Trump Will Not Back Down From Trade War, Says Kingston’s Keen

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Steve Keen Varoufakise raamatust

Steve Keen kirjutab Yanis Varoufakisest ja tema raamatust. 

As the tragedy of Syriza unfolded in 2015, I had wished that Yanis would deploy the one Big Stick he had: the threat to default from Greece’s unpayable loans from the IMF. On its own this was not significant, but as he explains in the book, it would in turn have triggered a cascade of defaults that would have undone Mario Dragi’s program of Quantitative Easing.

He did, once, have his finger on that trigger, and decided not to pull it–to wait and leave the act to Tsipras. Looking back in this book, he now wishes he had done so. If he had, he could have forced the Troika to work with Greece on a sensible program, rather than watch them impose one which will lead to Greece becoming Europe’s Somalia.

Jama. Kreeka ei oleks saanud troikat millekski sundida. Nii kaua, kui Kreeka jätkab euroga ja tal on kaubandusdefitsiit, ei saa mingit mõistlikku programmi olla, veel vähem saab Kreeka kedagi millekski sundida. Defaultimine ei oleks olnud mingi suur malakas. Kreeka vajub sügavamale ja sügavamale võlaauku, mingit programmi olla ei saa. Kreeka “maksab” praegu riiklikke varasid rahvusvahelistele pankuritele (erastades), rüüstamine toimub juba mitmeid aastaid.

Kreeka poliitikud sidusid silmuse ümber 10 miljoni kreeklase kaela 2001-l aastal, kui nad euroga liitusid. Kreeka poliitikud valetavad praegu rahvale ja räägivad, et nad on mingisuguse rahva poolt mittevalitud eliidi ohvrid. Ei ole, nemad ise on osa sellest scammist. Mürk, mida nad kasutavad, on euro.

Yanis Varoufakis kirjutas raamatu 560 lehekülge! Ma kirjeldan hästi lühidalt, milles Kreeka problem on.

Kreeka valitsus ei saa eurosid luua õhust nagu pangad ja troika seda saavad. Kreekal on kaubandusdefitsiit, mis tähendab, et ta ei saa eurosid välismaalt läbi kaubavahetuse. Kreeka valitsus peab eurosid laenama pankadelt ja troikalt. Kreeka vajub järjest sügavamale võlaauku ja riiklikud varad lähevad erastamisele. See on koloniseerimine.

Yanis Varoufakis on eurofiil, tema jutt on lollus läbi ja lõhki, sest ta ignoreerib neid lihtsaid fakte. Ta saab palju kajastust peavoolu meedias, sest ta ajab tavakodaniku segadusse. Ta ei saa päris hästi aru, mis toimub. Kreeka kammaijaa ajal võttis ta ühendust Mosleriga ja Mosler mainis hiljem, et Yanis on segaduses.

Kui te mäletate, siis Yanis rääkis intervjuudes, et mingeid kapitali kontrolle ei tule, mõne päeva pärast olid Kreekas kapitali kontrollid. Ta on ebakompetentne. Dimitris Kazakis näiteks väidab, et Varoufakis on “con artist”.

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Ashoka Mody – German social democrats have alienated their base and fractured Europe

Ashoka Mody – German social democrats have alienated their base and fractured Europe

…The euro has proved to be fundamentally at odds with social democracy. In its most successful Swedish version, social democracy has been a nationally legitimate social contract to redistribute resources among those who share historical and cultural ties. The straitjacket of the euro ideology, however, places the burden of national competitiveness on lower workers’ wages; and it enforces ill-timed and excessive fiscal austerity measures that limit options in domestic economic policymaking. The euro, therefore, prevents the formation of domestic alliances that could create “a sense of national purpose.” The policy straitjacket is reinforced by the presumption that each national ship must face the risk of sinking to its own bottom, a presumption that undermines the Blair-Schröder call for a “common destiny within the European Union.”

April, 2018, Wiesbaden: Andrea Nahles, the new SPD party leader, presents former party leader Martin Schulz with a picture. Bernd von Jutrczenka/ Press Association. All rights reserved.European social democrats have continued to haemorrhage support. The conclusion seems sadly inescapable. On its current course, unable to generate a domestic consensus and powerless to counter the narratives and priorities dictated by the euro, the political practice of social democracy will continue to fail at home while divisions among member nation states deepen.

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Termin “Modern Monetary Theory” ilmub esmakordselt Maailmapanga veebileheküljel

What’s new in social protection – May edition

 

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Sacrificing at the Altar of the Euro

Jacobinis pikk artikkel euro kohta, ka Mosleri eurost loobumise plaanist.

Sacrificing at the Altar of the Euro

….However, it is important to recognize that the European currency is a political project as much as it is an economic one. European elites welcomed the external constraint of the European Monetary Union (EMU) as a way of depoliticizing economic policy, removing macroeconomic policies from democratic and parliamentary control through a self-imposed reduction of national sovereignty.
Their aim was not simply to insulate economic policies from popular-democratic challenges, but also to reduce the political costs of the neoliberal transition by putting the responsibility for unpopular measures onto external institutions and factors….

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Saksamaa SKP per capita versus Itaalia SKP per capita

Ma arvan, et uued valimised Itaalias ei tooks eriti teistsugust tulemust praegusest.

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Kaasaegne tööjaotus

Modern division of labour …

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Keskpankade rahatrükk ja inflatsioon

Siin on nüüd näha, kuidas keskpankade “rahatrükk” inflatsiooniga seondub. Täna on kurja vandujaid juba vähem, aga mõned aastad tagasi oli neid veel küllalt, kes väitsid, et selllest tuleb inflatsioon. Fed ja ECB on tohutult likviidsust lisanud, aga inflatsiooniga seost ei paista olevat, pigem on see olnud deflatsiooniline. MMT on alati väitnud, et valitsuse defitsiitne kulutamine ilma võlakirja väljastamata (pangareserve krediteerides) ei ole inflatsioonilisem, kui võlakirja väljastades. Minu meelest on meil tõestus täitsa olemas sellele väitele.

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Most People are Monetary Ptolemaicans – Warren Mosler & Professor Steve Keen – 6 May 2018

Keen argumenteerib kaubandusdefitsiidi vastu.

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Saksamaa ei taha midagi teada Macroni euro reformimisest

Vast mitte eriti suure üllatusena ei tule see, et Saksamaa uus rahandusminister on sotsiaaldemokraat.

Die schwarze Null continues to haunt Europe

Last Tuesday (May 15, 2018), the new German Finance Minister Olaf Scholz stood up in the German Bundestag and delivered his first fiscal policy presentation. Not only was “die schwarze Null” (Black Zero) sustained but in his address, the new German Finance Minister made it clear that Germany would not entertain any expansion of the EU fiscal capacity (thus rejecting Emmanuel Macron’s proposals) and wanted to delay other ‘reforms’ that Germany had previously suggested they would support (beefing up the Single Resolution Fund and the creation of the European Monetary Union). For those Europhile progressives who have been hanging their hat on the hope that the takeover of the German Finance Ministry by the SPD would be the deal breaker that the Scholz’s presentation was nothing short of a disaster. He reiterated Germany would not be shifting in any major way and that Member States just had to buckle down and follow Germany’s fiscal example – surpluses as far as the eye can see. None of this was a surprise to me. It has been clear for some time that Scholz is just a continuation of Schäuble. Indeed some pointed statements from Bundestag politicians next day in their responses suggested just that…

Muidugi retoorika ei ole konfliktne, see on pealiskaudselt sõbralik Macroni suhtes. Macron aga ütles nii:

Germany can no longer remain attached to maintaining budget and trade surpluses, as they are always achieved at someone else’s expense.

 

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Arenevad majandused MMT vaatevinklist

Tihti tuuakse MMT vastu selline argument, et jah USA on suur ja arenenud majandus, aga väike ja arenev majandus ei saa sellist majanduspoliitikat rakendada.

Fadhel Kaboub räägib arenevatest majandustest MMT vaatevinklist.

Ta räägib struktuursest kaubandusdefitsiidist sellistes majandustes ja toob välja 3 põhilist struktuurset põhjust.

1, Toidu tootmises puudujäägid, sellised riigid impordivad rohkem toitu kui ekspordivad ja on sõltuvuses välismaast.

2. Energia tootmise puudujääk, fossiilkütused.

3. Tööstustoodangu puudujääk, nad impordivad kõrge väärtusega kaupu(arvutid telefonid jne) ja ekspordivad madala väärtusega kaupu.

Ta väidab, et eksportimisele orienteerumine ei päästa selliseid majandusi.

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Stephanie Kelton Has The Biggest Idea In Washington

Stephanie Kelton Has The Biggest Idea In Washington

Once an outsider, her radical economic thinking won over Wall Street. Now she’s changing the Democratic Party.

..When Drobny reached out to her, Kelton agreed to stop by the 21 Club in Manhattan to talk about MMT, expecting a small event with a few friends.
“Instead, I show up and there are dozens of people, and they wanted me to talk for two hours,” said Kelton. “I had no speaking notes, nothing.”
The 21 Club is not Crazy Beans. Frequented by presidents, CEOs and celebrities from Ernest Hemingway to Jay-Z, its private dining menu features $180 sea bass and four-figure wine bottles. Drobny’s firm bills itself as a macroeconomic research outfit, but it’s more like an expensive, exclusive club for very rich, very eccentric intellectuals, including Peter Thiel — people who own private islands and financial gurus who leave jobs at Goldman Sachs because the money isn’t good enough…

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Itaaliast häid uudiseid, bot bot bot minibot

 

March of the mini-BoTs may bring down the euro

 

The menace of Italian treasury bills known as “mini-BoTs” has made European monetary policy interesting again. In the past two years, the eurozone seemed to have overcome its existential threats thanks to the European Central Bank’s relentless bond purchases. Bond markets were achieving a near-Canadian level of boredom, marked by slow increases in long rates, a moderate recovery and too little volatility to justify traders’ bonuses.That changed with the March 4 election in Italy. In coming weeks we will see if the populist parties can stitch together a coalition and avoid a new vote. They do, though, agree that their tax cuts and aggressive spending can be paid for in part by issuing mini-BoTs. These would be small (euro) denomination, non-interest-bearing Treasury bills in the form of bearer securities that would be secured by tax revenues.“BoT” is the abbreviation for an Italian treasury bill, and the small denomination makes them mini. Conventional BoTs are electronic book-entry securities but the mini-BoTs would be printed, reportedly using the state lottery’s ticket presses, and the designs have been selected.Private parties would not be obliged to accept mini-BoTs as payment. While mini-BoTs would almost certainly trade at a discount in the marketplace, the paper (or book entries) could be used to settle tax debts or pay public-sector entities at the mini-BoTs’ par value.Despite this, the populist parties, led by the Lega Nord and the Five Star Movement, continue to insist that mini-BoTs would not be a parallel currency or a backdoor way to add to the national debt. The populists vow to respect the EU’s Treaty of Lisbon and under Article 106 of that pact only the ECB can issue the euro currency.

The populists also say that mini-BoTs will not increase the Italian national debt, supposedly limited by the eurozone’s stability pact. Mini-BoTs, they say, are simply a way of creating a transferable record of (future) tax receipts. Since the mini-BoTs would not be currency, transfers from account to account or hand to hand would not be subject to the €3,000 legal limit on cash payments within Italy. That would be convenient for anyone whose business could be more easily carried out with large cash, sorry, mini-BoT transactions. Mini-BoTs, then, would stimulate the vibrant informal sector of Italy’s economy.This is not the first time a government facing limits on bond borrowings has issued a tax anticipation note. California used them during a budget crunch in 2001 and Buenos Aires issued “Patacon” bonds to pay its bills in 2001-02, in the wake of the Argentine financial crash. These were ultimately redeemed with tax receipts.When Syriza came to power in Greece in 2015, Yanis Varoufakis, its first finance minister, proposed a form of “public digital payments”, that would, it was expected, feature “future tax-backed transactions.”

The Italian populists took advice on how to structure mini-BoTs from the Syriza socialists and Greek civil servants. None of those instruments, though, were printed bearer transactions. Even Greeks who empathise with the Italian resentment of Eurocrats were put off by that feature.Central bankers and eurozone finance ministers have been balanced in their reaction to the mini-BoT proposal. Balanced, that is, between outrage and apoplexy. The Eurocrats believe the mini-BoT plan is another plot to rip off the foreigners. That may be true but it would not be the whole story. Mini-BoTs would also be a way for connected Italians to rip off their less-connected fellow nationals.Multiple exchange rates are an old trick but that can work for a while. The Eurocrats believe mini-BoTs will be a veiled way to finance populist deficit spending. If that is permitted, the establishment thinking goes, the conventionally minded eurozone voting public would rebel at the debasement of their currency.The populist retort would be that Italian compliance with orthodoxy has led to stagnation and youth unemployment. True enough — but young people without jobs would not be beneficiaries of mini-BoTs.

No, the big profits would go to those who would buy mini-BoTs from pensioners and state creditors at a discount, say 20 or 30 per cent. They will then sell the quasi-currency to deep-pocketed buyers of Italian goods and services, or property and equities. There would also be an internal redistribution. Roughly speaking, northern Italian industry and skilled workers would receive the value of export subsidies, and payments to southern Italian pensioners and state employees would get haircuts.If mini-BoTs are introduced on a large scale, political strains would eventually force either Italy or Germany out of the euro. Having done its damage, the minibot scheme would ultimately be wound up.

Igati positiivne, eks muidugi eurokraadid ole raevus. Nüüd tuleb soovida kindlat meelt Itaalia uuele koalitsioonile. Kui nad ei luba konverteeritavust eurosse ja aktsepteerivad neid maksude maksmisel valitsusele, siis on tegemist väga hea plaaniga ja see peaks töötama. Nad ütlevad, et see ei ole raha või valuuta, mis on minu meelest hea strateegia.

Samas ei ole minu meelest põhjust ka arvata, et see kõik vaibub seekord, sest nn Lega Nord on populaarsust kasvatanud ja nemad on järeleandmatumad euro osas tegelikult 5-star rääkis juba ammu, et ajad on muutunud ja eurost loobumist nad enam ei toeta.

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Itaalias paistab hullus maad võtvat, mama mia!

Itaalias paistab asi aia taha minevat. Kui see info, mis praeguseks lekkinud on, on õige, siis tahavad populistid 250 miljardit Itaalia võla andeksandmist/kustutamist.  See idee on ka enne ringlenud ja tavaliselt hüppavad vasakpoolsed ruttu selle vaguni peale. Võla kustutamine tähendab, et erasektor jääb nii paljust finantsvaradest ilma. Seda ideed on mingil kujul ka enne rakendatud Kreeka võla osas, kui oli nn haircut ja see põhjustas probleeme hiljem Küprose panganduses, kus Küprose pankadel tekkisid probleemid kapitaliga. Kui sulle jäävad sellised mõisted nagu kapital segaseks, siis ütleme nii, et see põhjustas pankrotte Küprosel. Võid ette kujutada, et sul on firma ja firmadel on kohustused ning varad. Kohustused on on nõuded sinu vastu, need kajastuvad bilansis miinusmärgiga, varad on sinu firma nõuded teiste vastu ja need kajastuvad bilansis plussmärgiga. Nüüd võid ette kujutada, et Itaalia valitsuse võlg tühistatakse ja sinu firma varad tühistatakse koos sellega. Sulle tehti tünga, aga kuna arvatakse, et valitsuse võlg on tohutu probleem, siis püütakse sellest lahti saada. MMT vastupidiselt prevaleerivale hullusele väidab, et valitsuse võlga on liiga vähe ja see on problem tervele majandusele. Kahjuks elame ajastul, kus ignorantsus domineerib. Ma tõesti ei usu, et Itaalia populistid oleksid segatud neoliberaalsesse vandenõusse, vaid arvan, et nad ongi ignorantsed. Probleem on selles, et nii vasakpoolsed kui parempoolsed näevad valitsuse võlga probleemina, millest tuleks lahti saada või millest tuleks vabaneda.  Selles osas on ignorantsus universaalne.

Kohe võiks nüüd väita, et ma ei esita seda lugu päris õigesti, et populistid tahavad ju seda võlga tõhistada, mis on QE-ga kokku ostetud keskpangal. Keskpangal ei ole niisugusi volitusi, et raha välja anda ja miinusesse sattuda. Need inimesed lihtsalt ei saa aru, millest nad räägivad. Nad kavatsevad jätkata euroga!

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Tööprogrammist ja MMT-st

Praegusi argumente jälgides, mis on töögarantii vastu, tundub mulle, et meie eluajal seda ei tule (ma räägin argumentidest, mis tulevad vasakult).Räägitakse näiteks, et see on gigantne projekt, mida on väga keeruline administreerida jne. Lühidalt öeldes puudub selleks poliitiline tahe. Ollakse oma mugavutsoonis, et ega kõige hullem ju pole. Kui me ajaloost ka vaatame neid asju, siis on selliste suurte programmide puhul olnud ikka midagi sellist, mis on inimesi häirinud. Näiteks Suur Depressioon oli niisugune sotsiaalne katastroof või 2. Maailmasõda, siis ei räägitud, et seda programmi on liiga keeruline administreerida.

Lisaks sellele on USA meedia kallutatus minu jaoks üsna ilmne. Näiteks avaldatakse töö garantiid positiivses valguses kajastavaid artikleid, kui need räägivad osariigi tasemel niisugusest programmist, aga föderaalset programmi näidatakse negatiivses valguses. Osariigi tasemel on selline programm määratud nurjumisele, sest osariik ei ole monetaarne suverään.

Ega majandused kokku ei kuku, kui niisuguseid programme pole. Minu jaoks on see inflatsiooniankur, aga samas ka midagi, mis vähendab ebavõrdsust ühiskonnas ja suurendab ühiskonna sidusust. Minu hinnangul ka kasvaks selline majandus kiiremini.

Mis puudutab teisi MMT ideid, siis nende suhtes olen ma optimistlikum. Esiteks on reaalne elu prevaleeriva paradigma kitsaskohad kätte näidanud ja näiteks Mario Draghi räägib, et fiskaali on vaja stimuleerimiseks, teiseks on MMT ideed juba üsna palju positiivset tuntust kogunud. Kui 5 aastat tagasi oli veel küllat  neid, kes ütlesid, et vaata kulla hinda ja rahatrükk või valitsuste defitsiitne kulutamine viib hüperinflatsioonini, siis täna on neid väga vähe järele jäänud ja neid, kes on, ei võeta tõsiselt.

Postkeinsitide monetaarteooria on õigeks  osutunud ka väga paljude skeptikute arvates.  Meie olime need, kes väitsid võlakriisi ajal, et keskpank võiks lihtsalt trükkida ja inflatsiooni sellest ei tuleks (kuigi me kunagi ei ole soovitanud seda lahendusena, see oli lihtsalt teoreetiline idee). Meie olime need, kes väitsid, et fiskaalpoliitika stimuleerib ja monetaarpoliitilised meetmed on parimal juhul segased. Mario Draghi küll ei ütle, et monetaarpoliitika üldse ei tööta, vaid  ta väidab, et monetaarpoliitilised meetmed on ammendunud ja eriti rohkem teha ei saa ning, et vaja oleks fiskaali. Seda räägib ta ka eurotsooni tasakaalutuse kohta, mis jällegi oli MMT ja postkeinsistide väide algusest peale, et eurotsoon on valesti loodud rahaliit, sest puuduvad fiskaalsed permanentsed ülekanded (anna mulle parem väljend “fiscal transfer”) liikmesriikide vahel. Kui sa kuuled kelleltki niisugust väidet, et MMT on umbjama peale seda kõike, siis sa arvatavasti saad aru, miks kibestunud kaotajad midagi niisugust väidavad ja kes umbjama ajanud on aastaid.

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Italy, A Parallel Currency, And Immigration – Merkel’s Worst Nightmare

Italy, A Parallel Currency, And Immigration – Merkel’s Worst Nightmare

 

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Does the rising deficit matter?

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JOB GUARANTEE

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Sotsiaaldemokraadid Saksamaal

Germany’s budget is an accident waiting to happen

 

The observation that the eurozone is unsustainable does not lead ineluctably to a forecast that it will necessarily break apart. But there are events that greatly increase the likelihood of that outcome. Last week’s German budget is one of them. Olaf Scholz, Germany’s new Social Democratic finance minister, has proposed a budget with the following characteristics: a nominal cut in investment; a reduced ratio of defence spending to gross domestic product; a freezing of funds for development aid at 0.5 per cent of GDP; and a lower contribution to the next EU budget than what he himself had previously suggested…

Saksamaa rahandusminister on sotsiaaldemokraat. Võib olla oskab mulle keegi seletada, et kuidas sotsid näiteks parempoolsetest konservatiividest erinevad? Minu loogika on selline, et mis ma neist sotsidest siis valin, vaid valin kohe paremkonservatiive. Meil toimus ka väidevalt vasakpööre, oled sa märganud? Võib olla on mingisugused kosmeetilised erinevused RE-st.

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Diskussioon MMT suunal

The Guardian view on a job guarantee: a policy whose time has come

Victor Hugo once remarked: “You can resist an invading army; you cannot resist an idea whose time has come.” Today, in the United States, a job guarantee seems just such an idea. Progressives of all shades – from Cory Booker to Bernie Sanders – have embraced policies that to varying degrees say the state should seek to do away with involuntary unemployment. This is a welcome return to a politics of work, which has been missing for too long from advanced economies. It is also heartening that polls suggest the job guarantee is popular, with half of voters backing it. This seems starkly at odds with America’s apparently low unemployment figures. The reality is that the unemployment rate only counts those who are actively seeking employment, missing out the millions not seeking work altogether. When those people are included too, it turns out that about one in seven working-age men in the US are actually jobless. The cumulative effect on communities is a layering of despair. A job guarantee offers hope in what for many are desolate times.

Guardian peab töö garantiid heaks ideeks. Nüüd on vaid aja küsimus, kui meil ka sõnavõtte sel teemal saab kuulda.

Billy blogisse on link ja väidetakse, et UK väljastab oma valuutat ning saab jõude seisvaid ressurrse osta. Mine tea, neil võib õigus olla? MMT on aga debatti kõvasti liigutanud, seda ei saa salata. Ma usun, et reaktsioon”väljastab oma valuutat ja see ei saa tal otsa” saab olema, “me teadsime seda”.

 

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Mosler-Keen debate 4PM NYT/9PM GMT Sunday May 6: my points of contention with #MMT

Mosler-Keen debate 4PM NYT/9PM GMT Sunday May 6: my points of contention with #MMT

The debate is now confirmed for a more reasonable hour for me (10PM in Amsterdam) than first proposed (2AM!). So Warren and I will now debate the finer points of MMT and economics in general. At the allotted time, go to https://www.facebook.com/RealProgressive/ and you should be able to watch the debate live. Steve Grumbine will be chairing, and I expect firing questions at myself and Warren.
To “telegraph my punches”, of course, in general, I agree with MMT: it is based on the proper accounting of the creation and destruction of money in a mixed fiat/credit monetary economy. Government spending in excess of taxation is (a) perfectly feasible, (b) creates money (and net financial assets for the private sector, without which the non-bank financial sector would necessarily be in net negative equity), and (c) is limited by its practical effects, rather than the prospect that the government can run out of its own promises to pay…..

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“EU policy initiatives, by accident or design, are a crime against humanity. They will lead to the destruction of a civilisation.” Warren Mosler

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Töö garantii

USA-s on palju artikleid nüüd, kus käib töö garantii üle arutelu. MMT-lased paistavad kärsitud olevat nagu ikka, aga mina märkan suurt võitu MMT jaoks juba praegu. Laualt on kadumas/kadunud küsimus, et me ei saa seda lubada või meil pole selleks raha ja asendunud on see vastaste suhteliselt läbimõtlematute argumentidega, mis kõlavad umbes selliselt, et aga kui te maksate living wage või siis sellist palka, millel saab ära elada, siis ju peavad ka praegused töökohad(kus seda seni ei tehtud) sellist palka maksma ja see muudab tööturgu vms  🙂

Daaa? Kas sa arvad, et peaksid eksisteerima sellised töökohad, kus makstakse palka, millel inimesed ära elatud ei saa? Lühidalt ajavad MMT-lased oma oponendid üsna ruttu nurka nagu ikka. Tahaks loota, et see mulle ainult suuremana ei tundu, kui ta seda on. USA tundub Euroopast kõvasti ees olevat selles vallas. Vasakpoolsus näitab ka oma tõelist neoliberaalset nägu USAs. USA on ikka vedaja olnud kõiges tavaliselt ja euro-neoliberaalidele soovin head lõppu.

https://www.thedailybeast.com/dems-job-guarantee-isnt-nearly-as-easy-as-it-sounds?ref=author

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Hommikust meelelahutust

Watch this for early signs the U.S. is tipping toward a debt crisis, says Deutsche Bank

 

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