Varoufakis on tüüpiline vasakpoolne totu

YANIS VAROUFAKIS: Trump is risking a US debt crisis with ‘skyrocketing deficits’

“My great concern with Donald Trump is that his economic pronouncements don’t square up,” Varoufakis said in an interview with Bloomberg TV’s Guy Johnson.

Varoufakis said Trump’s proposed $1 trillion (£830 billion) government spending plan “is unfunded and will lead to skyrocketing deficits if he succeeds with all the tax cuts he wants to push through.”

At the same time, diplomatic tensions could lead China to sell its holdings of US Treasurys, pushing up bond yields and making it more expensive for Trump to fund the plan by borrowing on the international capital market.

It’s a sequence that echoes the European debt crisis, which started in 2010 when investors lost confidence in the ability of Greece and other southern European countries to fund government spending and pay back their national debt. That led to higher government borrowing costs, a series of banking crises, and sharp cuts in spending and economic growth.

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Real Progressives LIVE with L Randall Wray – MMT and Debunking AMI: Positive Money

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Ted Malloch: The US view of European integration

Ted Malloch: The US view of European integration

Exclusive: President Trump’s new administration has made it clear that the US is no longer interested in the EU’s integrationist ‘ever closer union’, writes Ted Malloch, the man tipped to be next US ambassador to the EU.

 

….US interests are further undermined by the EU’s many inherent internal contradictions – social, economic, and politically which undermine US beliefs and interests.

Chief among them are the Euro, a flawed common currency. The Euro offers little insulation from economic shocks and relies on fiscal transfers at the EU level to iron out economic imbalances. These are many. This equates to papering over cracks in the EU’s component economies.

It has also, as demonstrated by former World Bank, chief economist, Joseph Stieglitz, (see: The Euro and Its Threat to Europe) tilted the tables toward the benefit of Germany. Germany’s current account surplus is a huge eight per cent of GDP, which imposes a deflationary bias on the entire Eurozone.

The basic fallacy of the neo-functionalist philosophy underlying the EU is the assumption that political integration can be achieved through economic integration. This is a mistaken assumption further aggravated by the forced pace of such integration.

The cure to Europe’s calamity is genuine democracy – government by the people not by unelected bureaucrats parading as experts. Members of the European Commission are not elected and are unaccountable to any parliament. Such a globalist elite and its attendant super structure is detached from the people and therefore entirely anti-European…..

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EU In Disintegration Mode

by Armstrong Economics

EU In Disintegration Mode

The EU leadership is really trying to make Great Britain pay dearly for voting to exit the Community. Like the socialists in America, it’s our way or no way. The left may call the right the “deplorables” but the left are the “intolerables” who refuse to ever consider they might be wrong.

The EU thinks that if they can make it so bad for Britain, nobody else will leave. They refuse to examine why there is rising discontent within Europe. They refuse to let go of this dream of a federalized Europe to eradicate national identities along with sovereign rights…..

…..The EU leaders have nothing to say about the criticisms. They have no clear statement to challenge what is going on. The regulatory nightmare and outright rage that is rising among the people is simply ignored by Brussels. The legal uncertainty with the British exit on the banking system is something nobody even wants to speculate about. How do bail-ins work in Europe if abandoned in Britain? So while the EU thinks by punishing Britain they will discourage others from leaving, they are seriously mistaken. The dream of the EU is dead. It should have remained just a trade union – that was it…..

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Costas Lapavitsas speech at the Euro PlanB conference “Alternatives to the Europe of austerity”

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Why governments should run deficits

by Lars Syll

Why governments should run deficits

Lynn Parramore: Do you think there are lessons in what has happened in the Eurozone for students of economics and the way the subject is taught?

darling-let-s-get-deeply-into-debtMario Seccareccia: Yes, indeed. Ever since the establishment of the modern nation-state in the late eighteenth and nineteenth centuries, the creation of the euro was perhaps the first significant experiment in modern times in which there was an attempt to separate money from the state, that is, to denationalize currency, as some right-wing ideologues and founders of modern neoliberalism, such as Friedrich von Hayek, had defended. What the Eurozone crisis teaches is that this perception of how the monetary system works is quite wrong, because, in times of crisis, the democratic state must be able to spend money in order to meet its obligations to its citizens. The denationalization or “supra-nationalization” of money with the establishment that happened in the Eurozone took away from elected national governments the capacity to meaningfully manage their economies. Unless governments in the Eurozone are able to renegotiate a significant control and access money from their own central banks, the system will be continually plagued with crisis and will probably collapse in the longer term.

Lynn Parramore

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These people are not capable of launching a revolution, nor would they want to see the consequences.

Antifa

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Marine Le Pen (future is female :) )

This poll shows why Marine Le Pen stands a very good chance of winning the French election

Ma olen kuulanud Marine Le Peni euro teemal kriitiliselt rääkimas ja kirjutaksin ise alla sellele jutule. Mis puudutab väiteid, et partei on paremäärmuslik, siis see on seotud eelkõige minevikuga ja tema isaga selles parteis.  Ma ütleksin, et Rahvuslikust Rindest on saamas/saanud mõõdukalt rahvuslik partei täna ja seda tänu Marine Le Pen’ile. Äärmuslasteks, rassistideks ja natsideks, kes maailma õhku lasevad, neid minu meelest nimetada ei saa. Samuti ei ole Le Pen mingi fanaatik, kes piirid sulgeks ja ülejäänud maailmaga mingit tegemist ei teeks. Muidugi euromeelsed kujutavad teda äärmusliku natsionalistina. Le Pen ütleb minu meelest õigesti, et poliitikas ei võitle parempoolsed vasakpoolsete vastu, vaid globalistid patriootide vastu. Loodan, et Le Pen saab Prantsusmaa presidendiks ja eurole tehakse lõpp. Kuidagi ratsionaalselt arutledes või poliitilisi debatte pidades selle tulemuseni ei jõua.

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Kas pole irooniline?

“There’s A Global Riot Against Psuedo-Experts” Nassim Taleb Exclaims “This Is Not About Fascism”

Nassim Taleb räägib pseudoekspertidest, aga ta ise kuulub nende hulka. MMT fännid peaksid seda mäletama:

Nassim Taleb: “Every single human should short U.S. Treasury bonds”

 

Nassim Nicholas Taleb: Short US Treasury Bonds

Nassim Nicholas Taleb advised shorting US Treasury bonds will decline. It’s ‘a no brainer’ to sell short Treasuries, Taleb said at a conference in Moscow today. ‘Every single human being should have that trade.’

‘Deficits are like dynamite in the hands of children,’ Taleb said in an interview with Bloomberg Television. ‘They can get out of control very quickly.’ Taleb thinks that we are worse than we were in 2009, ‘The problem we have in the United States, the level of debt is still very high and being converted to government debt. We are worse-off today than we were last year, in the United States and in Europe you have fewer people employed and a larger amount of debt.’

Nassim Taleb warned that democracies may even face some challenges in the near future, ‘democracies can’t handle austerity measures very well,’ Taleb added. ‘We are going to have a severe problem.’

 

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MMT ja Jaapani võlakirjaturg

More fun in Japanese bond markets

The Japanese bond market has been very interesting in the last week proving yet again that private bond markets cannot set yields on government bonds if the government does want then too. Next time you hear some mainstream economist claiming a currency issuing government is running deficits at the will of the investors (read bond markets) politely tell them they are clueless. Japanese once again provides the real world Modern Monetary Theory (MMT) laboratory – every day it substantiates the underlying insights contained within MMT and refutes the core mainstream propositions. The financial media referred to the Bank of Japan as putting a whipsaw to the bond markets, which in context means that the BoJ is forcing the ‘markets’ into confusion (Source). The bond markets have misinterpreted recent Bank of Japan conduct in the JGB markets (less purchases than expected, and even missing a scheduled buy up) as a sign that the Bank was weakening on its QQE commitment from last September that it would hold the 10-year JGB yield to zero and thereby allow the longer investment rates to fall. Why they doubted that commitment is another matter but within a few days over the last week the Bank demonstrated that: (a) it remains committed to that target; and (b) it has all the financial clout it needs to enforce it; and (c) the bond market investors do not call the shots.

Ma saan muidugi aru, miks MMT võib mitte meeldida. Praegu prevaleeriv on selline moraali mäng, et valitsus peaks õnnelik olema, et ma talle raha laenasin. MMT: valitsus teeb sulle teene intressi makstes.

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Rabble rouser who could be the next nail in EU’s coffin: Geert Wilders is the virulently anti-Islam Dutch politician

Rabble rouser who could be the next nail in EU’s coffin: Geert Wilders is the virulently anti-Islam Dutch politician

…Even a senior policeman told me the other day that 60 per cent of his officers will vote for the Freedom Party. They are not racists. They know what it’s like in the real world working with the day-to-day consequences of open borders and uncontrolled immigration.

The white political elite, who defend a multicultural Holland, have no idea what’s going on…..

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Itaalia…. vaikus enne tormi

Kui Itaaliat vaadata, siis võiks öelda, et see on vaikus enne tormi. Euroskeptikud võtavad varsti üle Itaalia. Ainus, mis praegu puudu on, on ennetähtaegsed valimised.

Lähiminevikus oli Itaalias referendum, mis kukkus läbi ja Renzi astus tagasi. Mille üle see referendum täpselt oli, ei ole siinkohal isegi mitte väga tähtis. Itaalia president Sergio Matarella määras peaministriks  Paolo Gentiloni. President teatas siis, et enne ei korralda ennetähtaegseid valimisi, kui erimeelsused kohtade jaotuse osas alamkojas lahenevad. Neil on kahekojaline parlament Itaalias.              A SHORT GUIDE TO THEITALIAN POLITICAL SYSTEM

See küsimus on lahenduse leidnud tänaseks. Renzi tahab valimisi juunis, Beppe Grillo nii kiiresti kui võimalik. Renzi paistab kartvat, et tema partei hülgab ta. Berlusconi mõisteti süüdi maksupettuses ja tema peaministriks kandideerida ei saa kuni 2018, tema ei taha ennetähtaegseid valimisi. Beppe Grillo loodab võita, kuigi ta ise ei kavatse peaministriks saada.

Beppe Grillo: “The Amateurs Are Conquering The World Because The ‘Experts’ Destroyed It”

Korrapärased valimised peaksid Itaalias toimuma 2018. Nüüd on asi presidendis, surve ennetähtaegseteks valimisteks on olemas.

Opinion polling for the next Italian general election

Renzi partei ei ole väga ühtne ja kuulda on, et üks osa on vastu ennetähtaegsetele valimistele. Asi ei ole minu meelest isegi mitte ennetähtaegsetes valimistes. Tundub, et Grillot nad ei peata. Itaalia establishment ei ole ka väga ühtne. Jutud, et keegi ei tee viietähtedega koostööd, paistavad ka üha rohkem muinasjuttudena.

Muidugi ei tähenda see kõik, et automaatselt eurost loobumine tuleks vms. Rahvas võib referendumil euro poolt olla jne.

 

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Trump….

 

Mitte ükski poliitik peale Trumpi ei oleks midagi niisugust julgenud ette võtta.

https://ftalphaville-cdn.ft.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/02/02104940/McHenry-letter-to-Yellen.pdf

I am writing regarding the Federal Reserve’s continued participation in international forums on financial regulation. Despite the clear message delivered by President Donald Trump in prioritizing America’s interest in international negotiations, it appears that the Federal Reserve continues negotiating international regulatory standards for financial institutions among global bureaucrats in foreign lands without transparency, accountability, or the authority to do so.

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Varoufakis: kuberneriks hakkan ma

Mul meenub seoses Varoufakisega multifilm lapsepõlvest. Seal oli Ivan, kes istus ahju otsas ja teatas, et tema hakkab kuberneriks. Varoufakis räägib üsna õigesti, et mis euro või praeguse EL.i probleem on. Aga tema lahendus on selline, et tuleb New Deal programm käivitada Euroopas ja ilma föderatsioonita, kuigi föderatsiooniga oleks ikka parem nagu küll, aga seda kahjuks pole. Edasi palju ilusat udu rohelisest energiast  jne    🙂   Ei taha tema fänne solvata, aga “not my cup of tea”. Midagi “on ära” neil vasakpoolsetel unistajatel minu jaoks.

A New Deal to Save Europe

…Unlike Franklin Delano Roosevelt’s original New Deal in the 1930s, a European New Deal must be realized without the tools of a functioning federation, relying instead on the EU’s existing institutions. Otherwise, Europe’s disintegration will accelerate, leaving nothing in its wake to federate.

The European New Deal should include five precise goals and the means to achieve them under existing EU treaties, without any centralization of power in Brussels or further loss of sovereignty:

· Large-scale green investment will be funded by a partnership between Europe’s public investment banks (the European Investment Bank, KfW, and others) and central banks….

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EU will have a wonderful future…..

When will the EU and the ECB Stop Torturing the Greeks?

The troika refers to the European Union (EU), European Central Bank (ECB), and the International Monetary Fund (IMF).  The IMF, traditionally, was the greatest proponent of any international entity of inflicting extreme austerity on nations suffering economic crises.  The IMF’s economists have increasingly reviewed the evidence and concluded that austerity reduces growth and that putting nations into inescapable debt traps is stupid and harmful.  The EU and the ECB, however, have been impervious to these economic studies and intent on hammering the Greeks.  The purported EU “bailout” of Greece is an exercise in EU propaganda.  Overwhelmingly, EU aid involving Greece goes to Greek banks – and the bank bailout bails out the creditors of Greek banks.  Those creditors, overwhelmingly, are EU banks…..

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Valdkonnast “rumal kriitika”

Printing more money isn’t the answer to all economic ills

Et jälle hakatakse enda ehitatud hernehirmutist tampima.

….Modern monetary theory, a term coined by Australian economist Bill Mitchell, says the following: (1) Countries that control their own currency cannot default on sovereign obligations because they can always print more money. (2) Thus, said countries can provide unlimited resources, pay for whatever they want, and create full employment. Nirvana, here we come!…

+ on jutt võhiklik, aga selline on ka põhiliselt leviv kriitika MMT aadressil.

 

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Tingimusteta põhisissetulekust

Replacing Social Security and other programs with UBI is giving up the farm for the utopian garden that will bear no fruit.

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State of the Union Message to Congress January 11, 1944

Franklin D. Roosevelt 

4 – State of the Union Message to Congress
January 11, 1944

…We have come to a clear realization of the fact that true individual freedom cannot exist without economic security and independence. “Necessitous men are not free men.” People who are hungry and out of a job are the stuff of which dictatorships are made.

In our day these economic truths have become accepted as self-evident. We have accepted, so to speak, a second Bill of Rights under which a new basis of security and prosperity can be established for all regardless of station, race, or creed.

Among these are:

The right to a useful and remunerative job in the industries or shops or farms or mines of the Nation;

The right to earn enough to provide adequate food and clothing and recreation;

The right of every farmer to raise and sell his products at a return which will give him and his family a decent living;

The right of every businessman, large and small, to trade in an atmosphere of freedom from unfair competition and domination by monopolies at home or abroad;

The right of every family to a decent home;

The right to adequate medical care and the opportunity to achieve and enjoy good health;

The right to adequate protection from the economic fears of old age, sickness, accident, and unemployment;

The right to a good education.

All of these rights spell security. And after this war is won we must be prepared to move forward, in the implementation of these rights, to new goals of human happiness and well-being….

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Vastik natsiriik

Väike, loll ja fašistlik Island näitab suurtele ja tarkadele teed. Island loobus euro taevamannast ja ei saanud aru, et mitte mingit alternatiivi pole neoliberaalsele globaliseerumisele. Island on vastik natsiriik, mis mõtleb vaid iseendale ja üldse mitte internatsionaalile.

Icelandic economy continues to boom: GDP grew by 10.2% in third quarter of 2016

Unemployment only 2.7%, continues to fall, labour participation continues to rise

Unemployment continues to drop in Iceland. Unemployment in October hit a record low of only 2.7% according to Statistics Iceland, a 1.1% drop year-over-year. In October 2015 unemployment was 3.8%, and 5% in 2014…

Meenuvad targa eksperdi Siim Kallase sõnad, et mingit vahet pole, milline valuutaühik Kreekas on, Kreekal olevat ikkagi samad probleemid lahendada. Liberaalne eliit on ideeliselt pankrotis, sellepärast kobab valija nüüd konservatiive. Majandusekspertidest nagu Siim Kallas ja Hardo Pajula on kahjuks vähem tolku kui kõige suurematest populistidest, kellel ka ei pruugi muidugi ideid olla.

Ühtlasi on peldikus ka nende argumendid, kes väidavad, et väikeriigil polegi midagi teha. Island on rahvaarvult ligi neli korda väiksem kui Eesti. Kehtestas kapitalikontrollid!  Selline majandusvabaduse piiramine pidi ju katastroofiga lõppema?

 

 

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If this doesn’t make you deeply question the state of economics then I don’t know what will….

If this doesn’t make you deeply question the state of economics then I don’t know what will….

“But as the economy recovers, banks should find more opportunities to lend out their reserves.”

   –  Ben Bernanke, Former Fed Chairman, 2009

“Commercial banks are required to hold reserves equal to a share of their checkable deposits. Since reserves in excess of the required amount did not earn any interest from the Fed before 2008, commercial banks had an incentive to lend to households and businesses until the resulting growth of deposits used up all of those excess reserves.”

   – Martin Feldstein, Harvard Economics Professor, 2013

– “[The Fed knows] that if there is an opportunity cost from these massive reserves they’ve injected into the system, we are going to have a hyperinflation.”

   – Nobel Prize Winner Eugene Fama on why the Fed is paying interest on Reserves, 2012

“the Fed is paying the banks interest not to lend out the money, but to hold it within the Fed in what are called excess reserves.”

   – Laurence Kotlikoff, Boston University Economics Professor, 2013

“Notice that “excess reserves” are historically very close to zero. This reflects the tendency (assumed in textbook discussions of “open market operations”) for commercial banks to quickly lend out any reserves they have, over and above their legally required minimum.”

   –  Robert Murphy, Mises Institute, 2011

“In normal times, banks don’t want excess reserves, which yield them no profit. So they quickly lend out any idle funds they receive. “

   –  Alan Blinder, Princeton University Economics Professor, 2009

“given sufficient time, [banks] will make enough new loans until they are once again reserve constrained. The expansion of money, given an increase in the monetary base, is inevitable, and will ultimately result in higher inflation and interest rates.”

   –  Art Laffer, Former Reagan Economic Advisor, 2009

“First of all, any individual bank does, in fact, have to lend out the money it receives in deposits. Bank loan officers can’t just issue checks out of thin air”

   –  Paul Krugman, Nobel Prize Winner & Princeton University Economics Professor, 2012

“Ohanian points out that the Fed has done a lot already, having increased bank reserves from $40 billion to $900 billion. But this liquidity injection was not what it seems — indeed, if it was, we’d now have hyperinflation. In reality, the Fed completely neutralized the injection by starting a new policy of paying interest on reserves, causing banks to simply hoard these “excess reserves,” instead of lending them out. The money never made it out into the economy, so it did not stimulate demand.”

  –  Scott Sumner, 2009

This isn’t some minor flaw in the model. It’s the equivalent of our foremost experts in automobiles thinking that, if we pour gasoline into cup holders, that this will allow our cars to move forward. If this doesn’t make you deeply question the state of economics then I don’t know what will….

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Head uut aastat

Marshall Auerback Retweeted Alex Leo

Not the Trump crazies who are the real cause for concern. It’s the “reasonable” deficit fetishists, who are the source of most bad ideas

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Trump nimetab Ichani oma erinõunikuks

Trump names Icahn as special adviser

 

Ichan on defitsiitse kuulutamise pooldaja. Siin on kevadine artikkel.

Icahn: Republicans don’t understand economics and it’s killing the country

“The Republican Party that I used to be more sympathetic with — I’m right in the middle now, although as you know I’m for Trump — but what I would say is Congress is in this massive gridlock,” he said, explaining that the Republican-controlled body is “obsessed with this deficit to a point that I think it’s almost pathological.”

The result of this gridlock and a lack of fiscal stimulus has been that the Federal Reserve has been forced to keep interest rates low, and that has created “tremendous bubbles” and “the wealth gap.”

Ma näen jätkuvalt Trumpi valimisvõitu positiivsena. Tõenäoliselt näeme suuri defitsiite USA-s lähiaastatel ja loodan, et toimub paradigma muutus.

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Government Advisor: Germany Should Quit Euro

Government Advisor: Germany Should Quit Euro

Germany should withdraw from the euro zone to save the European Union, said Roland Berger, the doyen of German strategy consultants, in an interview…..

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Hiinlased loobuvad USA võlakirjadest, kas maailmalõpp?

Japan Overtakes China as Largest Holder of U.S. Treasuries

China’s holdings of U.S. Treasuries declined to the lowest in more than six years as the world’s second-largest economy uses its currency reserves to support the yuan. Japan overtook China as America’s top foreign creditor, as its holdings edged down at a slower pace.

A monthly Treasury Department report showed China held $1.12 trillion in U.S. government bonds, notes and bills in October, down $41.3 billion from the prior month and the lowest investment since July 2010. The portfolio of Japan decreased for third month, falling by $4.5 billion to $1.13 trillion, according to the data. Collectively, the two nations account for about 37 percent of America’s foreign debt holdings…

Et selline on reaalsus. Hiina loobub USA  võlakirjadest, mingit paanikat ei ole, intressid taevasse ei tõuse jne. Siin on peavoolu muinasjutt Äripäevast:

Mis juhtuks, kui Hiina hülgaks USA võlakirjad?

Raha laenates peaks alati olema varuplaan juhuks, kui suur kreeditor tahab raha tagasi. See tõde kehtib igal juhul ka USA kohta, kelle võlgnevus Hiina ees on umbes triljon dollarit.

Hiina on ametlikult Ühendriikide suurim võlausaldaja, kellele kuulub umbes 900 miljardi dollari väärtuses võlakirju ja kui siia lisada Hongkongi osalus, siis summa ületab ühe triljoni piiri. Seega võiks Hiina teha USA võlaturule suurt kahju, kui hakataks võlga suurtes kogustes müüma.

Enamike ekspertide sõnul hakkas USA selliste märkide ilmnemisel rõhutama enda kodanike südametunnistusele laenata rohkem raha avalikule sektorile, täpselt samamoodi nagu tehti Teise maailmasõja ajal, ning otsides sõbralikke välisriike, kes oleks valmis ostma täiendaval hulgal ameeriklaste võlga.

Ilmselt pöördutaks ka pankade poole, paludes neil võlakirjadesse rohkem investeerida ning viimase võimalusena nähakse Föderaalreservi abi, kuigi see kujutaks juba suurt ohtu dollari tugevusele.

Tavapäraselt pole peavoolu jutt reaalsusega kooskõlas. Fake News?

USA on halvemas seisus kui Kreeka

USA on pankrotis. Ei suurem kulutamine ega väiksem maksustamine aita riigil oma võlgu tasuda.

 

 

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Skidelsky: trumpism ei ole fašism

 

Lord Skidelsky Refuses to Equate Trumpism with Fascism

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