper attempts to show why the proponents of sound finance are mistaken by defining and unpacking a series of “myths” that are foundational to, or at least helpful to, convincing us that sound finance requires that governments run a balanced budget. Though not a complete list, following are the “myths” presented:

Myth 1: Governments are like households

Myth 2: Printing money to finance budget deficits is inflationary

Myth 3: Budget deficits/high debt lead to high interest rates

Myth 4: Budget deficits are unsustainable

Myth 5: Debt is a burden on future generations

GMO kohta võid siit lugeda:

About GMO

Founded in 1977, GMO is a private partnership whose sole business is investment management.


GMO proudly serves some of the most prestigious and sophisticated investors globally, focused on providing them with great investment results. We also work hard to partner with our clients by listening to them, answering their questions objectively, offering our insights proactively, finding ways in which we can add value for them, and following through on our commitments.

Our client base is comprised primarily of institutions, including corporate and public defined benefit and defined contribution retirement plans, endowments, foundations, and financial intermediaries……

Global Economic Gloom: Major Companies Announce Job Cuts across Europe

Global Economic Gloom: Major Companies Announce Job Cuts across Europe

Last Wednesday, US multinational General Electric (GE) announced plans to cut 6,500 jobs in Europe over the next two years, including 1,700 jobs in Germany, 570 in the UK, 765 in France and 1,300 in Switzerland. According to comments from the head of GE’s power division last September, this is part of a plan to squeeze out $3 billion in cost savings over five years…..

Hispaania taganes eelarvetõotustest

Hispaania taganes eelarvetõotustest

Hispaania rahanduse eest vastutav majandusminister Luis de Guindos võttis tagasi oma lubaduse täita Euroopa Liidus kehtivaid eelarvetingimusi, kuna majanduskasvu kindlustamine olevat tähtsam.

Nagu selgitas de Guindos, viiks muretsemine paari protsendipunkti lisandumise pärast 2015. aastaks seatud 4,2 protsendi eesmärgile valitsuse tähelepanu kõrvale peamiselt väljakutselt, milleks on majanduse taastumise kaitsmine.

«Tähtis on pigem säilitada Hispaania majanduskasvu tempo,» vahendab Bloomberg Business ministri sõnu eilse eurogrupi koosoleku eel.

«Suurim risk eelarvepoliitikale on see, et Hispaania majandus aeglustub,» lisas de Guindos.

Oma suhtumisega võib Hispaania ärritada Euroopa Komisjoni, mis on alates oktoobrist hoiatanud, et peaministri Mariano Rajoy poolt hiljutiste üldvalimiste eel läbisurutud kulutuste kava ei arvestanud piisavalt eelarvepuudujäägiga, mis on euroala suurim.

Eurogrupi juht Jeroen Dijsselbloem, kelle ametikohta seesama de Guindos mullu edutult endale napsata üritas, hoiatas jaanuari alguses, et Hispaaniale eelarvega rohkem paindlikkust enam ei võimaldata…..

 

Slick

Tead millised mõtted mul tekkisid seda Chelsea Clintoni videot vaadates? Ta ajab tahtlikult jama Bernie Sandersi kohta. Ta on elitaarsest vasakpoolsest perekonnast. Ju ta arvab, et massid on lollid ja tema on neist targem ning suudab nad ära lollitada. See on elitism, mida Clintonid promovad. Nad ei ole ei vasak- ega parempoolsed. Mina valiksin enne Trumpi kui Clintoneid, sest Trump võib küll loll olla, aga ta ei ole vähemalt slick.  See slick meenus mul ühe Bill Clintoni intervjuuga seoses, mida aastaid tagasi nägin. Tema käest küsiti, et milline hüüdnimi talle on kunagi pandud, mis talle kohe üldse ei meeldi, sest see tema arvates teda ei iseloomusta. Clinton ütles: Slick. Ta ütles, et ta on kõike muud, aga mitte slick. Kurat, kogu see Clintonite dünastia on minu meelest slick ja see oli väga tabav hüüdnimi ka Billi kohta. 

Jooksevkonto ülejääk jätkas novembris kasvu

Jooksevkonto ülejääk jätkas novembris kasvu

Eesti Panga kiirhinnangu põhjal oli Eesti maksebilansi jooksevkonto ülejääk mullu novembris 42 miljonit eurot. Septembris nullini vähenenud ülejääk hakkavs taas kasvama oktoobris…..

Ainus viis mitte Kreeka olukorda sattuda euroga jätkates on see, kui meie jooksevkonto on ülejäägis. Muidugi me oleme netosaajad EL-i eelarvest, ilma selleta oleksime defitsiidis.

Kreeka kreeditoridele: meie taktikaline taganemine on möödas

draghi laughingKreeka kreeditoridele: meie taktikaline taganemine on möödas

Kreeka valitsuses võtmetähtsusega tööminister Georgios Katrougalos esitas eile värske väljakutse rahvusvahelistele kreeditoridele, kes peaksid loobuma edasistest kasinusnõuetest ning lubama Kreekal saavutada oma eelarvelised eesmärgid majanduskasvu stimuleerimise abil.

Küll teie taktikaline taganemine jälle algab, kui teie pangandussüsteem kinni pannakse.

Hillary Clinton’s Lead Over Sanders Nearly Vanishes

Hillary Clinton’s Lead Over Sanders Nearly Vanishes

With just 21 days until the presidential primaries officially begin in Iowa, Hillary Clinton’s support among Democrats nationally has taken a serious tumble, falling eight points to 43%, according to the latest IBD/TIPP Poll. Support for her chief rival, Bernie Sanders, climbed six points to 39%.

As a result, Clinton’s lead over Sanders, which had been 18 points, is now just 4 points.

Other polls have shown the race tightening in Iowa, which holds its caucuses on Feb. 1, and New Hampshire, which has its primary eight days later. Two recent New Hampshire surveys have Sanders in the lead, and the latest NBC poll in Iowa has Sanders just three points behind Clinton.

But the IBD/TIPP Poll is the first to show the race significantly tightening nationwide……

Bloomberg mainib MMT-d

Why Bernie Sanders Doesn’t Want Your Vote

….When he became the ranking minority member of the Senate Budget Committee last year, he hired Stephanie Kelton as the Democratic Party’s chief economist on the committee. Kelton espouses Modern Monetary Theory, a branch of economics so far left that it rejects Keynesianism and holds that government surpluses are disastrous….

Bloomberg iseloomustab MMT-d valesti. Valitsuse defitsiidid ei ole iseenesest vasak- ega parempoolsed. Kui MMT-d kasutaksid paremäärmuslased, kas siis oleks MMT paremäärmuslik teooria? Aga praegune narratiiv on selline: Bernie Sanders on vasakradikaal, järelikult on MMT vasakradikaalne (Bernie Sanders muidugi ei ole vasakradikaal).

Aeg on selline

Bill Mitchell kirjutab hästi:

Democracy in Europe requires Eurozone breakup

On December 21, 2015, there was an article on the Social Europe portal – A New Plan for Greece And Europe: A Defining Moment For European Social Democracy – which I found interesting, though very incomplete, given its title. In fact, the ‘New Plan’ is really a series of fairly general statements, which at times, are somewhat inconsistent if you extend them into the necessary detail that they imply. For example, one of their key observations is that within the European Union there is a “wide and growing gap between national control over budgets that people have voted for and the post-national governance imposed on them”. Which would suggest that the solution requires that there is an aligning of the fiscal responsibility and control at the level of the currency-issuing unit. However, there is no hint of that in their ‘Plan’. They talk about an “Enhanced respect for the fiscal sovereignty of Greece” but fail to articulate how that can occur within the common currency when the Greek government has no currency-issuing capacity. Of course, if we want to increase the fiscal sovereignty of any Eurozone nation, then the only sustainable way of doing that is for that nation to re-establish its own currency and exit the monetary union. However, this would appear contrary to their “pan-European” sentiments, which dominate their overall vision. In short, once again the bogey person of the pan-European appears to be taken as a given and then specific matters that might appear inconsistent with that old ‘social democratic’ obsession in Europe are glossed over.

Let’s be frank: there will never be a functional European-level federation where the fiscal responsibility coincides with the currency-issuing capacity of the single central bank and which seeks its policy mandate in broad elections with universal suffrage.

If there could be such a organisation, then the common currency could clearly work despite the differences in economic structure of the Eurozone Member States…….

Muidugi ei tule sellist föderatsiooni. Võib olla pisut kohatu võrdlus, aga teatav sarnasus 80-date alguse ENSV-ga on minu meelest. Ei olnud veel IME-st rääkijaid ega iseseisvast Eestist pajatajaid. Vaevalt, et kedagi enam vangi siis selle eest pandi.  Arvan, et praegu satuksid eurost loobumisest rääkijad avalikkuse surve alla, kaotaksid kiiresti toetuse ja peaksid poliitikast lahkuma. Aeg ei tundu veel küps olevat.

Kui võrdlevat momenti tekitada, siis Tsipras käis Moskvas rääkimas ja oma liiduvabariigile paremaid majandustingimusi kauplemas. Liidust väljaastumine oli veel tabuteema. Tsipras ja Varoufakis kinnitasid, et neil ei ole kavatsust sotsialistlikult teelt kõrvale astuda ning nad jätkavad partei eeskujul Lenini ideede elluviimist.  See on retoorika, isegi Arnold Rüütel kasutas umbes taolist retoorikat omal ajal ja me ei heida seda talle ette.  Kunagi vaatame ehk tagasi ja ütleme: aeg oli selline…..

Edward Lucase kolumn: Euroopa impeerium on meie silme ees kuju võtmas

Edward Lucase kolumn: Euroopa impeerium on meie silme ees kuju võtmas

….Need impeeriumi elemendid olid põhjalikult kavandatud, ülejäänu kohta ei saa sama öelda. Eurotsoon, mis rajati soovmõtlemisele, on nüüd muutumas riigiks – Euroland –, mida iseloomustavad sekkuv keskpank, päästefond, jõustatavad eelarvereeglid (küsige kreeklastelt) ja ühine pangandusjärelevalve süsteem. Algselt ei nähtud ette neist ühtegi (vastasel juhul oleksid valijad võinud kogu ideele veto panna).

Eurolandi loomisraskused

Euroala võib endiselt laguneda, ent praegu on võimalik näha, kuidas see võiks toimima hakata. Ettenähtavas tulevikus lõikavad Saksamaa ja teised Põhja-Euroopa eksportijad kasu kunstlikult madalast vahetuskursist. Nad kompenseerivad seda finantstoetusega Lõuna-Euroopa riikidele, kes üritavad konkurentsivõime taastamiseks oma majandusi reformida. Jätkuvalt läheb vaja lisaelemente – võlakustutust ja ELi eelarveülekandeid –, ent euroala valitsemise kontuurid on selged…..

Job Guarantee Versus Basic Income Guarantee

Job Guarantee Versus Basic Income Guarantee

…..The experiment was the Speenhamland system, which was implemented in England 1795 and dismantled in 1834, was intended to make sure that country laborers had enough income to live. It was intended as an emergency measure to help the poor when grain prices had risen sharply due to meager harvests. The justices of Berkshire decided to offer income support to supplement wages, with the amount set in relation to the price of bread and the number of children in the household, so that the destitute would have a minimum income no matter what they earned.

Even though it was never codified as law, the Speenhamland approach was adopted in country towns all across England and in a weaker form in some factory towns. It was widely seen as a “right to live.” It was neither universal nor consistently implemented, but it nevertheless appears to have been fairly widespread. It reached its peak during the Napoleonic Wars, and was wound down in many small towns before it was effectively abolished by the new Poor Law of 1834. Not surprisingly, the Speenhamland system existed in its strongest and most durable embodiment in areas where the threat of violence by the impoverished was real. But another reason it lasted as long as it did despite the costs it imposed on local landlords was it kept the poor in place with their wages fixed at a bare subsistence level. Rural property owners wanted to keep workers from decamping to towns and cities in search of better paid employment. A smaller pool of local laborers would lead to higher wage levels.

Karl Polanyi explains how a well-indended program over time proved damaging to the very group it was intended to help. And it is critical to keep in mind that Polanyi is acutely aware of how treating labor and land as commodities is at odds with the needs of society……

Pavlina räägib väga hästi töö garantiist ja tingimusteta sissetuleku garantiist.

Kui tingimusteta põhisissetulekut rakendada nö täie rauaga, et inimesed elavad ära selle sissetuleku eest ega pea töötama, siis see viib mitmete probleemideni minu arvates. See muutub kiiresti inflatsiooniliseks, kus raha antakse “mitte millegi eest” inimestele.

Sellised jutud ei ole pädevad, et meie tootlikkus on juba piisavalt kõrge ja võiksimegi vähem töötada. Töönädalat saab lühendada sellisel juhul.  Soome plaanitav versioon sellest viib firmade subsideerimiseni. Samuti ei ole see  “helikopteri raha”.  See on halb idee ja põhiliselt pušivad seda mitte-majandusinimesed.

Mis puudutab väljaandeid nagu Jacobin, siis see on kapitalismi vastane ja nende eesmärk võibki olla süsteemi lammutamine.

Kyle Bass Suffers “Worst Year In The Last Ten”, Reveals His Best Investment For The Next “3-5 Years”

Kyle Bass Suffers “Worst Year In The Last Ten”, Reveals His Best Investment For The Next “3-5 Years”

…..One person who admits their “dogmatic views” cost them dearly, was Hayman Capital’s Kyle Bass, who in an interview to be aired tomorrow on Wall Street Week, says that “this has been one of the worst years in the last ten.”….

Isegi pime kana võib tera leida, üldiselt oleks vist targem lapi tarkadest eemale hoida. Siin on mõned postitused temast.

Kyle Bass: Fallacies Such As MMT Are “Leading The Sheep To Slaughter” And “We Believe War Is Inevitable”

Kyle Bass On The End Of The Debt Super-Cycle

Kyle Bass On The Federal Budget: “I Don’t Know How To Fix This”

Kyle Bass On Rehypothecation And Other Keynesian Endgame Scenarios

 

German Commissioner Oettinger voices fears of EU ‘collapse’

German Commissioner Oettinger voices fears of EU ‘collapse’

(BERLIN) – Germany’s EU Commissioner Guenther Oettinger Wednesday voiced fears the European Union could fall apart under the pressure of rising populism.

“The EU has learnt to overcome crises. But the number of unstable or populist governments is rising. That makes me worried,” said Oettinger, a member of Chancellor Angela Merkel’s Christian Democratic Union.

“I see for the first time a real danger that the EU could collapse,” the EU’s digital commissioner warned, without specifying which countries he was most worried about.

The EU has been battered by a litany of challenges this year, with a bad-tempered row over how to handle the Greek debt crisis, and a record migrant influx splitting opinion across the bloc.

While Germany is taking in around a million asylum seekers this year, several eastern European nations including Hungary want to keep refugees out.

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