….And he would certainly have wanted to keep Britain out of the eurozone. Because, above all, he would have wanted to retain the commitment to full employment. If this was not possible at the European level, and he would have doubted if there was enough theoretical and institutional support for this, then national policy must be free to secure it.So Keynes would have been on the cusp: the problem, as in the early 1930s, was that the right kind of people had the wrong ideas, and the wrong kind of people at least some of the right ideas. And today Europe has yet to produce someone of the stature of Franklin D Roosevelt, capable of bridging the divide.
Itaalia referendum toob tõenäoliselt lõpu eurole ja EL-le. Referendumi jah kampaaniast on saanud pro EL-i ja pro globaliseerumise kampaania ja kuna Renzi on lubanud tagasi astuda “ei” korral, siis näevad populistlikud jõud oma võimalust. Renzi on nüüd lahti öelnud sellest lubadusest, kuid arvatakse, et ta ikkagi astub tagasi. Referendum on tegelikult efektiivsema valitsemise nimel konsitutsiooni muudatuse üle, aga üldsuse jaoks tähendab see referendum midagi muud. See on võimalus establishmentile vastu hakata, see on võimalus eurost loobuda. Beppe Grillo on lubanud referendumi korraldada euro osas ja on rääkinud eurosüsteemi vastu ning tema sooviks, et Itaalia rahaliidust välja astuks. Ennetähtaegsed valimised võivad Grillole võimaluse anda.
Brexitil ja Itaalia referendumil on ühiseid jooni, establishment külvab hirmu ja paanikat “ei” suunal Itaalias ja Brexiti suunal UK-s tehti seda. Rahandusministeerium väitis, et töökohad kaovad ja investeeringud lakkavad riiki tulemast ja seda ainult exit valimistulemuse põhjal. Tänaseks võib öelda, et see ennustus on valeks osutunud. Samuti väidab enamus pankureid, et nad ei kavatse Londonist ära kolida. Remain pooldajad pritsivad muidugi endiselt tatti ja tahavad uut referendumit, soovivad, et valitsus eiraks rahva tahet referendumil, räägivad, et referendumid ongi problemaatilised jne.
Itaalia jah propagandistid ütlevad, et ei korral kukub 8 rahvuslikku panka kokku jne, tuttav taktika Brexiti eelsest ajast. Kui Reagani ja Thatcheri ajast sai tuttavaks TINA (There Is No Alternative) neoliberaalsetele reformidele, siis nüüd on sellega liitunud ka pro EL-i jõud ja valdav enamus vasakpoolseid (end sotsiaaldemokraatia sildiga ehtijad, marksistid, kommunistid jne). Suur osa neist tahab rahvusriike hävitada ja nende väide on: There Is No Alternative (lisaks sellele süüdistavad vasakpoolsed kõiki, kes nende ideedega ei nõustu, rassismis ja fašismis). Meil Eestis räägivad nad, et Venemaa tuleb meile kallale, kui EL laguneb, Itaalias, et pangad kukuvad kokku, UK-s, et töökohad kaovad jne.
Itaalia majandus pole praktiliselt üldse kasvanud euroga liitumise ajast. Euroopa surub peale kasinust ja neoliberaalseid reforme, mida Renzi ka saaks läbi viia, kui referendumilt jah tuleks. Seega igal juhul on Itaalial kasulik ei öelda referendumil. Ma ei näe mingit ratsionaalset põhjust euroga jätkamiseks Itaalial.
Italy’s referendum will COLLAPSE EURO – chilling warning from investor who forecast Brexit
AN INVESTOR who correctly predicted Britain would leave the European Union (EU) before the referendum has now forecasted the euro will collapse.
Jim Mellon, the Chairman of the Burnbrae Group, has warned the currency will become a victim in the growing anti-establishment surge which will cause the EU to fracture – all within five years.
He said: “Brexit is going to be a sideshow to the problems of Europe that are becoming more and more evident.
“The euro as it stands at the moment is just a very inappropriate mechanism — I give the euro between one and five years of life.”
…That scepticism has looked increasingly justified in the months since the referendum. The first prediction to go awry was that the economy would plunge into instant recession. It didn’t.
When the economy showed signs of resilience, there was a second prediction: the unexpected strength was driven by consumer spending and a different picture would be painted when figures for investment came in. Figures for investment were published last week. It was up in the third quarter…..
So white officer Alan Horujko who shot and killed the Black Somali stabbing suspect in Ohio is being paraded as a hero. Thats interesting
…Not only is Fillon out of touch economically, he is an ardent Europhile in an age when Euroscepticism is sweeping Europe. Fillon is as far from a political revolutionary as one can get, he is a member of the old establishment who like a broken clock, is correct twice a day.
By contrast, Marine Le Pen’s policies are demonstrative of the traditional conservative movements which have swept the west from America to Hungary, Britain to Austria. Her views are consistent with a broad movement favouring protectionism over free-trade globalism, patriotism against the supra-nationalism of the European Union, traditional culture vis-à-vis post-cultural internationalism and what’s more, her views on Russia and immigration matters are far more clear and consistent than those of Fillon….
…..The choice is clear. It’s between tomorrow’s woman and yesterday’s man. What’s more, I believe she will be the next president of The Fifth Republic.
Adam Garrie usub, et Marine Le Pen saab presidendiks. Antud ajal ma loodan, et see nii läheb. Teistsugust lahendust ma praegusele olukorrale ei näe. Ma pean tunnistama, et lasin ennast vahepeal ära petta vasakliberaalide ilukõnedest. Vasakliberaalid on need, kes globaalset neoliberalismi täiega toetavad. Ei ole üldse juhuslik, et vasakliberaalid on kreeklased nägima pannud või, et nad Brexiti ja Trumpi vastu nii ägedalt sõdivad.
My liberal friends sometimes ask me why I don’t devote more of my science journalism to the sins of the Right. It’s fine to expose pseudoscience on the left, they say, but why aren’t you an equal-opportunity debunker? Why not write about conservatives’ threat to science?
My friends don’t like my answer: because there isn’t much to write about. Conservatives just don’t have that much impact on science. I know that sounds strange to Democrats who decry Republican creationists and call themselves the “party of science.” But I’ve done my homework. I’ve read the Left’s indictments, including Chris Mooney’s bestseller, The Republican War on Science. I finished it with the same question about this war that I had at the outset: Where are the casualties?….
Economists are too detached from the real world and have failed to learn from the financial crisis, insisting on using mathematical models which do not reflect reality, according to the Bank of England’s chief economist Andy Haldane…..
Nobel Prize-winning economist Joseph Stiglitz predicted in a interview out on Wednesday that Italy and other countries would leave the euro zone in coming years, and he blamed the euro and German austerity policies for Europe’s economic problems…..
…Trumpism is a crisis for the most prestigious methods of understanding economic and social life, ennobled and enthroned by the metropolitan academy of the last third of a century. It has caused mainstream ‘social science’ to fall like a deck of cards. It can only save itself through comprehensive reinvention, from the ground up.
Trump tuli ja Trump läheb, aga jäljed jäävad. Peavoolu majandusteadus võib end põlema panna.
Nii kaua, kui defitsiidi hüsteeria ei kao ja prevaleerib eelarve tasakaalu dogma, nurjuvad need poliitilised jõud rohkem või vähem, mis valitseda püüavad.
Ha-Joon Chang – Bad Samaritans: The Myth of Free Trade and the Secret History of Capitalism
… had the Japanese government followed the free-trade economists back in the early 1960s, there would have been no Lexus. Toyota today would, at best, be a junior partner to some western car manufacturer, or worse, have been wiped out. The same would have been true for the entire Japanese economy … Japan would have remained the third-rate industrial power that it was in the 1960s, with its income level on a par with Chile, Argentina and South Africa … it was then a country whose prime minister was insultingly dismissed as ‘a transistor-radio salesman’ by the French president, Charles De Gaulle.
But could a Clinton Administration have done much better? Probably not. Both the Clinton Democrats and almost all Republicans represent the corporate status quo that favors markets versus wages; Wall Street versus Main Street. That’s why the American public and indeed global citizens will continually take a wrong turn in their efforts to neuter the establishment and to regain several decades’ lost momentum in real wages versus real profits. Neither party as they now stand has bold policies beyond the reach of K Street Lobbyists. To my mind, there are better solutions than either party’s election platform, such as a Keynesian/FDR job corps or a Kennedyesque AmeriCorps that puts people to work helping other people. Such programs were never emphasized by either candidate. Let’s supplement welfare with a patriotic “Help America” jobs program, even if government organized. Would it be as efficient as a corporate-led effort? Of course not, but corporations are fighting structural headwinds, such as demographic aging, technological displacement of jobs (robotization), deglobalization, and overleveraged balance sheets. They focus on the bottom line as opposed to the public welfare. Government must step in, not by reducing taxes, which will only increase profits at the expense of labor, but by being the employer of last resort in hopefully a productive way.
Remember all those times the Republicans in Congress shut down the government and threatened to default on the debt? The ostensible cause was the out of control deficit. Back in the day when President Obama was drafting the budget, these Republicans were arguing that the national debt threatened the well-being of our children and grandchildren. They claimed to view deficit reduction as a sacred cause.
Well, we’re about to see a religious conversion of world historic size as the Republican Party, and its congressional leader Paul Ryan, convert from deficit hawks to big spenders. With Donald Trump in the White House, we’re going to discover that they think large deficits are just fine.
Irrational exuberance? Dow Jones Industrial just tops 19k for first time in history.
The issue now is about Americans looking to not get f—ed over. If we deliver” — by “we” he means the Trump White House — “we’ll get 60 percent of the white vote, and 40 percent of the black and Hispanic vote and we’ll govern for 50 years.
Prantsusmaal on olukord selline, et tõenäoliselt võidab presidendivalimised Marine Le Peni vastu neoliberaalne, kuid sotsiaalselt konservatiivne Fillon.
Fillon, who has said he will cut public sector jobs and rein in government spending, won 44 percent of votes in Sunday’s first-round of voting for the center-right’s nomination. He faces a second-round vote against another former prime minister, Alain Juppe, who trailed him by 15 percentage points.
Pole raske näha, et Filloni poliitika nurjub ja see toob üht- või teistpidi Le Peni võimule tulevikus. Vasakpoolseid pildil pole, sest Hollande on reetnud kõik, mille eest nad seisavad ja on monumentaalselt nurjunud. Kui tõele näkku vaadata, siis Prantsusmaa peaks eurost loobuma ja Le Pen on ainuke, kes seda rida ajab, teist valikut tulevikus ma ei näe. Selles ma ei kahtle, et Filloni poliitika nurjub, selles ka mitte, et vasakpoolsed jäävad tegelema rahva jaoks ebaoluliste küsimustega. Ei ole võimatu, et minu praegune spekulatsioon vale on ja Le Pen võidab presidendivalimised kohe.
After Brexit and Donald Trump, prepare for the return of the eurozone crisis. If Matteo Renzi, Italian prime minister, loses his constitutional referendum on December 4, I would expect a sequence of events that would raise questions of Italy’s participation in the eurozone…..
…. Italy has three opposition parties, all of which favour exiting the euro. The largest and most important is the Five Star Movement, a party that defies the usual left-right classification. The second is Forza Italia, Silvio Berlusconi’s party, which has turned rabidly anti-euro after the former prime minister was forced out of office in 2011. And the third is the separatist Lega Nord. In democratic countries, it is common that opposition parties eventually come to power. Expect that to happen in Italy too….
Pollid näitavad, et referendumil tuleb ei. Raske on mingi kindlat sündmust ennustada või selle mõju täpselt hinnata. Üks tundub olevat selge, globalism ja internatsionalism kui suund oma praegusel ideoloogilisel kujul kollapsib.