Mina ei tea, mis sina teed, aga mina lähen küll. Ma juba mõtlen küsimustele, mis talle esitan :)
Et loengud on ja ma lähen olen natuke aega jälle üliõpilane. Saan aru, et vabakuulajaid ära ei aeta. Kellaaeg peaks tööl käivatele inimeste ka sobima. Kohtumiseni.
Development Policies and Globalization
Ragnar Nurkse Visiting Professor Dr. L. Randall Wray
May 23, 24, 26, 27, 30, 31 and June 2, 3 @ 17:45-19:45.
Room is SOC-212, expect for Thursdays (SOC-414).
Address: Akadeemia tee 3
The course focuses on development and globalization issues from monetary economics and economic policy perspectives by elaborating on the monetary side of the development process from the Modern Money Theory (MMT) and other theoretical traditions that inter alia address the issues of financial fragility (crises), global imbalances as well as the related euro-area problems and the challenges for catching-up economies. The main goal would be to introduce the discourse on the role and impact of finance and financial (economic) policies on the socio-economic development process.
Brexit shows the Left arguing fiercely in favour of a club for capitalists
The strangest part of the Brexit referendum is the way that Left and Right in Britain have lined up on the opposite sides of where you’d expect them to be. The Leave campaign is being led largely by Conservatives, who have long wanted out of the EU. The Remain campaign got a big boost this month when Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn made a big speech in favour of staying in.
But there is nothing particularly conservative about leaving the EU: Sovereignty and the devolution of power have historically been left-wing causes. It was a Labour government that devolved powers to Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland. Some Labour party MPs like Tristram Hunt believe they didn’t go far enough when last in government. They have looked on with jealousy as David Cameron’s Conservatives move power to the “Northern Powerhouse” region of cities around Liverpool and Manchester. Self-determination has long been a left-wing thing.
More pointedly, there is nothing particularly left-wing about remaining in Europe. If there is one thing that the experience of Greece ought to have taught the Left, it’s that Europe is an undemocratic club for capitalists whose finances are run largely for the benefit of international banks……
Bernie Sanders and Danny Glover Exclusive on The Real News
SANDERS: First of all, thank you for recognizing what too few people do recognize, and that is when you have unemployment rates of 30, 40, 50 percent, when kids have no opportunity to stand on their own two feet, go out in the adult world, become independent, bad things happen. Thats a crisis that has got to be dealt with. So in addition to proposing a trillion-dollar jobs program, rebuilding our crumbling infrastructure, what we also have proposed is a program along with Congressman John Conyers, which focuses on youth unemployment, specifically putting young people to work, putting them in school, getting them the job training that they need. Because at the end of the day if kids have some income, and theyre doing some constructive activity, the likelihood that they get mixed up in illegal activity is much, much less.So focusing on young people especially, providing jobs and education rather than jails and incarceration would be a major priority of a Sanders administration.
JAY: And the delivery of that, would you consider a Roosevelt-style direct federal jobs program, perhaps targeting the inner cities like Baltimore?
SANDERS: Absolutely. I mean, you–.
JAY: Because when its come through the cities and the states a lot of times ordinary people dont get the money.
SANDERS: That is exactly right. There are two elements. Number one, we have to rebuild our crumbling infrastructure. That is, our roads and our bridges, our water systems, our waste water plants, airports, rail, et cetera, et cetera. But second of all, when we talk about job creation the federal money has got to go into those areas that need it the most. And what is happening in inner cities all over this country is a story that is not being effectively told. But we have crisis after crisis after crisis. Crumbling public school systems, high unemployment, mass incarceration rates. Weve got to start focusing on rebuilding inner cities in America.
JAY: So a direct federally-funded jobs program is on the table with you.
Sanders toetab föderaalvalitsuse poolt rahastatud tööprogrammi. Sandersit ei tasu segamini ajada nn progressiivsete agendaga, nn nut case’dega, kes räägivad tingimusteta põhisissetulekust.
Eesti Panga ökonomist
Säästud kasvasid endiselt kiiremini kui võlakohustused
Kuna investeerimisaktiivsus püsib väike, kasvasid 2015. aastal säästud endiselt kiiremini kui võlakohustused
Kuna mees ei saa makrost aru, siis ta teeb sellised järeldused. Tegelikult oli jooksevkonto ülejäägis. Jooksevkonto=Säästud-Investeeringud. Ükskõik milline oleks võinud olla investeerimisaktiivsus, kui jooksevkonto on positiivne, siis Säästud>investeeringud. Sellest ei saa üle ega ümber. Olgu investeerimisaktiivsus milline tahes.
Eesti majapidamised, ettevõtted ja valitsemissektor säästsid eelmise aasta neljandas kvartalis ja aasta kokkuvõttes rohkem, kui investeerisid, ning Eesti majandus oli seetõttu välismaa suhtes netolaenuandja. See tähendab, et nii nagu viimasel kuuel aastalgi, paigutati välismaale rohkem finantsvarasid, kui sealt kaasati. Sealjuures 2015. aastal finantsvarade netoväljavool kiirenes ja ulatus ligi ühe miljardi euroni ehk 5%ni SKPst.
Nüüd on siis selline kena lugu, et riik ekspordib rohkem, kui impordib ning akumuleerib finantsvarasid, EP ökonomist tunnistab seda, et säästud suurenevad, aga finantsvarad voolavad välja? Ikka sisse voolavad.
Kui sind peaks segadusse ajama see, et nad räägivad, et Eesti kaubandusbilanss oli negatiivne ja sul võib õigustatud küsimus tekkida, et aga kuidas siis Eesti eksportis rohkem, kui importis, siis nad räägivad kaupade liikumisest ainult, teenused on välja jäetud sellest. Kui kaubad ja teenused, siis oli Eesti kaubandusbilanss positiivne 2015.
Selles võid ise veenduda:
Krugman discovers the obvious
A philosophical truth, as I see it, is a truth that is obvious once you think about it but has been obscured by overwrought theory.
Paul Krugman has discovered a philosophical truth.
Here it is. There is no operational difference between:
(a) the state spending, selling bonds to ‘fund’ its spending, and then buying back the bonds, and
(b) the state spending and not issuing the bonds in the first place.
This is a point economists outside the mainstream have been making for years (see this post).
It’s obvious when you think about it. Suppose I give you $100. Then I ‘borrow’ back the $100. Then I buy back the debt from you, for $100.
Or suppose I just give you the $100.
It’s the same result…..
See on mainstreami jaoks mõistatus enamasti, et kuidas siis keskpanga “rahatrükk” inflatsiooni ei põhjusta. See ei ole mingi rahatrükk tegelikult. MMT on toonitanud seda, et rahatrükk on kullastandardi aegne mõiste ja ükski operatsioon ei ole kuigi lähedane rahatrükile. Valitsuse liigne defitsiitne kulutamine põhjustab küll inflatsiooni. Tegemist on tegelikult üsna lihtsa loogikaveaga mainstream mõtlemises. Empiirilised andmed on seni olnud nagu hane selga vesi peavoolu teooriale.
Keskpank ei kontrolli raha kogust süsteemis, see on endogeenne, intressid on eksogeensed, aga mitte kuidagi ei saa mainstream teoreetikuid seda mõistma. Vitsur ja Ross kirjutavad kapitali madalast nõudlusest seoses negatiivsete intressidega.
Aga Krugman on nende aastatega tohutult MMT-le lähenenud:
It doesn’t take fancy analysis to make this point — just an acknowledgement that in financial terms, at least, the central bank is part of the government. The Fed, for example, remits the interest it earns on government debt to the government proper, keeping only that amount it needs for operations. So for the purpose of our analysis right now, we can use the term “the government” to include the central bank.
Ta ei ole veel kohale jõudnud muidugi ja lõpetab likviidsuslõksu jutuga. Mingit likviidsuslõksu ei ole ujuvkursiga süsteemis. Aamen. :)
“… one wants to explain the empirical fact that involuntary unemployment is only associated with money-using contractual economies. In other words, real economies that do not use money and money labor contracts to organize production (e.g., feudalism, slave economies, South Sea Islanders discovered by Margaret Meed, etc) may possess important nonlinearities and even an uncertain future — but there is never an important involuntary unemployment problem. Slaves are always fully employed as well as are serfs in feudalism…….Finally it should be noted that herds of animals, schools of fish, etc organize together to solve the economic problems of What? How? For Whom? Without using money, contracts or markets, these animals still face complex nonlinear problems in their search for food and interaction with other herds. Yet animals never suffer from involuntary unemployment!.
Professor Paul Davidson
University of Tennessee
Aastaid on sõbralik oldud ja igati toetatud režiimi, kus teisitimõtlejaid karistatakse, kus inimesi kividega surnuks loobitakse jne.
Saudid ähvardavad dollaritest loobuda :) Aga hea näide, kuidas Trump ja Sanders on poliitilist paradigmat muutnud. Ükskõik kes presidendiks saab, see on juba muutunud.
Why Greeks are ditching the euro for digital barter systems
When Makis Gounaris, a financial consultant based in Athens, decided to hire Spartan Security Ltd. to protect his apartment in September, he was told to choose from three payment options: cash, credit, or barter.
Gounaris paid his entire bill in “TradePoints” using Greek barter network TradeNow.
“It was a good deal,” said Gounaris, who was general secretary for public property at the Greek Ministry of Finance between 2012 and 2015. “I had already gathered quite a few TradePoints by bartering my old glasses, a digital piano and an electric razor.”
Such deals are increasingly common in Greece. As the country has moved into the latest chapter of its economic redevelopment, a barter economy that grew in popularity amid last summer’s strict capital controls has matured into what proponents say could be framework for a cashless economy…..
Kreeka puhul on ilmselge, et euro ei tööta, aga eurokommunistidele on see nagu hane selga vesi.
“ECB rahatrükk põhjustab inflatsiooni” punt on nüüd sõiduvees, sest inflatsioon kiirenes oodatud miinus 0,1%-lt nullini.
Europe’s Bond Rally Halted as Regional Inflation Revised Higher
….Then came the inflation data. The European Union’s statistics office in Luxembourgrevised March euro-zone inflation to zero, from an earlier reading of minus 0.1 percent. Economists surveyed by Bloomberg had predicted it would stay negative.
Faster inflation tends to cause bond prices to fall by eroding the value of the securities’ fixed payments. Still, a gauge of future price growth favored by ECB President Mario Draghi is at the lowest since March 1, based on closing levels……
by Thomas Fazi
The Idea You Can Skip The Nation-State Is Dangerous
Regarding Varoufakis’ movement, I don’t deny that totally rewriting the international system in a radical way would be great, and I think that is what we should aim for in the long run. But this idea that some people in the European Left have, that you can somehow skip the nation-state and change things directly at the regional or even global level, without, for example, being bothered with winning elections at home – not only do I think this is wrong, I think it is dangerous. It could be the last nail in the Left’s coffin. We have already lost terrain to the extreme Right all over Europe. The reasons for this are of course various, but it is partly because these movements and parties are the only ones who are willing to use the ‘n-word’: to speak of the ‘nation’. So unless we develop a progressive, well, a progressive nationalism sounds quite bad, so we definitely need to find a better word, but we have to develop a progressive agenda that understands that change – especially in the eurozone – must first happen at the national level. If not, we are doomed……
See ei ole üllatus, demokraatia rahvusriikides on selgelt pinnuks silmas eurokraatidele. Pane tähele selle maniaki mõttevälgatust:
Sometimes referenda are forced upon governments if there is sufficient voter support
Mõelda vaid, rahvas oma tahtega sunnib valitsust millekski, selline asi peab lõppema. Püha üritus on tähtsam rahva tahtest ja valitsuses on targemad inimesed. Tsiteerides Jürgen Ligi: on asju, mida ei saa lasta rahval otsustada, sest neil pole selleks teadmisi. Lihtsurelikel pole, aga Ligi taolistel väljavalitutel on.
EUROCRAT: “TIME FOR AN EU BAN ON REFERENDA”
Look no further than this top Eurocrat for proof of Brussels’ loathing for democracy. After Dutch voters had the gall to defy the EU last week, Fraser Cameron, a former senior adviser to the Commission, wrote this on why “it is time for an EU ban on referenda”.
“Referenda are becoming a huge problem for the EU. The latest result in the Netherlands on the Association Agreement with Ukraine is probably the worst possible outcome. If the turnout had been below 30% the Dutch government could have safely ignored the vote…
Undoubtedly there is a growing trend towards referenda. There have been over 50 in the last twenty years. Sometimes referenda are forced upon governments if there is sufficient voter support, as was the case in the Netherlands… Perhaps it is time for an EU ban on referenda!”
Pesky democracy, getting in the way of the European super-state…
UPDATE: UKIP’s Steven Woolfe gets in touch:
“Here is the EU’s disdain for democracy exposed. Fraser Cameron worked as a senior adviser to the Commission for a decade and his is a view held by many in the corridors of Brussels. He and his fellow apparatchiks don’t want the people to have a say in the future development of the European Superstate.”
IMF tahab kasvusõbralikku fiskaalpoliitikat näha.
World faces ‘lost year’ as policymakers sleepwalk towards fresh crisis, warns IMF
The world is sleepwalking into a fresh crisis as investors start to lose faith in policymakers’ ability to revive the global economy, according to the International Monetary Fund.
In its bluntest warning to date on the costs of policy inaction, the IMF said “financial and economic stagnation” could take hold unless governments prevented a “pernicious feedback loop of fragile confidence, weaker growth, low inflation and rising debt burdens” from forming….
…“Much is at stake. Additional measures are needed to deliver a more balanced and potent policy mix. If not, market turmoil may recur and intensify, said Mr Viñals.
“Monetary policy was becoming “overburdened”, the IMF said. Growth-friendly fiscal policies and wider reform would be needed to support the recovery and boost investment and consumption….
Public deficit for 2015 comes in at 5.2%, exceeding gloomiest forecasts
Spain’s 2015 public deficit came in at 5.2% of gross domestic product (GDP), according to figures released on Thursday by the National Statistics Institute.
Government sources familiar with the figures had earlier said that this number would be in the 5% range.
The €56.6 billion shortfall means that Spain has exceeded its target of 4.2% of GDP agreed with the European Commission by around €10 billion….
Näed kui halvasti, nad ei saagi oma majandust kasvama, kui defitsiiti kontrolli alla ei saa. Üle 3% defitsiit pidurdab ju kasvu ja arengut, see on astroloogide poolt ammu kindlaks tehtud, aga siis…..
Still, 2015 was also a year in which economic growth surpassed all forecasts and tax revenues jumped significantly.
Mulle meeldib see mees. Vasakpoolne, aga realist. Ei aja udu stiilis: Euroopa vajab reforme ja natsionalism ei ole vastus.
Stefano Fassina on Grexit, Euro and EU
…D.K. What do you believe is the future of European state-nations in the light of Greek and southern Europe experience? What has to do a nation if it wants to “escape” the “euro-prison”, while other nations are not ready or willing, facing the probability of “markets” retaliation?
S.F. The events of last July in Greece made it clear to everybody that European states which joined the common currency have already lost their sovereignty, and their voters’ democratic choices are irrelevant. The euro has become a cage, a prison, as you say. It enhanced asymmetries among countries, among debtors and creditors. Unaccountable bodies, such as the European Central Bank, are able to overturn democratic choices and have the last word on national policies. This is not only incompatible with any progressive policy, it is at variance with democracy itself. A radical change, a change of the European treaties would be necessary to restore democracy, to restore a space for social policies, to stop the degradation of labour and the dismantling of what remains of our welfare states. Unfortunately, I have become very pessimistic about the possibility to achieve such a change cooperatively within the euro.
D.K. You seem to exclude any possibility of deep, radical reform of euro before going for the “dissolution of euro” scenario? But nobody has ever seriously tried to push for such a reform.
S.F. I try to be realistic. Against the possibility of a change are the national interests of creditor countries, first of all Germany, supported by part of the élites in peripheral countries, who think this is an opportunity for a neoliberal restructuring of our societies. The German government has made it clear in many occasions that they will never accept anything like a transfer union, which means that they will never accept any mutualization of debt or any move to make the European Central Bank a real central bank, i.e. a lender of last resort. The current recipes on the table involve more structural reforms, i.e. neoliberal reforms of the labour market, and deeper financial integration, but do not contemplate anything close to the radical reform we have in mind. Should we move to some kind of political union, such union would reflect the current balance of power, it would institutionalize the current policy orientation. It would be institutionalized austerity.
I’m not saying a leftist government should unilaterally leave the euro. But I think that such a government should seriously consider this possibility for two reasons: first, nothing meaningful has been done to prevent a new crisis from hitting the eurozone again, and in that case a breakup of the euro is a likely outcome, no matter we want it or not; second, having a “plan B” at hand means that our bargaining position is much stronger if we want to defy the European austerity policies and in case we find ourself in a position similar to Greece in July…..
Ainuke keel, millest poliitikud aru saavad, on see, kui sa valimas käid. Sa võid ükskõik mida natsionalistide kohta arvata või öelda, aga praegu on nad ainuke jõud eurotsoonis, kes midagi muudavad.
Schaeuble vs Draghi
…On Friday evening in Kronberg near Frankfurt, Schaeuble received the Wolfram-Engels prizefrom the Stiftung Marktwirtschaft, a foundation, which according to its website, stands for“Ordoliberal thinking and action”. This was a group receptive to Schaeuble’s message and he didn’t disappoint. In comments that were picked up by a Dow Jones reporter, Schaeuble went so far as to blame Draghi for the rise of the Alternative for Germany (AfD), a new anti-immigration, anti-euro party that surged into three regional parliaments last month with stunningly strong scores. The party is seen as a rising threat to Schaeuble’s CDU and its Bavarian allies, the CSU. Here is the Schaeuble quote from the DJ story: “I said to Mario Draghi…be very proud: you can attribute 50% of the results of a party that seems to be new and successful in Germany to the design of this [monetary] policy.”…
“go go Mario” neoconid kritiseerivad nüüd monetaarpoliitikat, keskpank pidi ju sõltumatu ja iseseisev olema.
kaabukergitus Margus Eimrele
Euroopa keskpank selgitab: miks ta ei saa pankrotti minna
….EKP sõnastab selle joonealuse märkusena 10. leheküljel: «Keskpangad on kaitstud maksejõuetuse eest seeläbi, et neil on õigus luua raha, mistõttu saavad nad ka negatiivse omakapitaliga tegutseda.» Ehk siis: keskpangad ei saa pankrotti minna, kuna neile kuulub raha väljastamise õigus ning neil ei saa otsa saada miski, mis nad ise loonud on.
Kuigi on üsna ebatõenäoline, et see dokument leevendab lõplikult kriitika EKP otsuste suunal, on selles vähemalt must-valgelt kirjas, miks ei saa keskpangad ka kahjumit tootes pankrotti minna, ning sellele saab keskpank edaspidi ka kriitilisemate seisukohtade puhul viidata.
Üsna tavateadmine, aga ignorantsus on sel teemal niivõrd suur.
Teadlane soovitab Soomel kaaluda eurost loobumist
Soomel tasuks eurost loobumist tõsiselt kaaluda, kui euroala majanduskasv jääb aastateks nõrgaks ja Soome majandus ei suuda toibuda, ütles riigiteaduse doktor Heikki Koskenkylä, kes on avaldanud 71-leheküljelise analüüsi «Euroopa majandus- ja rahaliidu tulevik – kas euro suudetakse päästa?» mõttekoja Suomen Perusta väljaandes…..
Soome on meist intellektuaalselt ees, seal võtavad ühiskonnategelased euro vastu sõna või vähemalt kutsuvad üles debatile. Või on see orjamentaliteedi ja “me ei suuda ise midagi” küsimus meie puhul?
Minu teada pole meil ühtegi avalikku diskussiooni toimunud euro teemal, millel oleks ka veidi sisu. “Euro tõstab hinda, ei tõsta hinda” debatid on olnud ainult.
Brexit would be the worst of all worlds, says Varoufakis
…He and Lucas clashed with the other panellist, journalist and filmmaker Tariq Ali, who called the EU a “machine for neoliberal capitalism” and said that a UK departure would not result in economic chaos. He dismissed Varoufakis’s belief that electing progressive governments across Europe that could spur reform of the EU and blamed the bloc for the rise of the far right in countries such as Germany and France.
Despite rising xenophobia across the continent, Ali denied Varoufakis’s suggestion that fascism was a serious threat in Europe: “It’s cuckooland.” Ali suggested that a vote for Brexit could split the Conservative party to an unprecedented degree. If that was the price to pay for a UK departure from Europe, he said: “I wouldn’t be too upset.”…….
In case you thought Richard Koo understood QE:
No right answer on when the Fed could raise rates: Economist
Richard Koo ajab segast
Radical Political Economy
A Brief Sketch of the Classical-Keynesian Perspective
The rate of profit, as a ratio, has a significance, which is independent of any prices, and can well be ‘given’ before the prices are fixed. It is accordingly susceptible of being determined from outside the system of production, in particular by the level of money rates of interest (Sraffa, 1960: 33)
[…] the credit system, which has its focus in the so-called national banks and the big money-lenders and usurers surrounding them, constitutes enormous centralisation, and gives this class of parasites the fabulous power, not only to periodically despoil industrial capitalists, but also to interfere in actual production in a most dangerous manner— and this gang knows nothing about production and has nothing to do with it. (Marx 1894: 544-45).
Japan Is Fast Approaching the Quantitative Limits of Quantitative Easing
The Bank of Japan is running out of government bonds to buy.
The central bank’s would-be counterparties have become increasingly unwilling to sell the debt that monetary policymakers have pledged to buy, and the most recently issued 30-year Japanese bond didn’t record a single trade during a session last week as existing owners opted to hoard their holdings.
Ma rääkisin mõned aastad tagasi ühe meie õppejõuga sel teemal, kes on avalikkuses üsna tuntud. Jutt oli USA võlast peale seda, kui ta oli raadiointervjuus rääkinud tavapärast jama. Ma ütlesin talle, et USA võla “äramaksmine” on niisama lihtne nagu ühtede kontode debiteerimine FEDis ja teiste kediteerimine. Tema teatas selle peale, et sel on hävituslik mõju valuutale. Nüüd tuleb välja, et Jaapani Keskpangal pole varsti enam võlakirju, mida osta, aga jeen hävinenud pole. Vastupidi, jeen on tõusnud 2016 ja on üks tugevamaid valuutasid maailmas. Hea küll, see inimene ei saa monetaarsüsteemist aru, aga kui sellistele midagi öelda või viidata, et näe, sul ei olnud õigus, siis nad teatavad: me teadsime seda kõike.
Currency wars backfire for Japan and Europe
The BOJ and ECB discover that weakening a currency is tougher than it used to be
Looking back on three months’ worth of extreme market volatility it is clear that global currency wars have entered a new and more complicated phase. In effect, volatility has neutered the power of those central banks that have been most committed to weakening their currencies. The Bank of Japan provides the most notable example of impotence.
It is quite a paradox that a country with Japan’s level of public sector debt can turn into a haven in a global market storm, but that was the case in the first quarter of 2016.
The sharp appreciation of the yen against the dollar despite negative policy interest rates and the prospect of more negativity to come reverses the normal currency market laws of gravity…..